I suppose the question is whether or not the rebels can maintain their momentum, especially since it doesn't seem like they currently have any overt foreign backing.
this post was submitted on 01 Dec 2023
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Depends how much cocain the CIA can sell to finance then
The biggest concern is that this opposition is an alliance of convenience. Once they no longer have the central military dictatorship as a common enemy, what then? Hopefully they can arrive at a good diplomatic solution, but I wouldn't be holding my breath.
Seeing the trend of conflict there is a good chance the nation will plunge into another civil war after the junta goes down. This might make Myanmar a failed state similar to Somalia. I do hope ASEAN does something about it cause they would be directly affected if this happen.
ASEAN does something
Ha ha, good one.
In a best case scenario, the NUG will adopt a federalist system allowing the EAMs power in their provinces.
This is the best summary I could come up with:
BANGKOK (AP) — About two weeks into a major offensive against Myanmar’s military-run government by an alliance of three well-armed militias of ethnic minorities, an army captain, fighting in a jungle area near the northeastern border with China, lamented that he’d never seen such intense action.
The military, known as the Tatmadaw, remains far bigger and better trained than the resistance forces, and has armor, airpower and even naval assets to fight the lightly armed militias organized by various ethnic minority groups.
Military leaders responded with brutal crackdowns and have arrested more than 25,000 people and killed more than 4,200 as of Friday, according to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners, and U.N. independent investigators earlier this year accused the regime of being responsible for multiple war crimes.
Their success has been slow, with the Tatmadaw making use of naval power off the west coast to bombard positions, along with concentrated artillery and air strikes, according to a report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Well aware of Beijing’s irritation over the criminal activity along its border, the Three Brotherhood Alliance underlined as it launched its offensive that it was committed to “combatting the widespread online gambling fraud that has plagued Myanmar.”
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin skirted a question about those allegations this week, instead telling reporters that Beijing “respects the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Myanmar” and reiterating calls for peace.
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