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The vote margin in swing states in each of the past few presidential elections has been razor thin. It only takes a few thousand people in each swing state staying home to swing the election his way.
Centrist voters in the US are also quite prone to "fuck you" votes against the president's party when they aren't happy about economic conditions, and lots of Americans are feeling a cost of living pinch right now.
In October polling, 78% of Americans said the country was headed in the wrong direction.
It's really not far from possible that he-who-shall-not-be-named gets in again. He has a hardened base that has been drinking the Kool-aid of his stolen election rhetoric, up against a disillusioned and scattered Democratic coalition that has been losing steam among demographics like African Americans and Latinos.
He doesn't need to win new voters. He just needs Biden to lose a few.
For sure! The CoL thing is a major issue! The fact that most of the money supply pumped into the market was under Trump's direction (pressuring the Fed, Tax Cuts, business stimulus, and a little bit the personal stimulus) and that Biden is the first president in decades to actually follow economist opinions on what to do about it (limit money supply, raise interest, expand supply of raw material sources, pressure investment in actual good creation, etc) means very little to others who can just say "Don't you wish things were the way they were 4 years ago".