this post was submitted on 18 Jan 2025
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That's not 100% true. One can make educated guesses based historical patterns. Here are a couple of examples.
For instance, in 2008 when the markets crashed, the travel industry crashed harder and oil stocks tanked. The same happened in 2020 and the oil stock I bought at a 90% discount paid off my student loans a few years ago after the rebound. (Thanks, Permian Resources.)
Another, you can follow the portfolio of a federal legislator like Nancy Pelosi or Ted Cruz, because for them, insider trading is legal and they profit handsomely from it, and when given the opportunity to make it illegal Congress always votes it down.
You're right that things can never be 100% predicted, but we can make educated choices based on historical info, yes. This is why every mutual fund page you look at gives you the name and tenure of the fund manager.
Yes there are things happening on the markets which you can find causal connections for but market efficiency stops you from benefiting, as the information available is the same for everyone (unless insider info is used). In 2020 you bet on something and were lucky.
Following public portfolios is following public information which is available to the public an therefore also will not work (on average, of course you can be lucky). If this would yield consistent results, everyone would do it and it would stop working.
What you might percieve as an educated guess is more or less a 50/50 bet minus the transaction cost in the best case and a bet with worse odds in any other case. Research has shown that people trading with what they think is educated guessing performs worse than just doing random transactions.