this post was submitted on 21 Sep 2024
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Just how useful is a forecast in a knife-edge election like this one, anyway? Even the insight that it could go either way is useful, Silver argues. “One potential advantage of having a forecast that says … it’s 50/50, is that people should be making their contingency plans, like, right away. It doesn’t mean you need [to stockpile] ammo and peanut butter” – that giggle again – “but it means, you know: what’s your strategy to protect American institutions in the event of a Trump second term? Or, in 2028 [or] 2032, a Trump-like Republican who maybe is more effective than Trump? If I were a liberal donor, for example, I would want to begin funding now … to protect institutions in that eventuality, instead of giving another $100,000 to Kamala Harris, who has more money than she needs.”

And while he fears a Trump win – “There were a lot of guardrails in place last time that prevented complete and utter disaster, but those guardrails have been weakened, right?” – he warns against painting it as an existential threat to democracy, at least as a political strategy. “The notion of basically holding voters hostage in that sense is very unappealing … Biden was like: ‘OK, sure, I may be running for president until I’m 86 and can barely form a complete sentence, but if you don’t vote for me, the country gets it’ – that’s a very unappealing message to swing voters … whereas Harris brings more joyfulness and is obviously a very talented woman”. He worries, though, that she has “retained too many of the Biden people who thought it was a good idea to keep running [him]. I guess she kind of had to.”

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[–] paddirn 108 points 3 months ago

That somebody like Trump has a chance in hell of winning the election again is kind of proof enough that this country is already lost.

[–] PugJesus 57 points 3 months ago (2 children)

Nate Silver isn't worth listening to.

That being said, I have my contingency plans laid out.

[–] FlyingSquid 84 points 3 months ago (1 children)

There's also this:

instead of giving another $100,000 to Kamala Harris, who has more money than she needs.

Nate Silver knows how elections work. He knows there is no such thing as more money than you need in a presidential campaign. That's an astoundingly dishonest thing to say from someone like him.

[–] apfelwoiSchoppen 41 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) (1 children)

I'll never trust that degenerate grifter anyways. When I heard he was so cocksure of his stats knowledge that he ~~lost~~ spent 10k a day on gambling, that's all I needed to never listen to him again.

At the end of the day, his prognostications are a very expensive coin flip.

Edit: see the strikethrough above.

[–] FlyingSquid 13 points 3 months ago (1 children)

I didn't hear the gambling thing about him but at this point, I'm not surprised.

[–] apfelwoiSchoppen 32 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) (1 children)

Yeah he's got a new book out which is very Tim Ferris adjacent talking about "professional risk takers" and how they risk it all to win big in their fields. Of course he talks about crypto and AI. He's a stooge.

His books blurb:

These professional risk-takers—poker players and hedge fund managers, crypto true believers and blue-chip art collectors—can teach us much about navigating the uncertainty of the twenty-first century. By immersing himself in the worlds of Doyle Brunson, Peter Thiel, Sam Bankman-Fried, Sam Altman, and many others, Silver offers insight into a range of issues that affect us all, from the frontiers of finance to the future of AI.

I don't have blue sky, but thought this thread was illustrative of the book: https://bsky.app/profile/davekarpf.bsky.social/post/3kzwvdiolld2a

[–] FlyingSquid 34 points 3 months ago (1 children)

Oh god, it's like a curated "people you should never listen to" list.

[–] Boozilla 14 points 3 months ago (1 children)

On top of all this interesting and problematic stuff about Silver himself, I think polls are very unreliable here in the post-truth world. Playing spreadsheet games with multiple polls might be marginally better. But IMO the whole thing suffers from GIGO (garbage in, garbage out). People lie to pollsters for myriad reasons. And that's just the small population of people they can even get a response from.

[–] vaultdweller013@sh.itjust.works 7 points 3 months ago

Also a lot of people just dont do polls, I have been practically spammed by polsters for the last few months via text and I shall continue to ignore them.

[–] themeatbridge 28 points 3 months ago (1 children)

Silver is using poll numbers from before the debate. It's not worthless, but it's outdated information.

But I want Democrats feeling the pressure and vote like Democracy depends on it, so I'm happy if he keeps fluffing that pillow.

[–] Webster 2 points 3 months ago

His model actually accounts for whether polls were taken before or after an event, and raises and lowers their impact and error margin based on that. Right up to the debate, his model was giving Kamala a <30% chance and it's only the inclusion of new polls since the debate that have moved her to 50%.

[–] Kit@lemmy.blahaj.zone 49 points 3 months ago (2 children)

Friendly reminder for my trans bros and sisters, please get your passport squared away and start hoarding HRT in case shit hits the fan.

[–] Cryophilia 10 points 3 months ago (3 children)

Come to California. We'll fight for you.

[–] BaroqueInMind@lemmy.one 4 points 3 months ago (1 children)

Unless if you're homeless, you can go fuck yourself if you're unhoused.

[–] Cryophilia 3 points 3 months ago

California spends more on its homeless than any other state. It's a huge part of our annual budget.

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[–] kittenzrulz123@lemmy.blahaj.zone 7 points 3 months ago (1 children)

Im not taking the risk, I have to leave this country :c

[–] Kit@lemmy.blahaj.zone 2 points 3 months ago (10 children)

Where are you going to go? It seems difficult to relocate to another country without dual citizenship

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LOL.

"Guy on book tour says something clickable!"

Who cares.

[–] Mnemnosyne@sh.itjust.works 30 points 3 months ago (2 children)

Contingency plans. Yeah. Sure. I don't think there are any that most of us can make. There aren't any countries I could move to that would be any better I don't think. I'm too old, I don't have degrees, my only job qualifications aren't particularly in demand because the training for them is fast, and the only family connection to citizenship elsewhere I had is insufficient because it's too many generations removed from me.

