As we know from Gore and Clinton, national numbers mean jack shit. Vote!
this post was submitted on 25 Aug 2024
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politics
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Vote and volunteer to give rides to those that wouldn't be able to vote without it. (if you can)
Exactly. Don't get complacent! Every vote is needed and matters.
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Don’t believe the naysayers. No matter which state you are in, your vote is important. Extreme Conservatives have been taking over school boards and imposing their agenda on kids.
Offices like Sheriff, Coroner, Secretary of State, Lt Governor, State Representatives, City and County Councils etc. are all important.
Every Vote Counts!!!!!
Thank you for making me laugh today.
And every cunt votes, so do it too!
Definitely agree with this. As someone from Oregon where my vote doesn't really matter on the national elections I make sure to vote still to influence local elections. Only problem with those is that finding info on the candidates can be hard or sometimes there is only one candidate for a position.
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As usual, national polls mean nothing since we don't have national elections.
But let's see where it stands in the states that count, all of these numbers are from before the DNC and Kennedy dropping out, so we'll need a re-run in a week or two. I'm also adding some states people have been talking about.
Arizona: Toss up. Tie, Trump +1 +2
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/
Nevada: Harris +6, +8, +10
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/
New Mexico: Harris +8, +9
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/new-mexico/
Texas: Trump +5, +6
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/texas/
Georgia: Trump +1, +4
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/
Florida: Trump +5, +8
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/florida/
North Carolina: Toss up. Tie, Harris +1
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/
Virginia: Harris +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/virginia/
Pennsylvania: Toss up. Harris +1, +2, Trump +1
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/
Michigan: Harris +6, +7, +8
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/
Wisconsin: Harris +6, +7, +8
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/
Minnesota: Harris +5, +7, +10
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/minnesota/
Huge shifts in Nevada, New Mexico, Michigan and Wisconsin which, under Biden, were a loss to Trump and shortly before the official shift were still barely Trump.
Trump is up in Texas, but only +5 or +6 which is consistent with the +6 win in 2020 and +9 in 2016.
Florida and Georgia are not the toss up states people are making them out to be.
The Muslim Pro-Gaza vote has had 0 impact in Michigan. Still Harris' race to lose there.
Overall, this is the best showing for the Democrats so far this year, let's plot it on the map:
Of the three toss up states, a win in either PA or NC puts Harris over the top. Arizona does not. She's 2 short if she gets AZ but not PA or NC.
Trump needs BOTH PA and NC to hit exactly 270. PA + AZ he's at 265. NC + AZ he's at 262.
This is really the first time in months that the electoral math has been going away from Trump.
Good write up. National polls don't mean shit and this is far from a done deal as you've shown.
I'll be sitting up all night on November 5th with spreadsheets. :)
🤮 I'm going to the mountains far from any signal save short wave radio.
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Thanks a lot for the detailed breakdown.
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Polls. Don't. Matter. Fucking. Vote.
Polls are a useful tool for gauging popular opinion at a given moment, and can help politicians make rational judgements during a campaign.
Biden wouldn't have dropped out if people ignored polling.
Everyone here is right about this still being neck and neck.
That said, let’s also take 2 seconds to acknowledge that Harris has kind of been killing it over the last 3-4 weeks. She took over that campaign apparatus and moved with urgency, precision, and polish. Moreover, she’s not taking her opponent’s bate.
Harris has been absolutely stellar, I thought she was OK before, but she has clearly exceeded my expectations.
PS: I think that last word should probably be "bait" not "bate".
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Remember to still vote. Even if it's accurate, the GoP is trying to prep as many cheats as possible so they can kick it to the supreme court. You need overwhelming numbers - Enough that even just 3 of the Republican Supreme Court members say the results are valid out of fear of retaliation
The fake news polling is rigged - Vote!
Yep, they are trying to lull us.
doesn’t matter. Some dipshit from Pennsylvania is more important than 100 Californians.
Down ballot candidates still matter. There are several tossup districts in CA for congressional seats. Vote like hell!!!!!
More than 40 million Californians, you mean. Our vote effectively means nothing nationally.
Pennsylvania is a large state, a vote there is barely worth more than a vote in California.
https://medium.com/practical-coding/whats-my-vote-worth-3ca2585b5d51
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Convention bounce and it hasn't finished yet. A convention bounce can disappear with time..
Next week's polling will be interesting, with the bounce but also The Silence of the Worm. Then we have debates over the next few weeks, and polls should really solidify into something worthy of attention.
The DNC went exceptionally well, continuing momentum, massively energetic and positive, and seems to have impressed the necessary people (at least compared with the unwatchable RNC). I would expect a noticeable bounce until some big new event, which T**** will be desperate for...
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But is delicuous with basil!
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Smiling Trump is so weird lmao.
It's a whole new thing for him.
I think those pictures of him with his eyes sqinting and his mouth stretched out like a frog were supposed to be a smile, but I always registered it as "self-satisfaction" rather than "joyfullness" which I'm convinced he's wholly incapable of.
3% of Democrats support Trump?
WTF? Who? How?
🧠🪱
TIL how to shorten RFK down to two emojis.
Usually people that are either lying about being Democrats, or people very much stuck on a single issue and have decided that "The establishment" is wrong (yet, still, identifying as a Democrat).
I would not feel comfortable we were safe from the disaster of a second Trump term even if Harris was up by 70 points!
the polls lie; their methodology is not good enough to actually get the temp of thjngs. Drag everyone you know to the polls.
Even if the polls were accurate something as simple as rain on election day can throw them off.
Go fucking vote
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