this post was submitted on 01 May 2024
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If this were to come to pass, it would be a massive hit to the middle class. Truckers make up a HUGE part of the American middle class work force.
Also consider the economic impact to all of the gas stations and rest stops created primarily to service them, a huge amount of infrastructure exists to service truckers. That said, many could convert for autonomous service needs? I expect it to be a net loss for them also. RIP Loves?
And from a technical point of view, it's a lesser challenge than generalized self-driving because point A and B are already known for each route, so more of the route could be "hardcoded" (not actually hardcoded but I think you get the concept).
That said, I can't predict the timeline of when this would be feasible, but when it happens I expect it will cause a lot of anger from truckers.
Anyway, the jist of my comment, this will route a substantial amount of middle class wages from the truckers to the truck owners, increasing inequality even further.
This is the biggest catalyst to sway the public toward a UBI than anything else I can imagine.
Hmm, they do have a union. It wouldn't surprise me if they push to put some rules in place about requiring a driver in the cab for safety.
Which wouldn't even be a stretch, really. Heavy loads are dangerous, and I don't think people have a lot of faith in autonomous vehicles right now.
Kinda like how planes are 95% automated these days, but we still keep two highly skilled and well paid pilots in board in case of emergency.
Planes carry passengers though, not cargo... although you could technically fly a pilotless cargo plane... eh, better not, forget you read that.
I once lived in a town that if you want to be an uber driver you also legally needed to be a current taxi driver. Kinda completely missed the point. Though I did like how the taxi drivers couldn't screw me.
I hated that town though.
But on the flip side, you also have to consider how much cheaper, well, literally everything, will be when it doesn't cost $30 an hour to move a product from one place to another?
Everything will cost so much less that Universal Basic Income wouldn't need to be anywhere near as high as it is right now to be "living wage".
Like it or not - self driving trucks are coming. We need to find a way to adjust to that. The timeline for when is probably not "when will the tech be ready" but rather "when will society be ready". I'm pretty sure if you deployed self driving trucks today, pitchforks would come out and those trucks would be blocked by civil disobedience.
Slow it down too much though, and you'll put your whole economy at a global disadvantage. A first would country could easily become a third world one by refusing to allow autonomous trucks. Autonomous trucks already exist and not just on pristine highways — for example they're used on mine sites with no roads at all — https://thewest.com.au/business/mining/bhp-autonomous-trucks-collide-at-jimblebar-iron-ore-mine-in-pilbara-ng-b881139676z
Nothing will be cheaper. It'll go to profits.
Assuming companies would pass the saving to their customers, which is usually not the case these days.
Remember when prices went down when self checkout became a thing everywhere?
I dont.
Oh you sweet summer child. There is zero chance that the cost savings will be passed on to consumers. In fact, I'll bet prices go up after an initial plateau.
At first, profits will rise due to the lack of $30/hr costs - and shareholders will celebrate the innovation.
Then when the migration to self-driving semis is complete and that profit levels out, shareholders will be pissed that the profits don't continue to rise - so prices will rise again.
No, it is not true. Trucks are big. In total, transportation is dead cheap.
When has the price of anything ever come down?
I've been around for quite some time now, and I've seen things get pretty damn advanced, but not once have I EVER seen the prices of something go down.
Those mining trucks don't have to deal with Altimas.
But of course! Trickle down economy at work! /s
It doesn't cost much to have a driver as compared to the value amd volume of product. The expense is the fuel.
yeah, and it is all good until there is any kind of non-standard situation on that road.
luckily for truckers, i think that truly self-driving cars are further into the future than their proponents would like you to believe.
I'm betting garbage trucks actually end up being first. A half dozen trucks per human monitor sitting back at the station, with two guys in a pickup to run out to any problems.
i would guess these would be last. the garbage cans are not on the highway, they are in potentially hard accessible places, where some maneuvering and judgement may be required.
I read somewhere that the largest class of jobs in half the US states was truck driver and it's high in most other places (that article says 600k). They are likely to be the first sector almost wiped out by AI, followed by call centre workers and a lot of the legal profession. Good luck reskilling all those people. Here in the UK, call centres were often opened in areas of low employment, so we'll see a lot of the already decimated old industrial areas hollowed out.
Yeah, but think of the amount of damage that happens due to accidents where trucks are involved. If that can be substantially reduced it would be a huge win. We're talking about thousands of lives saved each year.