Political Discussion and Commentary

cross-posted from: https://feddit.org/post/4205494

State and federal authorities are investigating a deliberately set fire that destroyed ballots inside a drop box in southwest Washington on Monday morning.

In every swing state, Trump has either closed the gap if he was behind, or broadened the lead if he was ahead.

I'm not saying it's over, or that there can't be surprises, but it looks like the Democrats have failed to run a campaign that the American public found compelling.

Saying the public is stupid or racist or whatever doesn't cover it. The bottom line is the Democrats haven't put forth a plan or made a case that they can deal quickly with the problems in America.

They have made announcements about student loan plans and forgiveness that were blocked, making them look unorganized and ineffective. They lost abortion rights. They never make progress on healthcare or taxes on the wealthy.

I want to win. I think we should fight surer battles, and avoid battles that will lose. Blaming Republicans for stopping us just makes them seem stronger than us. Let's stop making excuses and go on the offensive. No more, "Well don't vote for HIM, he's so dumb!"

It's hasn't worked.

cross-posted from: https://lemm.ee/post/44904749

I heard about this in the UK elections recently, and someone recommended it to me recently for the US elections, because I said I empathize with the people who are voting against Kamala because of the genocide, despite being a Kamala supporter myself (you've probably seen me around arguing as such lol).

Basically, it's a system where people in safe states, like me, agree to trade votes with someone in a swing state. So the safe state person would vote with the heart of the person in the swing state, so they can kind of vote their heart and mind at the same time.

Is this a thing we could set up? Would it be legal to make a community for that, or would it rub against laws about affecting votes or something? There was even a whole site for the UK, but not sure if it would work in the US.

Stories that talk about all the bad things Trump has done are only seen by the left. This makes the left hate Trump and his supporters more, while the right feels increasingly "oppressed" by this hate. They run to their savior Trump and the viscous cycle continues. More media presence for him only adds to his influence, negative press possibly moreso than positive.

People on the left should ignore Trump and talk about real issues. It is the only way to defeat a sith.

What should we do after Harris/Walz is elected? I was wondering if you had some ideas. Here are mine:

• Mass strikes in the workplace, demands being taxes for the rich and higher wages
• Mass strikes in the military, demands being to end support for Israel, take away excessive military bases, shut down Gitmo, drastically reduce the budget, &c
• Get as many people off the internet as possible
• Get people arms and arms training so they can defend themselves without police, and heavily reduce police funding
• Refuse to pay any landlords, lead attacks on real estate offices

Maybe some stuff would be extreme, but I ask you please to separate the wheat from the chaff, along with adding your own material. I may not be that smart, but at least I'm preparing.

(If you want to remember to vote, set yourself a timer like everyone else with memory issues. It should go ding on the day you get your ballot!)

I also feel kinda hazy

I'm not saying that freedom of speech IS a bad idea, or that the government should simply censor ideas that are harmful, but the idea to just silence people for misinformation seems to be gaining traction.

To be clear: I am NOT pointing fingers and accusing any political party (including the D-Party) of being censorious, or accusing censorship and its proponents as malicious, nor saying there is a conspiracy out to promote censorship. It simply seems that, due to a surge in right-wing terror attacks and the Capitol riots, people have become more accepting of censorship, from Popper's "intolerance of tolerance" to laws against homophobia and conspiracy theories, in search of a comfortable, safe state of society.

I also want to ask how censorship would be enforced. How would riots be dealt with? How would the police be handled? How would jails be prevented from overloading?

Also, this question is not directed at Anarchists. Some leftists don't like censorship, and others do, and I want to ask those that do.

If this question is stupid, tell me why. I may end up seeing myself that this question is stupid, and if so, I'll tell you.

You never know if you might come down with the flu or have a family emergency on Nov5. Don't take the chance if you can avoid it and vote in person early!

I think most people would lean towards AOC since there seems to be lack of competition in the area of charisma and not-being-old categories.

Who do you think could be the next "Bernie Sanders" that could possibly run for president in 2028/2032? A lot can happen over the next 4 years, so 2028 there could still be a chance for a progressive president.

