this post was submitted on 23 Jul 2024
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[–] [email protected] 261 points 3 months ago (21 children)

The only certain thing is nobody knows who will be elected until after the polls close and counting is certified.

VOTE. Everyone vote as if yours is the only one that matters, because it may be.

[–] kmartburrito 95 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago)

100% agree. Polls also don't really account for voter suppression tactics, or gerrymandering and other GOP fuckery, so absolutely vote because our democracy is literally at stake here.

Our future generations will be impacted by the outcome of this specific election.

[–] proudblond 15 points 3 months ago (1 children)

I tend to wonder how these polls are conducted and who is answering them? Does anyone get polls via email or text? Are they still just calling people? I’m in my 40s and basically no one I know my age or younger answers numbers they don’t know anymore, and texts are ignored or flat out blocked because if you respond, they barrage you later, or at least that’s what we all assume.

So I’m not convinced polls have any bearing on what will happen anymore. VOTE!

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[–] [email protected] 120 points 3 months ago (5 children)

That is an uncomfortably close margin but it's good to see she's leading now at least.

[–] AbidanYre 79 points 3 months ago (3 children)

It's only been like one day.

[–] [email protected] 53 points 3 months ago

Yeah, and it's great to see Trump's standing reversed in that one day!

[–] UnderpantsWeevil 39 points 3 months ago

Better 2-pts up with Harris than 3-pts down with Biden. I like the direction those polls are swinging, even if I wouldn't put money on an outcome.

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[–] cabron_offsets 32 points 3 months ago (1 children)
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[–] paddirn 25 points 3 months ago (1 children)

Other polls I had seen just yesterday (likely collected before Biden dropping out was a reality) still had Trump with a 1% or more lead over Harris, so they're really all over the place and I wouldn't trust them for much, even up to and including election day. I'm not breathing a sigh of relief until victory is declared, and even then, I wouldn't be so sure.

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[–] Diplomjodler3 13 points 3 months ago

This is a swing and she's only beginning to build momentum. Let's hope things keep moving in the right direction.

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[–] [email protected] 85 points 3 months ago (9 children)

Polls are garbage. Vote like they don’t exist.

[–] UnderpantsWeevil 24 points 3 months ago (1 children)

Polls are garbage.

The mainstream professional polls have been reliable for some time. They typically get within 2-3pt margin of error when taken a few days before the election, and they serve as a useful bellweather to track public sentiment. In this case, it appears jettisoning Biden is bringing voters back to the Dem fold. That's what Dems were banking on, and I'd consider it a good thing given how much I don't want Trump to be President.

Vote like they don’t exist.

People who obsessively follow polling are the ones most likely to vote.

[–] Xanis 11 points 3 months ago

Stepping aside may honestly be the single greatest show of leadership Biden has done in his lifetime. If the polls are swinging, it's as much due to him making such a historical and respectable move as it is people surprised and refreshed by Kamala Harris.

[–] [email protected] 17 points 3 months ago

Vote like idiot rule the world, and try to make their day worse.

[–] [email protected] 15 points 3 months ago (1 children)

Polls were historically accurate in 2022 and generally do a good job of measuring the temperature. Still, vote like they don't exist.

[–] [email protected] 10 points 3 months ago

Exactly. If polls didn't matter, Biden would still be running for president. With that being said: vote.

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[–] [email protected] 56 points 3 months ago (1 children)

Harris, whose campaign says she has secured the Democratic nomination, led Trump 44% to 42% in the national poll, a difference within the 3-percentage-point margin of error.

National polls go beyond meaninglessness and into actual harm. The national popular vote does not elect the president, as we all should know too well. My vote in Illinois is worth far less than someone's vote in Wyoming. Your vote in California is worth far less than someone's vote in Alaska.

Unless a national poll weights responses based on state, and based on the electoral college results from states, it is completely misleading.

[–] Moops 29 points 3 months ago (7 children)

And my vote in Oklahoma.....oh fuck it who are we kidding lol. Meaningless. I still do it though.

[–] [email protected] 21 points 3 months ago (4 children)

In a similar situation. Theres a zero percent chance trump doesn't win my state by at least 10 points. Still gonna vote though.

[–] samus12345 18 points 3 months ago (2 children)

He'll see the popular vote count and it will annoy him. He was mad about it even when he won!

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[–] SirDerpy 9 points 3 months ago

Both of you should be asking how your vote could be made meaningful outside the scope of your current evaluation.

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[–] [email protected] 18 points 3 months ago (1 children)

Just saw Oklahoma has one of the lowest voter turn outs in the nation. With Tulsa and Oklahoma city it's more progressive than most people realize. We've just got to get out and vote and convince those around us to do the same. I know we have the numbers to win local elections.

