Believe it when the final votes are tallied.
this post was submitted on 02 Apr 2024
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That would be encouraging if Haley had more supporters.
I wanted to argue with this but you're right. She got 14% of the republican votes in ohio, and 7% of 3 mil republican ohio voters in 2020 is still only like 150k, fewer votes than biden lost ohio by in 2020. I guess you could also subtract that 150k from Trump's 2020 total and even then he's slightly ahead...also i'm pretty sure most Haley voters crossed the aisle in 2020 anyway, just based on anecdote
It's not bad news, certainly, but it's more alarming how few Republican voters are willing to consider alternatives to Trump.
If they just stay home, that's half the battle..
In addition, in these primaries some Dems may have voted in the Republican primary, given that there was no point to vote in the Democratic primary.
Oh right on did not realize they had open primaries...wtf is this article even
I mean, those numbers are not insignificant when the race will probably come down to single digits percentages in most battleground states.
Technically, those 4 people might be just enough for Biden to crawl over an automatic recount threshold 🤷
If you look at the primary numbers, it's not nearly enough.
Trump - 889,001
Haley - 161,357
On the Democratic side:
Biden - 456,523
And, yeah, more people are motivated to vote in the general than the primary, but if you look at 2020 and 2016:
Trump - 3,154,834
Biden - 2,679,165
Trump - 2,841,005
Clinton - 2,394,164
An extra 80,000 Haley voters isn't changing that.
80k out of 1.05mil is 7.6%. If you consider that 7.6% of Republican primary voters are considering voting for Biden, then those numbers look a little different. If 7.6% of Republicans in Ohio who voted for Trump in 2020 decided to vote for Biden in 2024 then that could certainly change the outcome of the election.
A 7.6% change would result in Biden having 2.919 million votes and Trump with 2.914 million votes. While some of these Haley voters probably already voted for Biden in 2020, there could still be a large enough shift in voter choice to make a difference. Especially if the Democrats have a large turnout in the general election. After the bullshit that Republicans have been up to lately, I think that people are at least angry enough to go out and vote out of spite.
Edit: Nevermind, I'm probably wrong. I didn't realize that Ohio has open primaries, so these numbers probably don't matter.
moderate conservatives gonna moderate conservative, I suppose
I have a begrudging respect for Nikki Haley in being kind of the “last real republican” - but at the same time gee whiz, who would guess that Joe Biden would appeal so strongly to republicans