Men aged 35-64 are Trump's leading demographic. Republicans control nearly 100% of talk radio.

Here are the Senate races this year:

https://www.270towin.com/2024-senate-election/

"There are 34 seats up in 2024 - including a special election in Nebraska - of which 23 are held by Democrats or Independents."

AZ - Kyrsten Sinema - I - Not Running
Ruben Gallego - D - Seems likely to win. Lake is nuts.
Kari Lake - R

This wouldn't flip the seat as Sinema caucuses with the Democrats.

FL - Rick Scott - R
Debbie Mucarsel-Powell - D.
Rick Scott - Safe R.

Former RNC head Michael Steele says this is one to watch, Scott may be on the chopping block. Polling doesn't show that and with Trump having home state advantage, I don't see a split ticket there.

MD - Ben Cardin - D - Not Running
Angela Alsobrooks - Safe D.
Larry Hogan - R

MI - Debbie Stabenow - D - Not Running
Elissa Slotkin - Safe D.
Mike Rogers - R

MT - Jon Tester - D
Jon Tester - D
Tim Sheehy - R - Ahead in polling.

Likely flip D to R, despite the fact that Tester is well liked in MT. Polling is giving Sheehy the edge.

NV - Jacky Rosen - D
Jacky Rosen - Safe D.
Sam Brown - R

OH - Sherrod Brown - D
Sherrod Brown - D.
Bernie Moreno - R

Tossup. Brown leads in 4/5 polls, but it's a margin of error lead. Moreno is up in the most recent polling.

PA - Bob Casey - D
Bob Casey - Safe D.
David McCormick - R

TX - Ted Cruz - R
Colin Allred - D
Ted Cruz - Safe R.

Allred is up in only one poll, if the Cancun thing didn't sink Cruz, nothing will. Texas is gonna Texas.

WI - Tammy Baldwin - D
Tammy Baldwin - Safe D.
Eric Hovde - R

WV - Joe Manchin - I - Not Running
Glenn Elliott - D
Jim Justice - Safe R.

The following races are rated as safe for the incumbent party.

CA - Laphonza Butler - D - Not Running
Adam Schiff - Safe D.
Steve Garvey - R.

CT - Chris Murphy - D
Chris Murphy - Safe D.
Matt Corey - R.

DE - Tom Carper - D - Not Running
Lisa Blunt Rochester - Safe D.
Eric Hansen - R.

HI Mazie Hirono - D
Mazie Hirono - Safest D that ever D'd.
Bob McDermott - R

IN - Mike Braun - R - Running for Gov.
Valerie McCray - D.
Jim Banks - Safe R.

MA - Elizabeth Warren - D
Elizabeth Warren - Safe D.
John Deaton - R.

ME - Angus King - I
David Costello - D.
Demi Kouzounas - R.
Angus King - Safe I, Caucuses with D's.

MN - Amy Klobuchar - D
Amy Klobuchar - Safe D.
Royce White - R.

MO - Josh Hawley - R
Lucas Kunce - D.
Josh Hawley - Safe R.

MS - Roger Wicker - R
Ty Pinkins - D
Roger Wicker - Safe R.

ND - Kevin Cramer - R
Katrina Christiansen - D.
Kevin Cramer - Safe R.

NE - Deb Fischer - R
Deb Fischer - Safe R.
Dan Osborn - I

Osborn is getting closer in the polls, but I don't see a steady red state going I.

NE - Pete Ricketts - R
Preston Love - D.
Pete Ricketts - Safe R.

NJ - George Helmy - D - Not Running, replaced Menendez.
Andy Kim - Safe D.
Curtis Bashaw - R.

NM - Martin Heinrich - D
Martin Heinrich - Safe D.
Nella Domenici - R.

NY - Kirsten Gillibrand - D
Kirsten Gillibrand - Safe D.
Mike Sapraicone - R.

RI - Sheldon Whitehouse - D
Sheldon Whitehouse - Safe D.
Patricia Morgan - R.