I suspect the cast majority of people who would be even worse off than me under another Trump/Republican administration are in just as bad if not worse a position.

[–] funkless_eck@sh.itjust.works 9 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) (1 children)

As a green card holder I do have the option of going "home" - except I own a house, have a wife, friends, a job, a car, a phone - all with payments still left on them (especially the wife waka waka waka) - obviously I'll leave if I'm literally in danger, but if I'm not and it's just that I don't like the president and it negatively affects geopolitics somewhat, on a personal level, leaving the country would be disastrous for me.

[–] argarath 5 points 3 months ago (2 children)

I know this is a bit away from the subject, but how difficult was it to get your green card? I have a boyfriend in the USA and we're planning to move in together in the near-ish future but I'm anxious about the process of getting a green card

[–] corsicanguppy@lemmy.ca 6 points 3 months ago (1 children)

H1B hire from a ways back. If you can get it in under 6 years, you're really ahead of the curve. Anticipate lawyer fees and some delay, as a pro who knows the process and a long wait were definitely part of our experience.

[–] argarath 2 points 3 months ago

Thank you! I read that it takes time and is full of layer stuff, but I just didn't know how true the things I've read up were (I've read one person say it took them 7 months from getting married to getting their green card just as an example of how those websites all you their guides for getting a green card)

[–] funkless_eck@sh.itjust.works 3 points 3 months ago

Fiance visa took about 10-11 months for entry to the country, then converting it to a 2 year green card took roughly 7 months, then when I renewed it they changed it to a 10-year one.

I think it's different with every type of visa though.

[–] BaroqueInMind@lemmy.one 6 points 3 months ago

At least go and buy a gun, so when we inevitably hunt for billionaires to cannibalize together, you can at least contribute something, for fuck sake.

[–] Phegan 25 points 3 months ago (1 children)
[–] rusticus@lemm.ee 15 points 3 months ago (2 children)

Protege of Peter Thiel. Let that sink in.

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[–] FlyingSquid 24 points 3 months ago (1 children)

I'm glad I'm a dual citizen, but I'm not sure how easily I'll get my wife over to the UK.

[–] ThePowerOfGeek 22 points 3 months ago (1 children)

This is exactly my situation. My kids and I could move over there easily and in an instant, legally. But I'm not sure what the process is for my wife.

Also, there's more to moving to another country than just the legality (and that aspect alone is insurmountable for many unsuspecting people). You're talking about leaving/moving/selling all your belongings, vehicle(s), possibly also a home. And going through the whole process of getting a new job, new schools, cultural shock for kids. And transferring money over, setting up be accounts, etc. And dealing with starting from scratch with credit scores and such. And all that would involve moving back to a country that has its own pretty profound struggles right now. It's a massive headache. But it's something we are definitely considering.

[–] FlyingSquid 22 points 3 months ago

I know, it's a really big problem. But my daughter is queer, so if Trump wins, she and I are getting out before Trump takes office. We'll just have to figure out the rest after that. Thankfully, I have friends and family over there who would be able to help.

[–] EABOD25@lemm.ee 18 points 3 months ago (2 children)

My prediction is that if Trump does win, there will be a civil war within the next 4-10 years. Each side will get backing from separate national groups. Except middle eastern countries (with the exceptional of Israel). They'll probably just sit back and watch the US burn. And staying in that state-of-mind, that would have the potential to spark WWIII.

[–] skulblaka@sh.itjust.works 10 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) (2 children)

Except middle eastern countries (with the exceptional of Israel). They'll probably just sit back and watch the US burn.

~~Hope they're cool having an awful lot less money then, the US is one of the main powers propping up the oil industry out there. We stop buying and the market collapses. It's not like Russia is going to step in to buy the surplus, and I doubt China would want to even if they probably can afford it.~~

Edit: Wow, I am completely wrong as evidenced by people below, I admit I did not look this up before speaking about it. That's my mistake.

[–] logi 7 points 3 months ago (1 children)
[–] skulblaka@sh.itjust.works 4 points 3 months ago

Wow, okay, fair enough. Edited the prior comment to reflect this. Thanks for teaching me something I should have looked up first.

[–] EABOD25@lemm.ee 4 points 3 months ago (1 children)

All they have to do is sit and wait. The Middle East still produce around 50% of the world's oil. If those countries have proven anything, it's that they're smart and resilient. Someone somewhere is going to want what they have and they could sell it for whatever cost they see fit. All they would have to do is keep their heads down and wait

[–] skulblaka@sh.itjust.works 2 points 3 months ago (1 children)

Oh they'll keep producing just fine. But when demand suddenly drops to half or less of what it was, they're going to run into trouble, and fast. America imports an absolutely ludicrous amount of oil for many purposes. If the country collapses, that supply/demand chain dries up.

Realistically, all the American Mega-Barons that are doing all this oil business will just set up shop in another country. Africa, maybe - plenty of open space and not much regulation out there. But that will take time and investment, time that existing oil supply barons may not have.

They'd probably survive, but I have a hard time seeing all of the Middle East just quietly watching America burn down when we account for probably a solid half of their budget sheets in their most profitable sector.

[–] rusticus@lemm.ee 5 points 3 months ago

America is now a net exporter and made more domestic fossil fuels last year than anytime in history.

[–] cmbabul 6 points 3 months ago

My fear is there will be some form of civil war either way, but it will be much much worse if he wins

[–] Suavevillain 18 points 3 months ago

You can't escape America's influence and policy no matter where you go.

[–] jaggedrobotpubes 14 points 3 months ago

That's for the people who have the means.

[–] SuiXi3D@fedia.io 2 points 3 months ago

I’m fucking broke. Can’t afford to move. Can barely afford rent. I get to deal with it as best I can.

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