this post was submitted on 13 Feb 2024
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China’s baby bust is happening faster than many expected, raising fears of a demographic collapse. And coping with the fallout may now be complicated by miscalculations made more than 40 years ago.

The rapid shift under way today wasn’t projected by the architects of China’s one-child policy—one of the biggest social experiments in history, instituted in 1980. At the time, governments around the world feared overpopulation would hold back economic growth. A Moscow-trained missile scientist led the push for China’s policy, based on tables of calculations that applied mathematical models used to calculate rocket trajectories to population growth.

Four decades later, China is aging much earlier in its development than other major economies did. The shift to fewer births and more elderly citizens threatens to hold back economic growth. In a generation that grew up without siblings, young women are increasingly reluctant to have children—and there are fewer of them every year. Beijing is at a loss to change the mindset brought about by the policy.

Births in China fell by more than 500,000 last year, according to recent government data, accelerating a population drop that started in 2022. Officials cited a quickly shrinking number of women of childbearing age—more than three million fewer than a year earlier—and acknowledged “changes in people’s thinking about births, postponement of marriage and childbirth.”

Some researchers argue the government underestimates the problem, and the population began to shrink even earlier.

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[–] Delta_V 57 points 4 months ago (6 children)

Fewer births is good news - a solution rather than a problem. There needs to be fewer humans if we're to avoid cooking ourselves and sending other species into extinction. We should all be so lucky as China to have this 'problem'.

[–] ArbiterXero 46 points 4 months ago

Sure, but that’s an environmental solution to what they see as an economical problem.

We need to rethink how economies work in a population shrink.

[–] [email protected] 26 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago) (1 children)

Good news everyone! We all DO have this problem... It's just most obvious in China because they industrialized and urbanized more rapidly than anyone else AND had this stupid legal policy.

Industrialization, urbanization and improving healthcare also significantly drops births, to below the replacement rate of 2.1. The whole world is on this path, with China, Japan, South Korea, Germany and Russia leading the way.

[–] AA5B 11 points 4 months ago (1 children)

And before anyone thinks different, the US is on this path too. Our population is still growing because of immigration, but birth rate is well below replacement value and dropping

[–] acceptable_pumpkin 4 points 4 months ago (1 children)

Hence one of the miriad of reasons why immigration is such a good policy for a country. Attract younger skilled workers who directly contribute to the economy.

[–] AA5B 2 points 4 months ago (1 children)

I’m generally optimistic about the future but this is a place where I’m not. Specifically for the US, immigration has always been a strength. From cultural distinctiveness to the bulk of labor at times to innovation and competitiveness, from arts to science e to technology, people have been attracted to the US from all over the world and have made this place much better in so many ways. Why are so many people trying to ruin it? Why is there such fear? Why are you taking something that’s clearly a strength and trying to ruin it for outselves?

[–] [email protected] 2 points 4 months ago

There is an interesting bit in this channel 5 video. People all over the world have this false image of the US as a paradise and prosperity and freedom, but the lived experience of immigrants is quite harsh in recent years.

[–] [email protected] 20 points 4 months ago (5 children)

The problem is the aging population.

[–] Altofaltception 59 points 4 months ago (2 children)

The problem is lack of bodies for the meat grinder that is the world economy.

[–] [email protected] 28 points 4 months ago (1 children)

The problem is the lack of bodies to make rich people richer

[–] Theprogressivist 36 points 4 months ago

The problem is lack of bodies for the meat grinder that is the world economy.

The problem is the lack of bodies to make rich people richer

"They're the same picture"

[–] [email protected] 1 points 4 months ago

It can be a problem for any structure of society. Lots of old people and not enough young people to support them. Or look at Detroit. Infrastructure designed for a city twice the size, and still has to be maintained with a shrunken tax base.

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[–] iopq 8 points 4 months ago (2 children)

Who's going to take care of 4 aging grandparents and 2 aging parents when they all share only one young person between them?

[–] AA5B 6 points 4 months ago (1 children)

In my own family:

  • my grandfather was one of 13
  • my Mom was one of 6
  • I was one of 4
  • the four of us have a total of 3 kids
[–] Everythingispenguins 3 points 4 months ago

Clearly you and your siblings need to up your game /s

[–] MotoAsh 7 points 4 months ago (1 children)

Far too late for that problem. We're already in the middle of the next Great Extinction.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 4 months ago (1 children)

It does seem like it's underway doesn't it..

I disagree that we're anywhere close to the middle though. This is just the prologue.

[–] MotoAsh 1 points 4 months ago

Mamy species in number have already gone extinct. I agree it will get much worse, but it's definitely begun.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 4 months ago (1 children)

Let's hope no one pulls a Thanos

[–] [email protected] 1 points 4 months ago

An extinction even is just a voiceless, faceless, impersonal Thanos, one even Ant-Man couldn't beat...

[–] FlyingSquid 30 points 4 months ago (3 children)

China has a surplus of men. Russia has surplus of women. Seems like there's an easy solution there.

[–] grue 31 points 4 months ago (1 children)

Pretty sure they're both too racist for that.

[–] Windex007 12 points 4 months ago (1 children)
[–] grue 10 points 4 months ago (3 children)

It's not a matter of puberty; it's a matter of immigration. Which of those countries is going to be willing to accept a mass influx of minorities from the other?

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[–] ChicoSuave 9 points 4 months ago

Let them fight!

[–] UnderpantsWeevil 3 points 4 months ago

This but unironically. The entire east end of Russia is a steamy mix of Slavic and Han Chinese ethnicity.

[–] [email protected] 20 points 4 months ago

based on tables of calculations that applied mathematical models used to calculate rocket trajectories to population growth.

TO THE MOOOOOON!!! 🚀🌝💎✊💎✊

[–] MataVatnik 16 points 4 months ago (1 children)

I wonder where China would be right now population wise if it wasn't for the one child policy.

[–] Altofaltception 18 points 4 months ago (1 children)

Look at the population growth rate of India for an example.

[–] [email protected] 9 points 4 months ago (2 children)

Yes and no.

As a nation industrializes and gains access better medicine, the survival rate infants and mothers go up. This leads to a birthrate increase.

That better medicine also includes effective birth control. As birth control becomes accepted, the birth rate naturally falls off.

The next thing that causes a birthrate fall off is the mood of the potential parents. If they think their children will have as good a life or better then they had, then those people will have children. If they think their children will have a worse life, they will not.

India is still in the process of industrialization. Birth control is not widely accepted, and parental optimism is high.

In China birth control is more accepted, and currently parental optimism is low.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 4 months ago

It seems it's also very correlated with education (of women)

Still your points stand, just wanted to add that as well

[–] Altofaltception 3 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago)

China enacted the one child policy (which this article talks about) in an era where they were undergoing rapid industrialization (as you mentioned, India is going through it now). Today's parental optimism (or lack thereof) is separate from that.

[–] [email protected] 11 points 4 months ago (2 children)

The solution is clear. Invade other countries and take their women.

[–] VubDapple 12 points 4 months ago

Conan, what is good in life?

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[–] Everythingispenguins 5 points 4 months ago

I genuinely wonder how differently this would have played out if China had managed to keep an equal m/f ratio.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 4 months ago

Huh. I didn't have soylent green on my 2024 bingo card.

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