TN - Marsha Blackburn - R
Gloria Johnson - D.
Marsha Blackburn - Safe R.

UT - Mitt Romney - R - Not Running
Caroline Gleich - D.
John Curtis - Safe R.

VA - Tim Kaine - D
Tim Kaine - Safe D.
Hung Cao - R.

VT - Bernie Sanders - I
Bernie Sanders - Safe I.
Gerald Malloy - R.

WA - Maria Cantwell - D
Maria Cantwell - Safe D.
Raul Garcia

WY - John Barrasso - R
Scott Morrow - D.
John Barrasso - Safe R.

So...

Ind. -> D +1
D -> R +1
Ind. -> R +1
Tossup - OH

Ohio and Montana are going to be the races to watch. Right now, the Senate is split 50 Republicans, 46 Democrats, 4 Independents Caucusing with Democrats (Sinema, Manchin, King, and Sanders).

As VP, Harris casts the tie breaking vote which gives the Democrats the majority in the Senate, Committee controls, etc. etc. etc.

So if Montana flips. 51 R, 45 D + 4 I = 49. Democrats are out of the majority.

WV flips with Manchin's seat going R. 52 R, 45 D + 3 I = 48.

AZ flips with Sinema's seat going D. 52 R, 46 D + 2 I = 48.

OH being the tossup, could be 53 R vs. 45 D + 2 I = 47. OTOH - Could be 52 R vs. 46 D + 2 I = 48. That would be a hold as that seat is currently D.

However you slice it though, it looks like Democrats will lose the majority in the Senate.

This is probably a bad idea, but I'll give it a whirl.

as well as the presidency

Obama had his YouTube popularity in 08', and Trump arguably won (with assistance) the internet strategy in 2016 vs Clinton.

What technological "channel" might propel the next US president to the finish line?

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Americans’ enthusiasm about voting in this year’s election has surged in recent months, with 69% of U.S. adults now saying they are “more enthusiastic than usual” about voting. This is up from 54% in March.

Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents are largely driving the surge in enthusiasm nationally. In March, 55% of Democrats and Democratic leaners said they were more enthusiastic than usual about voting; now, 78% are. Republicans and Republican leaners, who held a slight edge in enthusiasm in March, now trail Democrats by a significant margin, with their current 64% enthusiasm score up slightly from 59% in the spring.

No real changes here, next date to watch is Thursday, September 26th:

If you're trying to keep track of where we're at in the Trump prosecutions:

Updated 09/06/2024

Washington, D.C.
4 federal felonies
January 6th Election Interference
Investigation
Indictment
Arrest  <- You Are Here
Trial - The trial, originally scheduled for March 4th, had been placed on hold pending the Supreme Court ruling on Presidential Immunity.

The Supreme Court ruled that the President does enjoy limited immunity for "official acts", it now returns to lower court to determine what, if any, of his acts leading up to 1/6 were "official".

https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/01/politics/supreme-court-donald-trump-immunity/index.html

On 8/27, a new federal grand jury re-indicted Trump on all four counts in a hearing this time excluding evidence barred by the Supreme Court.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/justice-department/trump-indicted-federal-election-interference-case-supreme-court-immuni-rcna168503

"Judge Chutkan set a date of Sept. 26 for prosecutors in the office of the special counsel, Jack Smith, to submit an opening brief to her on the question of immunity."

"Judge Chutkan told Mr. Trump’s lawyers to respond to the government’s submission about immunity by Oct. 17. She also told them to finish making their arguments for why they need more discovery information from the government by Sept. 19."

"In her order, Judge Chutkan, an appointee of former President Barack Obama, set a deadline of Oct. 24 for Mr. Lauro to make a formal request to file the motion about Mr. Smith’s appointment."

