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This is the expected path the probability is going to take. Scott Manley made a great video on that.
Basically the area in which the asteroid is going to be includes the earth. When you shrink this area earth is going to take up more space, unless it left the cone. I.e. measurements increase the likelihood until they don't.
Scott Manley... Now that's a name I haven't heard in a long time
Fly safe!
As if fascists and climate change wheren't enough. Here, have an asteroid!
What if it lands an the fascists and dust in the atmosphere cancels climate change for a couple of decades. Could that work?
I don't subscribe to your death cult.
I just hope itβs bigger then they think.
3.1% odds are nothing to sneeze at. Ever played D&D?
XCom vets know what's about to happen
It'll climb to 95% and then phase through the earth to somehow miss entirely?
Either that or devastating critical strike. No in between
roll for save vs. asteroid on a D30...
Balls.
Good.
Up those numbers.
We're awful.
is this the aliens going "welp they elected Trump again time to press the reset button"
Hit Washington DC please.
Mar-a-Lago would be a great choice.
It will be in 2032, so near the end of Trump's third term.
first hit moscow and take an insane bounce and hit washington DC please. that's all I'm asking.
Bruh the DC metro area is statistically one of the most anti Trump places in the US. Let's root for it to hit Maralago instead.
This has been a good test of our planetary defense procedures, and will be an even better test on the off chance the probability resolves to 100%. I'm rooting for an impact trajectory, since we'd either get to see humanity's first real asteroid deflection or witness the largest asteroid impact in over a century. (Hopefully in the ocean or a sparsely populated area!)
Unfortunately, I half expect that if we get a 100% chance, governments are going to see where it's going to land (sea/Africa) and decide it's not worth the spend/let's see what happens if we let it hit.
Really hope I'm wrong, but I don't have a lot of faith in humanity anymore.
Why would we mitigate the asteroid if its cheaper to clean up after a non-consequential impact?
To test our ability to stop it. If one was going to hit a major city, that's not the best situation to be trying something out for the first time.
If the cost of a recall for a defective car is higher than the cost to settle wrongful death lawsuits, they don't do a recall.
A recall costs money for a corporation to perform. A project like astroid deflection is an opportunity to funnel more government spending into the pockets of defense and space contractors. These are not the same.
And hopefully it can be highly rich in rare minerals, so that when the ashes of WW3 finally settle down, at least the future generations of humans or not-human sapient entities will at least get something good out of the whole ridiculous mess we're currently in lol
Bring it
A direct hit would be about the size of a fission nuclear bomb. Devastating for a city, but no regional or country-wide impacts, let alone globally
Not even a little global cooling?
As a treat?
If anything, it might get a tiny bit warmer
How many people need to die before someone hits the Earth with a rock ?
From the article
In a new update, the space agency has increased the chances of asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with Earth, with the probability of impact rising to 3.1 per cent or one-in-32 odds of impact β the highest probability of a collision yet.
IE - 3%.
3% events happen all of the time!
The article stresses that this probability has been going up over the past year or so, which is likely neither here nor there, but I can totally understand how itβs alarming in a post-COVID world.
Donβt look up
Don't threaten me with a good time
