politics

If there is interest we can add the Mississippi, Missouri, and Michigan election news here as well. They are state and local primary elections but I've not seen much interest by the community.

Edit: Looks like there isn't.

This measure is so blatantly anti-democratic that I can barely understand how anyone could justify it. I get text messages from right-leaning groups though and these are the kinds of things they’re using to push this initiative:

“Radicals are targeting Ohio children. Leftist amendments to the Ohio constitution will allow children to undergo dangerous sex changes without parental consent, and allow men to dominate women's sports. Protect your parental rights. Protect your children.“

It’s so ridiculously stupid and over-the-top, do Republicans actually believe this trash? It’s obviously about abortion, I’m surprised they don’t come out and just say it.

I voted ‘No’ on the measure, however, Brexit, of all things, did make me think about this a little more. I think Brexit was a universally stupid move for Britain and I can’t imagine something so incredibly important was left up to a slim ~51-49 vote result, when it should’ve been something more like 60-40, which could’ve prevented Brexit altogether.

Yet I’m doing the exact opposite in voting against Issue 1, which I should be in support of, since it would make it harder for potentially catastrophic initiatives from getting passed. I guess it’s painfully obvious what Republicans are trying to do here AND they’re sneaking it in during a low voter turnout special election, it’s literally the only thing on the ballot in my area. I’m contradicting myself because I don’t trust the motives of the people pushing it.

Good analysis as usual from 538: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ohio-issue-1-abortion-ballot-measures/

For those who haven't seen coverage yet, in brief: as usual republicans saw a defeat coming in a democratic election (the 50%+1 threshold November ballot initiative to enshrine reproductive rights into Ohio's constitution), so they are attempting to change the rules in their favor (require constitutional amendments to get 60% of the vote, effectively allowing minority rule) in an early off-season ballot measure today.

Despite the early positive indications that this measure has an uphill battle, if you are in Ohio please vote.

Is this the same referendum format requiring half the votes +1 to pass? The exact thing they're trying to kill off?

EDIT: The measure should have to be supported by the same vote threshold to pass that it seeks to impose.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/election-results/2023/ohio-issue-1/

Votes received and percentages of total vote
Response Votes Pct.
Yes 111,710 28.4 %
No 281,694 71.6 %
An estimated 12.6 percent of votes have been counted.

As of 7:50 PM right now.

Edit 1: 7:53 PM
Yes 138,143 29.4 %
No 331,325 70.6 %

Edit 2: 7:55 PM
Yes 158,861 29.1 %
No 387,174 70.9 %

17.5% counted.

Edit 3: 8:04 PM
Yes 193,220 29.7 %
No 457,553 70.3 %

20.8% counted.

Edit 4: 8:19 PM

Yes 232,355 30.9 %
No 519,368 69.1 %

24.1% counted. Yeah I don't see it passing.

Edit 5: 8:25 PM

Wasserman and Decision Desk already called it for No. Will see how big of a margin now, but it is clear the proposition failed.

Edit 6: 8:48 PM

Yes 376,012 37.1 %
No 638,696 62.9 %

32.5% counted.

Edit 7: 8:56 PM

Washington Post projects No winning.

Yes 429,617 38.1 %
No 697,980 61.9 %

36.9% counted.

Edit 8: 9:15 PM

Yes 603,050 40.7 %
No 878,360 59.3 %

47.4% counted. Keep in mind a lot of the urban/city areas haven't even counted most of their votes yet where the more rural areas have.

Edit 9: 9:22 PM

Yes 744,053 42.5 %
No 1,006,127 57.5 %

56% counted.

Edit 10: 9:30 PM

Yes 809,110 42.8 %
No 1,082,764 57.2 %

60.5 % counted. Urban areas still undercounted.

Edit 11: 10:06 PM

Yes 1,100,677 43.2 %
No 1,448,086 56.8 %

81.5% counted.

Edit 12: 10:36 PM

Yes 1,217,867 43.4 %
No 1,585,920 56.6 %

89.7% counted. Cuyahoga and Lucas counties seem to be the ones having a decent chunk to count still. Both heavily leaning No.

Edit 14: 8:33 AM

Yes 1,315,346 43.0 %
No 1,744,094 57.0 %

97.9% counted. Looking like a slam dunk and massive support for No. Winner winner chicken dinner.

OK, these numbers are looking remarkably good. Definitely exceeding predictions that already had the measure being soundly defeated.

So I have to wonder... How far off are the polls nationally? We know the Republican party is shrinking, and we know that polls are getting harder to do because people under 50 tend not to answer cellphone calls from numbers they don't know.

Is it possible that next year will actually be a landslide for both Biden and Democrats in the House and Senate? I don't want to get too hopeful, but Ohio's kind of a bellwether, and this... This looks good. This looks very good.

I actually think you should make it somewhat difficult to do direct democracy votes. There was a crisis in California a while back because the voters decided to mandate taxes don't go up, and also spending does go up substantially. As separate propositions, both things sound good, but the reason for little-r republican representation is that if your legislator did both those things and caused a crisis you would vote them out. People in charge of institutions have longer term responsibility.

Or look at Brexit where a slight majority voted for it and a majority now regret it since it caused all the economic pain and political chaos everyone was saying it would.

So I think there is an argument for the threshold being above 50%, I think 60% is pretty high but you can make the argument, maybe something in the middle is reasonable. Preferable to me is something like a double approval process...any amendment needs to get approved by 50%+, followed by a mandatory vote in the legislature and if confirmed it would become law, but if it fails it would get another public vote where it would need to get 50%+ and if it got it, become law.

All that said, I don't want abortion banned in Ohio, I know that's pretty heavily a part of this vote in particular but just wanted to talk about the actual argument for a bit.

AP projects issue 1 is defeated.

This is a seems somewhat hopeful sign about the current electorate. And turnout looks much better than anticipated. 40% in many areas so far. For a special election, that’s very high.

The entire country is metro areas, suburbs, college towns, and everything else is rural Arkansas. Florida just gets that added bonus of the Sunshine Laws that do so well to expose the crazies in an efficient manner. Florida overall has not actually been full on red for decades (maybe conservative tinted, but not R red), even if it kinda feels like it.

Let's vote Ohio! I am in Alabama but I am very interested in this.