I think Trump loves the idea of going to jail to make a political point but I also think Trump is too stupid to realize what being in a jail cell actually entails.
this post was submitted on 07 May 2024
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I think he will not go to jail. And I do be not mean it like „buh, American system bad, they will never do it“, i mean it as in: they will put him on house arrest. Normal cloth. Normal food. Security at the door. If he continues to break the gag order and we reach contempt No. 20 then maybe (maybe!) we see him in an actual jail. Not before.
I think he will not go to jail. And I do be not mean it like „buh, American system bad, they will never do it“, i mean it as in: they will put him on house arrest. Normal cloth. Normal food. Security at the door.
I'll go "buh, American system bad." My prediction - what you have described is the worst he will ever see, if convicted of everything he should be. That man will die of old age, wearing his own clothes, in his own house, living a 1% lifestyle, having never seen the inside of a cell, still claiming he won in 2020. Mark my words.
I'd love to be wrong, but I know I'm not.
I agree completely.
To add, I'm angry that facing the actual consequences is likely to make him more popular with his base.
I agree completely.
✊
I’m angry that facing the actual consequences is likely to make him more popular with his base.
This does anger me. But what angers me more is the feeling that a significant factor in this kid gloves treatment is fear of how his supporters will react. It's literally handing power to fascist regressives.
The issue with a house arrest order would be that it fully denies Trump the ability to campaign for president, which (in his mind and his brainwashed constituency) is a political act and one that he has already prepared his goon squad to riot over. Buckle up buttercups, this should be fun.
one that he has already prepared his goon squad to riot over
That concern for the safety of the officials who would have to enforce an incarceration order is one of the things the judge specifically referenced in his statement.
They are not going to go crazy or anything. Here's why Trump is popular among the cud-chewers:
- He gets away with it
That's it. That's why long winded articles in The New Yorker and Vanity Fair about his many misdeeds don't sway his supporters. He does bad things and gets away with it.
As soon as he lost the election, he lost a lot of his power. J6 only happened because he was still in office at the time. He could still "get away with it", with help. Just putting him on trial takes away more of his influence, because he's not getting away with anything anymore.
If he is thrown in jail for contempt (or house arrest) I predict his supporters will be angry but not "go nuts" and attack anything. Fucking vote. This guy is clearly touchable.
Even that would drive him insane because there is no way they would let him post on his stupid Twitter clone while under house arrest and he wouldn't be able to campaign.
He would still be able to do those things from a jail cell. Violating hig gag order under house arrest would just mean more house arrest.
Surely the judge has the power to and would make it conditional on that.
Hahahahaha
No. It should be apparent from every other time that hlnothing has happened to shut him up that things will not change and no judge will ever actually shut him.
It sucks, but he will continue to be allowed to spout his bullshit even if the judge does try because SCOTUS will insist Trump gets to say whatever he wants.
What do you mean I can't bring my golden toilet???
He'd go nuts without his phone. This would traumatize him.
In my experience, if you threaten someone with a consequence, you have to follow through. If you only keep threatening, the point of the other consequence is moot.
The best way to do it is to 1st issue a warning about what you are doing. 2nd, upon failing to follow the rules, you do what you are doing.
If you don't do it after the 1st warning, you are feckless. You can skip the 1st step if threatened by the person beforehand.
On a different note. I think Don Von Shitzhimself is really looking for an excuse to not atten Barron's HD graduation, and jail would be the perfect pitty party for him to share with his supporters
I fully expect Merchan to follow through with this threat if it happens again. As far I'm aware, it sounds like the subject of this 2nd contempt hearing actually happened before the 1st contempt hearing, but came to light afterward, so it wasn't a "I'll let you off light this time" scenario. Future violations will undoubtedly lead to jail time...I think the media shit storm will be intolerable
In my experience, if you threaten someone with a consequence, you have to follow through.
Parenting 101.
Merchan then said, quote, "it appears as if the thousand-dollar fines are not serving as a deterrent" and added, "the last thing I want to do is put you in jail. You are the former president of the United States and possibly the future president of the United States."
I mean, we already knew there was a two-tiered justice system in the United States. But I guess it's nice to finally have a judge confirm it.
I don't think that's entirely fair to the judge. There is no precedent for imprisoning a former president or someone who is currently running for president . There are real legal and logistical problems with doing so. Meanwhile $1k is literally the maximum amount the judge can legally fine him for each infraction. Judges get a lot of latitude in deciding how to deal with people who are violating a court order, but in this case he risks setting off a political shitstorm and I do not envy him.
There are no legal or logistical issues. Contempt of court is contempt of court. But you’re right that jailing Trump would make him a political martyr to his supporters and that would become a massive shitstorm.
By logistical issues, I assume they mean the logistics of having secret service in the jail along with the president
So put him in Gen Pop. Some white supremacist gang with take him in right away.
They can stand in a jail outside of a iso cell just as well as prison staff can.
Ever hear of Eugene V. Debs?
Debs was already in prison when he decided to run, and he also had basically no chance of winning, so that's not exactly the same.
Had run already run for office 4 times prior, once earning 6% of vote so it is disingenuous to say he decided to run when already in prison. Yes he had no real chance of winning, but as a labor leader of international national prominence, he was a serious candidate for the office. Yes not exactly the same but there is precedence.
Separate what is "yeah the rich get away with everything" from "and this dude was once president" and you can see that this is still a unique situation that has less to do with his wealth.
Merchan is actually afraid to jail him.
Considering what MAGA folks have shown themselves to be capable of that is fair.
To quote JC Denton "When due process fails us, we really do live in a world of terror"
"Afraid" and "cautious" are two entirely different things.
Putting Trump behind bars is going to be an historical act; the judge who does it had better be sure that he's completely justified.
Putting Trump behind bars is going to be an historical act
It shouldn't be, and yet, it is
Narrator: he will
At this point it would be better politically for Sleepy vonShitzinpants to be in prison for the duration of the trial as opposed to farting himself awake in court.
There's 0 downside form him, really. Either the judge doesn't follow through, and Trump gets to mock him, or he does follow through, and Trump continues to paint himself as a martyr.
Narrator: there was no risk…
The human brain is capable of wonderful things, and also shit like this:
former adult film star
former adult Benjamin Button
How much will the level of protective custody he’d require cost the taxpayers? If he ends up in jail, all of us are footing the bill.
He has a secret service detail so we're already footing the bill. Don't think a lot would change except he'd be de facto solitary confinement.
Solitary confinement is the norm for prisoners in 'protective custody.' Ex-cops and child molesters are kept in an isolated area. 23 hours a day of lockdown with one hour of yard time is the norm.
You watch too much tv. That is not normal. Prisons in each state are very different. Many prisons are broken into sections where predator/victim status are not crossed. If an ex cop will be a victim, they will not be placed in a space where a predator will attack them. When prisons get overflowing, it causes changes to that dynamic shift that can cause more isolation. In general, isolation is not a standard for ex-cops and child molesters.
It would be cheaper than dealing with the bullshit he creates when he's out.
I don't think Trump is bright enough to be doing this intentionally, but it's a win-win for him, politically. If he continues to ignore the order he pays next to nothing (for him) or he attains political martyrdom in the eyes of his cult.
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