this post was submitted on 26 Oct 2023
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So, like all the others, while China will produce cheap eCars. Look, I don't want to predict the future, but if I only have 20-30k for a new car, I simply physically can't buy a 60k SUV. You can't jump into a saturated market of other car companies, who almost all seam to want only expensive eCars and expect a good outcome. There's only so much money in the pockets of people and only so much people are willing to pay for a used eCar, if it needs expensive battery replacement soon. Not going to happen. Build cheaper cars or fail.
Not to mention not everyone has a garage or nearby charging spot to charge an ev.
Perhaps dealing with infrastructure first would be interesting...
Then again, I don't have a gas station in my backyard either...
Shopping centers/grocery stores need more charging stations, that's the most realistic place to go to charge when you don't have the capacity to do it at home.
Workplaces too.
I cannot even charge my phone at work under Italian law (I'm a public employee and it would count as malversation).
Wow that's a bit of a stretch 😂
Man I haven't learned a new word in a long time, and "malversation" is a great one.
The issue is charging takes a while, while refuelling is pretty much instantaneous
90% of people can charge their car enough in between Shopping trips
DC fast charging is fairly fast. My car goes from 10-80 in less than 20 minutes in summer, and probably 35 minutes in winter. My wife spends more time than that in grocery stores weekly.
Good point. It's a sort of chicken egg problem. Lack of ev and no investment for infrastructure, resulting in even less ev.
Here in Germany, in my local town, they build hydrogen fuel stations instead of charging stations. Very strange.
Planning on a 1-to-1 swap between traditional cars and EVs is the crassest mistake. It would take a paradigm shift that emphasizes remote work, carpooling and carsharing in order to make private transportation really sustainable.
EVs are here to save the car manufacturers, not the planet. Literally just a bandaid solution to kick the can of actually implementing the harder solutions that require some societal change down the road a few more years
You can't have infrastructure without the cars, and you can't have the cars without the infrastructure. The solution to this catch-22 is to force the infrastructure to catch up.
Or maybe instead of blocking everything on the theory a complete charging solution will magically appear despite no demand, we can go ahead with the 59% of the population living in a house, and can decide to install a charger. Maybe we can go ahead with charger networks we already have, already allowing most road trips and getting better continuously. And we can use all that demand, all that money to keep building out a better and better charging solution.
FYI - buddy of mine has an EV at a townhouse with no opportunity to charge, and just goes to a supercharger once a week to top off. It may be inconvenient, but it’s not onerous
I hope to see more cheap cars by 2025 when VW starts doing their id1 and id2. The rest of the manufacturers need to follow suit or lose out of the massive market for mini and micros.
Personally I did get a used EV. It had driven less than 200km in total, but I got it at about 70% of the normal price. The battery is fine. The used market isn't just for worn out cars. People sell almost new cars for a variety of reasons, so it's worth looking at the used market already. The batteries in modern cars are generally better than their reputation. I wouldn't want to get a 7-10 year old EV, but anything newer is just fine.
Bwahahaha that's not used. That's new. Talk to us again when you pick up a car with 50 000 on it.
I mean, that's my point. The used market isn't all beater cars. There are almost new EVs available on the used market. 3 years ago they didn't exist at all. The used market back then only had EVs with poor batteries, but these days you can find new cars in the used market with new batteries, but still at a massive price discount only for being used slightly.
Many people still have the common idea that used EVs are risky, so the prices drop a lot from very little use. Also because the technology in new cars evolves very quickly, so you can get last years models considerably cheaper.
I picked up a used EV with about 20,000 miles on it and it still felt like new.
Electric cars don't normally need a battery replacement during the car's lifetime. If the battery needs to be replaced, the car has usually already been running longer than most ICE cars ever would. The used market for EVs used to be pretty dire, with little supply and awful pricing. But it's slowly getting better. But of course the fact remains, that there is currently a lot of demand for cheap EVs and little supply. The Chinese are gearing up to eat up that part of the market.
What?
Show me a battery that goes 200k - 300k.
Just because the average consumer is an idiot and replaces cars long before then doesn't mean the vehicles can't go that far.
Every car my family has owned for the last 30 years has gone at least 200k, some 300k+. My current 2005 vehicle is at 270k, and I expect many more years from it, barring an accident. Our newest vehicle is from 2016, and is approaching 100k. An electric vehicle would be needing a battery soon, while all mine needs is an oil change, and perhaps a timing belt for $50 (to be fair, I'll probably spend $250 and replace the water pump, idlers, and primary belt while I'm there. Last time was 100k miles ago).
