this post was submitted on 26 Jan 2024
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Let’s say Trump wins and Europe loses its security guarantee from the US.

Then the EU beefs up its military and coordinate its combined forces and military production up to the point that they are no longer in need of US military assistance in future conflicts.

What will be the ramifications for the US if this was to play out in terms of trade, geo political influence etc.

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[–] DandomRude 0 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago)

I agree that, from a European perspective, the USA has unfortunately turned out to be an unreliable partner, mainly because of the Trumpist's strange closeness to Russia. But I don't see why Europe needs to massively rearm its military because of this. Europe has nuclear weapons, which makes open conflict pretty unlikely in the first place. What's more, I don't believe that Europe could build a competitive conventional army even with massive investment. For this reason, the path that Switzerland (not part of the EU) is taking, i.e. far-reaching neutrality with simultaneous economic cooperation with more or less all players, seems to me to make more sense. I just think that instead of spending billions on armaments, it would be much better to invest in futureproof infrastructure. There is a massive lack of this in Germany, for example - in terms of telecommunications, transport and in the energy sector. I am simply not convinced by the arguments of military deterrence, especially as I think that Europe has little prospect of ever reaching a corresponding level in conventional warfare capacity anyway - all the more so in the very unlikely worstcase scenario that is that the USA under Trump turns into an autocracy with Russia as a partner.