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/05/us/politics/trump-election-case-jan-6.html

Conviction
Sentencing

New York
34 state felonies
Stormy Daniels Payoff
Investigation
Indictment
Arrest
Trial
Conviction <- You Are Here Guilty, all 34 counts.
Sentencing - Originally scheduled for July 11, 2024, then September 18th following the Supreme Court's ruling on Presidential immunity, sentencing is now delayed until 11/26, after the election.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/06/nyregion/trump-sentencing-delay-ruling.html

Georgia
10 state felonies
Election Interference
As of 3/13/24 - Judge McAfee cleared 6 charges, 3 against Trump, saying they were too generic to be enforced.
As of 3/15/24 - The case may proceed, but either Fulton County DA, Fani Willis and her office or Special Prosecutor Nathan Wade must remove themselves due to the appearance of impropriety.
Investigation
Indictment
Arrest <- You Are Here
All 19 defendants have surrendered.
Trial - October 4th, 2024 hearing has been set to determine if Fani Willis can remain on the case.
Three defendants, Kenneth Chesebro, Sidney Powell, and bail bondsman Scott Hall, have all pled guilty and have agreed to testify in other cases.
Conviction
Sentencing

Florida
40 federal felonies
Top Secret Documents charges
Investigation
Indictment
Original indictment was for 37 felonies.   3 new felonies were added on July 27, 2023.
Arrest <- You Are Here
Trial - The trial had been set to begin May 20, 2024, but was subsequently delayed indefinitely by the judge, and has now been dismissed outright under the claims that the prosecutor was not Constitutionally appointed.
https://www.reuters.com/legal/judge-tosses-trump-documents-case-ruling-prosecutor-unlawfully-appointed-2024-07-15/

Jack Smith appealed Judge Cannon's ruling on Monday, 8/26 to the 11th circuit.

https://www.npr.org/2024/08/26/g-s1-19642/special-counsel-jack-smith-judge-cannon-appeal-trump-classified-documents
Conviction
Sentencing

Other grand juries, such as for the documents at Bedminster, or the Arizona fake electors, have not been announced.

The E. Jean Carroll trial for sexual assault and defamation where Trump was found liable and ordered to pay $5 million before immediately defaming her again resulting in a demand for $10 million is not listed as it's a civil case and not a crimimal one. He was found liable in that case for $83.3 million.

There had been multiple cases in multiple states to remove Trump from the ballot, citing ineligibility under the 14th amendment.

The Supreme Court ruled on March 4th that states do not have the ability to determine eligibility in Federal elections.

https://www.cbsnews.com/colorado/video/united-states-supreme-court-overturns-colorado-supreme-court-donald-trump-ballot-ruling/

I run this analysis in Politics whenever there's a post about "New national poll says..." but we don't allow self posts over there so it's always buried in a comment.

National polls are useless because we don't have national elections. Red states are gonna red state and blue states are gonna blue state.

So knowing that, here are the current results for states that are in play:

Let's see the state breakdown now:

Arizona: Toss Up. Harris +1, Trump +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/

Nevada: Toss Up. Harris +2, Tie
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/

New Mexico: Harris +8/+11
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/new-mexico/

Texas: Trump +3/+5
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/texas/

Georgia: Harris +1/+2
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/

Florida: Trump +3/+4
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/florida/

North Carolina: Trump +1/+2/+4
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/florida/

Virginia: Harris +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/virginia/

Pennsylvania: Toss Up, 2 tied polls, Trump +1/+4/+5

Michigan: Harris +2, tie
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/

Wisconsin: Harris +4/+5, Trump +1
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/

Minnesota: Harris +5/+7/+10
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/minnesota/

So... changes from last time...

Nevada moves from Harris to toss up. Georgia has moved more to Harris. Michigan is still Harris but getting closer.

Plotted on the map, Harris only needs 1 of the three toss up states to win. Trump needs ALL THREE to hit 271.

Please support whatever local journalism you have in your area, if you have any. Financially if possible / subscriptions. They are one of the few organizations that give a voice in support of the public good, and very rarely receive the thanks and gratitude they deserve.

Many areas no longer have local journalism and are controlled by large corporations (most local TV news for example). In that case there is not much that can be done unless you are a journalist yourself.

The media is arguably a 4th branch of government that can help to maintain a system of checks and balances.