cross-posted from: https://slrpnk.net/post/8471507
this post was submitted on 10 Apr 2024
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A Boring Dystopia
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Cynicism aside, there are genuine engineering and logistical problems with relying too heavily on solar power. Storage and distribution being chief among them.
A $20k LiPo4 battery in every home can remove almost all base load needs and is available today.
Get to 100% solar, then figure out how much coal/gas/oil can slowly be removed.
Genuine question out of curiosity, do people think it would be more efficient to have some sort of battery substation for a neighborhood that's funded publicly? I just think it would be really inefficient to have everyone fund their own private batteries. It'll be way easier to balance a neighborhood than each individual house.
You start running into major issues with regulation and ownership of equipment that there isn't a vested interest in solving. If a local battery isn't owned by the utility company, who owns it? How do you track power input and use? Can one house use another house's power?
It is a lot less complicated to keep things separated.
Sorry I should have probably worded it better I meant that it would be run by a public utility not by residents.
Run by a public utility, I don't see any problem.
We own it. It belongs to us. It's mine, and it's yours.
It's public.
And how do you answer the second and third questions?
Things get a lot cleaner when you make the local infrastructure owned by a public utility.
I'm not qualified to answer but I do know there are losses in transmission and ac/dc conversion for that transmission.
I'm by no means an expert just trying to think things through logically I could absolutely be incorrect in any of my assumptions.
That being said I believe inverters go up in efficiency as their capacity increases, add this the fact that they need to be over provisioned to allow for peak draw times and it makes sense that a substation that averages a neighborhoods demand would be able to cut down on cost by averaging.
The benefit of everyone having their own batteries is resiliency. If I have batteries I have power in an outage whether the downed wire is in my front yard or miles away.
There’s probably also some free market benefit in purchasing decisions - some people will choose to spend for more capacity while others have an incentive to save money/power usage
Redundancy could be achieved by multiple power stations run municipally, moreover buying in bulk gives the city more leverage to negotiate price than individuals.
Also supposing that the cost of the battery was fielded by individuals it's just not feasible for the 65% of Americans living paycheck to paycheck to have an additional $20,000 expense and this is something that needs to happen now not down the road.
If the municipal government is going to foot some of that cost it'd be really inefficient to do so in each individual's home as apposed to a centralized site and project
Hard sell. Also, say through collective action we actually somehow get governments to pay for a $20,000 battery for every home. How will you make that many, who will install them, who will maintain and replace them? You need a very large number of trained electricians and manufacturing capacity to make that a reality. You also need to plan for and earmark funds for replacements to make it not a complete waste. Just throwing out batteries as a solution is way easier said than done. There are a lot of barriers. That is why things take time.
Nuclear is about $6k per KWatt. Solar with battery is about $5k per KWatt.
If it's cost effective to build and maintain a nuclear reactor for $6k per KWatt, then it can also be done with the cheaper solar.
Yes it takes lots of money, people and planning. So does operating a coal mine. No one says, "We can't have coal power, where are all the trained miners going to come from? Someone will need to drive that coal to the powerplant and that power plant will need trained electricians. It's a huge problem!"
I hate to tell you, very few places are building new nuclear plants as well.
The Fossil industries have lobbyists and money on their side yes, but their infrastructure also already exists. That's our biggest challenge. And it takes functional governments looking out for the interests of citizens to build and/or subsidize infrastructure. And functional government takes an educated and engaged electorate.
And because there are few plants being built, the cost is design is massive.
And a government that's willing to continue funding a growing expense to nuclear reactors such as maintenance or when building one goes over budget.
I think the problem from the capitalist standpoint is that its not a very profitable business model, well thats fine then the public sector should do it just like we do the roads and other essential services. But no politician in america would even have the balls to propose that.
*Hate to be nitpicky, but a lot of assumptions go into a "$/kW" LCOE. Your effective costs for the solar + battery are going to be very different in different parts of the world depending on factors such as seasons, land value & labour.
Also not a lot of nuclear is being built atm anywhere unfortunately.
Sounds like we got a (green) new deal work program on our hands. Nice.
Yes, that's what it will take. And we're going to have to fight like hell for it.
In addition to other comments here, I think that there’s added risk to having such a starkly segmented way of running things. Having neighborhood stations (publically owned/owned by the utility service provider) reduces a lot of redundancy and hedges some risk for families. If a battery fails and gets spicy it’s less likely to put a family out of their home, when a substation could be highly specialized for managing that kind of risk so that even if a battery or several batteries fail, it doesn’t impact the whole. There’s also some specialization that goes into handling them at end of life, and trusting normal every day laypeople to both maintain and manage them is a tall ask when most people find themselves in a position to be unable to do larger maintenance on their homes already (it cost me 20k to put in a sump pump and encapsulate my crawl space to treat and protect it from mold and pinhole beetles, which I could only do by taking out a loan that I’m still paying for).
You are going to grow crops to feed a planet with oil burning power plants? Have you ever even seen a Midwestern farm?
Besides, using solar now saves the oil for future global emergencies. Burning it all now, when it doesn't need to be burned up is stupid.
Manufacturing and installation manpower are very real problems that take many years to solve. We needed to start working on them a long time ago. And they should be the first step in moving forward.
Problem here is that the engineers are saying "this problem is hard for these reasons" and people like you are screaming that you don't care, fix it. And when they say it'll take X years, your scream that it isn't good enough. Or that the goal posts are moving (problems are complex and involve more than one thing). There standard you're setting is unreasonable.
Calm down (helpful I know). Stop yelling at people when they are trying to work the problem. It isn't going to get done the way you like but it can get done if you stop asking for impossible.
Really? I'm an electrical engineer and your understanding of the problem indicates you aren't an engineer or you suck at your job (or did you not just positively assert production capacity and storage are minor problems?). Any decent engineer wouldn't call out moving goal posts on a complex problem. Public awareness of difficulties is a way to get support for decidedly unsexy problems (nothing gets people hard like utilities). And layman screaming about shit they don't understand is also a problem.
And that comparison is worthless. Fucking everything is minor compared to the destruction of the planet, but that doesn't help. It's dismissive of real issues and only makes things harder.
Thus I hold that you suck at your job if you aren't lying on the Internet. I also note that you neglected my other points.
They are both problems. They both can and do exist. Decentralizing like you suggested reduces the problems from my first comment, but it brings a whole new set of problems that are arguably bigger. Either way the capacity needed to attempt it will take huge leaps in manufacturing and installation capacity. And we need to get started on that yesterday if we want this to happen in a decade.