I can keep you updated on my own EV ownership if you'd like. I bought a '22 Chevy Bolt brand new for $27k a hair over 12 months ago and so far it's got 51,000 miles on the odometer and the battery has lost only 10 miles of range compared to the 240 it came with, which is such a small loss it might actually be due to the wind or temps on my test since I do my range tests on the freeway during road trips. Despite driving on average more than 137 miles every single day in this EV during the summer, rain, winter, and multiple snow storms (yay Midwest -_-), the battery seems to be holding up pretty well. My plan is to drive the car for at least 5 years before considering a replacement, at which point I should have between 230-270k on the odometer. The only maintenance items on the car are tires every 50-60k, new coolant in the coolant loops every 150k, brakes every 100k or whenever they wear out (which varies wildly based on how an EV is driven), and wipers + wiper fluid as needed.
My goal here isn't to put you on blast or call you a liar because skepticism is fair. I'm just sharing my own experience so far with a car that runs on EV tech last updated in 2015. I was pretty worried the "abuse" I'd be putting it through with my driving would cause it to have problems or perform worse than it should, but so far it's doing great and the battery isn't any worse for wear than other Bolts who have published their numbers online.
Personally I'm really looking forward to finding out how well the 2022+ Tesla Model 3s do with the new LFP battery because supposedly they'll be a big improvement over the NCM batteries they have been using (which my car also uses) when it comes to longevity and being left alone for really long periods of time (months, years).
The next Chevy bolt will also have LFP batteries, so they should have similar performance. I think the benefits of LFP outweigh the NCM and that they have a higher life expectancy, can charge to a higher rate with less degradation, although they don't like really cold weather.
My M3 with LFP battery had almost no range loss in its first winter last year, although last year was milder than normal in the NE USA
EV batteries are lasting longer than expected.
Also, when accounting for maintenance over, EV's can be cheaper over time even with a battery replacement. They don't need oil, engine coolest, or transmission fluid. There's a whole life support system for ICE cars that EVs just don't have, and what replaces it tends to last indefinitely if there are no manufacturing defects or have an abusive owner. Brake maintenance is also reduced; they need the fluid changed, but regen braking tends to reduce the need to replace pads. Manufactures were already seeing pads and rotors on hybrids last nearly the life of the vehicle.
It all adds up, and while the $10k battery cost years down the line scares people as one big number, it often ends up being less than what you would have spent on maintenance over the same time period.
Finally, the batteries may not be worthless at the end of that time. Putting them in houses for backup power is often still feasible. You're just not getting the same range out of them anymore.
Aside from the Leaf, which does not have any sort of battery temperature management, I wouldn't expect an EV to need a battery so soon.
Teslas can easily make it to 200k miles at while retaining >80% of peak capacity, according to
.
Most of the other brands don't have enough vehicles approaching that milestone that I could find data on.
Yeah, I don't know why you think this, but there are plenty of EV taxis out there with 200k miles on them.
And they don't need oil changes, timing belts, spark plugs, idlers, water pumps or primary belts. And their brakes last easily twice as long thanks to regenerative braking.
So, after about 300k miles, you recycle your battery pack and get a 3rd party one installed for $5k-$10k and go for another 200k miles.
My 2008 Prius has ticked over 200k with the original battery pack. Sure it's only a hybrid instead of a full on EV, but it's going strong.
My longest lived ICE car was my Delta 88. 261k before the second shitty GM transmission gave out. The first one died at 180k and was slippy from 120k.
Why does it have to be new? Whats wrong with a nearly new car that is only a couple of years old? Warranty, at least in Europe covers the major components like body shell and battery for 7 to 10 years now.
Part of reducing the impact of cars to the environment is making them last longer and EVs have the opportunity to be fully refurbished at what would have been the end of their normal lifespan to better than new. Replacing the battery pack for a more modern and denser version, replacing the motor for a more efficient and powerful one, even replace the entertainment unit with a more modern one. Sure, this is expensive but you are basically getting a new car for considerably less than a new car.
While I personally think Musk can eat a bag of dicks, the ability to upcycle early Teslas using Tesla parts is very welcome. It needs to be legally mandated that manufacturers have to offer this and end the cycle of scrapping cars.
