this post was submitted on 18 Aug 2024
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EDIT: For clarification, I feel that the current situation on the ground in the war (vs. say a year ago) might indicate that an attack on Russia might not result in instant nuclear war, which is what prompted my question. I am well aware of the “instant nuclear Armageddon” opinion.

Serious question. I don’t need to be called stupid. I realize nuclear war is bad. Thanks!

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[–] [email protected] 104 points 3 months ago (2 children)

Nato would completely overwhelm Russia, but not before nukes would fly from various places and hit major cities in the western world. In the retaliation, all of Russia would be destroyed, world in turmoil...

[–] [email protected] 37 points 3 months ago (7 children)

I have some doubts that Russia's nuclear weapons are even in operational order.

maybe they try to launch them, and they just self-destruct inside their silos. or, they fly, but fall out of the sky still in Russia, or, they actually fly all the way to the destination, but fail to detonate.

to be sure, this is not something that we should wager on. I just think it would be funny if it turned out that way. just a fun little daydream of imperialist fascist scum getting put in the ground where they fucking belong.

[–] [email protected] 138 points 3 months ago (4 children)

Russia is believed to have about 6500 nuclear weapons. Even if ninety-nine percent of them fail, that's still 65 cities turned to ash.

[–] [email protected] 62 points 3 months ago

That’s a very effective visualization.

[–] [email protected] 9 points 3 months ago (8 children)

That seems like a ridiculous number of nuclear munitions. Like why so many?

[–] [email protected] 40 points 3 months ago (1 children)

I recall hearing something about real arms reduction making nuclear war seem like a sane, viable option.

The theory is that we’re safer if all sides know they can completely annihilate each other. No world leaders genuinely want nuclear war (despite what they say, threaten, or imply), so nobody launches a nuke. Flaw - that theory assumes all leaders are sane and rational.

[–] WildPalmTree 4 points 3 months ago (1 children)

"The theory"... You make it sound like MAD is some obscure fact. I so hope that is not the case. But maybe.... Fuck....

[–] [email protected] 3 points 3 months ago

I’m not trying to. This was MANY years ago, so I’m being cautious (perhaps overly so) with the wording.

[–] Imperor 28 points 3 months ago (1 children)

The US and the USSR engaged in a race to have the most nukes. After the fall of the Sowjet Union international treaties were put in place to reduce the number of nukes in both east and west.

Don't quote me, but if I remember correctly, at the height of the cold war, both sides had more than 12.000 nukes each.

Humanity had enough fire power to delete the entire globe roughly 40x over then. Why? Because bigger is better.

[–] Cryophilia 1 points 3 months ago (1 children)

That's dumb. They didn't do it just for shits and giggles. They did it because in a nuclear exchange, you only get one shot so you need to overwhelm your opponent's defenses.

[–] ilinamorato 1 points 3 months ago

Partially yes, but there's an even more mundane reason; with nuclear weapons, if the other side has 5, you need 6: five to destroy their five, and one to destroy their capital. But when they discover that, they'll decide that they need seven: 6 to destroy your 6, and one to destroy your capital. Add in some uncertainty to that feedback loop, and an arms race immediately becomes an exponential curve moderated only by the amount of time production takes and the amount of resources each nation is willing to commit at any given time.

There's a very real way in which the proliferation of arms is, itself, an uncontrolled nuclear reaction.

[–] [email protected] 14 points 3 months ago

So that even if 99% fail or get shot down, 65 cities are still turned to ash.

[–] [email protected] 12 points 3 months ago

MAD theory and both sides realize that nuke silos are targets for nuke weapons so they had "extras" because everyone knows some won't leave the tube.

[–] [email protected] 9 points 3 months ago

Imagine your opponent gets the jump on you in some massive way. Your land based nukes have to launch from somewhere and the enemy is pointing to every one they have sussed out.

You want to still get a meaningful # in the air if the worst happens

[–] [email protected] 8 points 3 months ago

The existence of this post (and its title in particular) might give you a clue..

[–] [email protected] 6 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) (2 children)

I'm guessing you've never heard of mutually assured destruction

Also, we tested quite a few of them

https://youtu.be/LLCF7vPanrY?si=_MiOV_9xD3x4Sa1H

[–] [email protected] 6 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) (1 children)

This video is so disturbing, every time. Every detonation is an implied threat, a political message, a promise of violence, a show of power. Every detonation is an environmental catastrophe, a long-term cost that we're still paying, both in the collection and refining of the nuclear material and in the detonation. Every detonation is an economic burden, human time and effort spent making a tool that only makes destruction. The US effectively bankrupted the USSR with this competition.

The systemic cost of the whole thing is just mind-boggling. There's really only one silver lining that I see. Humanity had access to a terrifying new weapon, the power to wipe itself out really. And we didn't do it. At the time of highest ignorance, when very few people in the entire world really understood how bad it could be, and when political tensions were high, we did a lot of posturing but we didn't actually do the worst we could have.

It could have been so much worse, and we (collectively) chose not to make it that way. I do find some comfort in that.

[–] bamfic 1 points 3 months ago

A personal crackpot theory that is almost certainly wrong, is that aliens heard the emissions from these blasts and came to investigate wtf was going on. Physically impossible but still comes to mind everytime I see this.

[–] chiliedogg 1 points 2 months ago

Because it's a hell of a deterrent. If we strategically destroy 99% of the arsenal they're still capable of effectively wiping out any adversary.

There's a reason we haven't been in a shooting war with Russia.

[–] AndrewZabar 2 points 3 months ago

Even Doctor Manhattan can’t be all places at once.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 3 months ago (1 children)

More likely several hundred, not 65.
Each nuke carries multiple warheads that split up in space and fly to individual targets.

[–] spittingimage 2 points 2 months ago

Aren't the multiple warheads for the same target, though?

[–] [email protected] 36 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) (1 children)

You don't have to take Russia's word on it. USA and Russia inspected each other's nuclear arsenal as part of the New START treaty until the beginning of covid.

[–] [email protected] 8 points 3 months ago

Thanks for the tidbit

[–] [email protected] 11 points 3 months ago

They have considerable overkill, to the point where only a fraction has to hit their target.

[–] [email protected] 11 points 3 months ago

The imperialist fascist scum would be launching the nukes from the safety of their elaborate, well-stocked, and expensive bomb shelters. I don’t disagree with your opinion of those people, but it’s vital to remember that the biggest victims would be the millions of civilians who have already suffered under their rule.

[–] [email protected] 9 points 3 months ago

Even failures could be bad, for nearby areas or the world. Just a missile falling and then burning is going to release stuff into the air and water. A far cry from a working launch, but still a mess and that's just one missile. What is the probability that they all fail to even launch or just do something and crash inert? Not big, I would guess. Even a badly maintained nuclear arsenal has its own deterrence.

[–] Jiggle_Physics 7 points 3 months ago

The IAEA and the START treaty mean we have inspectors that can monitor the actual capabilities of Russia's nuclear arsenal. According to these inspectors Russia has, at least, 2000 completely operational nukes.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago)

No one is willing to bet the existence of human civilization on that.
Even 2-3 working nukes (out of thousands) would destroy dozens of cities (they each carry multiple warheads that split up in space).
And it would still trigger a retaliatory strike that could cause a nuclear winter.