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[–] UnderpantsWeevil 10 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago)

Lots of downticket races can be swung by a popular presidential nominee.

That said, Oklahoma's awash in O&G money and its state bureaucrats are notoriously corrupt. At some point, the sheer volume of gerrymandering, vote caging, and criminal disenfranchisement needs to be addressed. Simply shouting at people to "GO VOTE!" when they're getting handed broken machines and defective butterfly ballots and threatening robocalls isn't helping anyone, least of all the candidates they're hoping will win.

[–] cabron_offsets 9 points 3 months ago

Nah, not meaningless. Any swing away from the degenerates will dispirit them.

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[–] razorwiregoatlick 50 points 3 months ago (2 children)

I know the top comments in these subs is always something along the lines of “fuck the polls! Go vote!” I agree but damn it is nice to get some positive news now and then!

[–] FlyingSquid 22 points 3 months ago (1 children)

Right? Enjoy something positive for a few seconds!

[–] [email protected] 15 points 3 months ago

I agree, and also, go vote!

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[–] jordanlund 43 points 3 months ago (10 children)

As with all the discussions on national polls, it's necessary to point out that national polls have no meaning. We don't have national elections.

Blue states are gonna blue state and red states are gonna red state, so the President will be decided by a handfull of states that don't reliably vote one way or another, and frankly, we just don't have enough good data on a Harris nomination to say one way or another.

Looking at the notable states I've looked at before, this data is from before Biden dropped out.

Arizona - Trump +6 vs Harris
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/

Nevada - Trump +10 vs Harris
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/

New Mexico - No data for Harris.

Georgia - Trump +5 vs Harris
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/

North Carolina - Trump +4 vs Harris
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/

Pennsylvania - Trump +4 vs Harris
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/

Michigan - Trump +5 vs Harris
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/

Wisconsin - Tied.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/

Minnesota - No data for Harris.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/minnesota/

Harris also puts Virginia in play now as well, in what was assumed to be a blue state, now Trump +4.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/virginia/

So this is her starting point. She has 105 days to turn this around. The Democratic convention in August is key.

As of right now though? Here's the map:

[–] [email protected] 32 points 3 months ago (1 children)

Those polls don't account for anything that happened after the switch, like the impact of the record number of donations and news blitz. Need to wait for the next round before we really have any idea, and a few more in a few weeks to see where it levels off

[–] jordanlund 18 points 3 months ago (2 children)

Yup, like I say, this is the bottom.

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[–] [email protected] 35 points 3 months ago (7 children)

i'm going to need so much popcorn to watch GOP squirming and flailing desperate to find something to attack LOL

~~she's too OLD!!!~~

~~hunter's laptop!!!~~

~~buttery males!!!~~

LOL

eat shit, republicans

[–] samus12345 32 points 3 months ago (1 children)
[–] [email protected] 18 points 3 months ago (1 children)

"she hates dogs!!!"

LOL j/k. that's trump. trump hates dogs

[–] samus12345 16 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) (1 children)

Oh yeah, there's also "She never had kids!"

[–] [email protected] 14 points 3 months ago (1 children)

There will be quite a few Muslim allegations as well, for reasons. Which is funny, considering she has history with nearly everything besides Islam.

[–] samus12345 9 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) (2 children)

Oh yeah, probably. Has the GOP ever really sorted out their racist talking points about Indians (from India, not Native Americans)?

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[–] [email protected] 9 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) (3 children)

From a Politico article, we can see how the Russians are starting to talk about Harris. The Republicans aren't usually far behind...

“Kamala with the nuclear button is worse than a monkey with a grenade,” Andrei Sidorov, the dean of the global politics department at Moscow State University (a once highly respected institution) said Sunday evening on state television’s prime weekly talk show.

Edit: and then there's this: Unhinged Republican candidate calls Kamala Harris a “little wh*re” as GOP descends into misogyny

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[–] blazera 27 points 3 months ago

Let it be a runaway snowball of a lead

[–] [email protected] 16 points 3 months ago

This is good. Early, sure, but its numbers going in the right direction.

[–] [email protected] 15 points 3 months ago (4 children)

Popularity or percentage of electoral college votes?

Only one of the two matter.

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[–] barsquid 15 points 3 months ago (1 children)

That's good news but still too close. We all need to continue informing the public that Donald is a dementia-ridden geriatric physically and mentally unfit for the office.

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[–] homesweethomeMrL 10 points 3 months ago

1.) POLLS ARE GARBAGE.

2.) Corporate news cannot run a horse race without polls

3.) See #1

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