What you described is already done with ICE vehicles. Engines and transmissions are rebuilt all the time. Even cars that are totaled are typically given a second life.
Ultimately it's the vehicle's body and frame that determine when it's at the end of it's life. You're not going to put a new battery in a tesla with a rusted out frame.
Arguably the lifespan could be worse for EVs since replacing the batteries is so expensive (more than a typical engine rebuild) that many probably won't be willing to put that much money into an old vehicle.
Rarely happens though in practice with ICE cars, average age of a car being scrapped in the UK is about 13 years, average age on the road is about 8 years. Car lifespan has been increasing in Western Europe as car reliability has improved. In general Cars do not rust as quickly as they used to, obviously there will be individual Friday afternoon shit boxes or even entire ranges as with Merc between the 90s and early 2000s. But in general they are light years better than pre 2000s and especially pre 1980s when they could start rusting their first year.
In practice the cost to repair vs. value of the car tends to dictate its lifespan in Europe, it becomes cheaper to replace the car than fix it. This is the cycle we need to end.
Current it tends to be limited to enthusiasts to upgrade the capabilities of ICE cars such as more powerful or efficient engine, etc. I do not see this market changing with EVs, you can already by performance upgrades for Teslas for example, even if I wouldn't touch these 3rd party performance upgrades with a ten foot pole (outside of things like brakes and suspension).
Retrofitting a much more efficient engine to a modern ICE car is difficult, it requires all sorts of other upgrades to enable it and manufacturers have been busy trying to lock people out, see BMW and their ECU encryption. Retrofitting a larger battery, particularly to earlier cars is reasonably trivial in comparison and the old battery still has value, whereas a knackered gearbox/engine/ecu combo is worth considerably less for the average car.
This should be similar to a right to repair law for EVs that also enables them to take advantage of the latest tech.
I'm the US the average age in the road is over 12 years and the average retirement age is about 20 years now. We don't have any required extended warranty rules but do require that OEMs produce parts for at least 10 years. Most parts for most vehicles are available from the aftermarket vendors though.
We have similar parts availability but when a job costs £1500 and the replacement car is £1500 with newer tyres and brake discs most just opt for scrapping as it doesn't make sense to keep the average car.
If you savvy you break the old car yourself and sell off the working parts for more than the value of the whole car.
Final owners just run the car till it breaks or fails it's MoT and is no longer road worthy then scrap it for a new one. Cars just depreciate faster than they become unrepairable for large amounts of money (see the costs for a proper restore or retromod).
COVID fucked with depreciation for a while with 7sed being more expensive than new for white goods cars but that's over now and depreciation is huge again.
In my experience, at least in the US, most people aren't getting rid of their car because a new car is cheaper, they do it because the cost to repair the old car exceeds the current car's value. This is actually a very poor justification for buying a new car but it happens all the time. People get scared when they get a high repair bill and jump into a multi year auto loan costing 250+/month.
Cars are expensive here though so you're unlikely to buy new for much less than 20k and the reality is most consumers aren't buying base model cheap compact cars.
Of course you may be able to buy used cheaper but people who are afraid of repair bills aren't usually rushing out to replace one old car with another.
Don't manufacturers charge something close to the price of a new car to exchange the battery?
Like they based the entire business model around the smartphone model of making them "disposable" so you keep buying new ones
Nope, the typical £10k to £12k on cars costing £30k, something like a Zoe for example, a Tesla Model S is around £20k to £30k depending on size with the Tesla being £60k to £100k to buy new.
The old battery is still worth a significant chunk of change as well, they certainly do not need to go in the bin. We haven't even started refurbishing old batteries yet, just repurposing them.
Couple that with more modern batteries often being bigger capacity for same sized packaging. Model S 60kwh with 70% usable is approx. 42kwh usable. Upgrade that to 85kwh and you've doubled your usable battery, so better than new.
Oh, and you'll often get another 7 to 10 year guarantee on the battery as well.
So nothing like a phone battery, well maybe one from Apple replaced by apple with an actual enforable warranty
20-30K?! Holy crap. I've never spent more than 10K on a car. But then I've never bought a new car...
You guys drive? 💀 My rollerblades were only $200 and the ball bearings are in great shape.
you'll spent 10k minumum on replacing a battery on a used tesla
I've pretty much resigned myself to the fact the only electric car I'll ever own will be a 10 year old Nissan Leaf.