this post was submitted on 17 Feb 2024
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In five years time, some CTO will review the mysterious outage or technical debt in their organisation.

They will unearth a mess of poorly written, poorly -documented, barely-functioning code their staff don't understand.

They will conclude that they did not actually save money by replacing human developers with LLMs.

#AI #LLM #LargeLanguageModels #WebDev #Coding #Tech #Technology @technology

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[–] [email protected] 69 points 7 months ago (2 children)

@ajsadauskas @technology lol you don't need LLMs to end up in that mess ... seen it everywhere

[–] [email protected] 24 points 7 months ago (1 children)

NGL, was totally expecting a different last paragraph. 😂

[–] [email protected] 3 points 7 months ago

One sentence a paragraph does not make.

[–] [email protected] 10 points 7 months ago (1 children)

@zenkat @technology Totally agree.

But.

It's a surefire way to get yourself in that mess in rapid time, when you otherwise wouldn't.

[–] [email protected] 20 points 7 months ago

@ajsadauskas @technology AI: do more stupid stuff faster!

[–] [email protected] 47 points 7 months ago (1 children)

@ajsadauskas @technology I agree right up to the end. I think they'll conclude they need a more powerful LLM.

[–] fluckx 17 points 7 months ago (1 children)

Good thing by then we'll have oracle LLM. You may only use it for writing software. But we'll definitely charge you for answering questions about life the universe and everything.

That'll be all your profit this year minus the C-level bonuses please.

Average CTO: what a steal!

[–] SkippingRelax 4 points 7 months ago

And the Web interface will be that of PeopleSoft!

[–] TootSweet 40 points 7 months ago (2 children)

They will conclude that they did not actually save money by replacing human developers with LLMs.

The next CTO might realize that. If there hasn't been a change in upper-level management, they'll just double down and blame the few remaining human developers for the mess.

CTO's are incapable of self-reflection.

[–] [email protected] 23 points 7 months ago

A fellow had just been hired as the new CEO of a large high tech corporation. The CEO who was stepping down met with him privately and presented him with three numbered envelopes. "Open these if you run up against a problem you don't think you can solve," he said.

Well, things went along pretty smoothly, but six months later, sales took a downturn and he was really catching a lot of heat. About at his wit's end, he remembered the envelopes. He went to his drawer and took out the first envelope. The message read, "Blame your predecessor."

The new CEO called a press conference and tactfully laid the blame at the feet of the previous CEO. Satisfied with his comments, the press -- and Wall Street - responded positively, sales began to pick up and the problem was soon behind him.

About a year later, the company was again experiencing a slight dip in sales, combined with serious product problems. Having learned from his previous experience, the CEO quickly opened the second envelope. The message read, "Reorganize." This he did, and the company quickly rebounded.

After several consecutive profitable quarters, the company once again fell on difficult times. The CEO went to his office, closed the door and opened the third envelope.

The message said, "Prepare three envelopes."

~Stolen~ ~from~ ~reddit~

[–] [email protected] 11 points 7 months ago

@TootSweet @ajsadauskas They'll just completely rewrite it from scratch using a newer LLM and that will be considered normal. In those 5yrs the percentage of developers who remember the idea of code having longevity will be tiny.

[–] [email protected] 27 points 7 months ago (1 children)

I dunno, humans are more than capable of doing this already.

[–] FenrirIII 8 points 7 months ago

Outsourcing is such a mixed bag. I have 2 projects outsourced to a company in India: one is magnificent and well documented and the other looks like a crack fiend wrote it. Both work, but only one is sustainable

[–] esc27 19 points 7 months ago (10 children)

I don’t disagree, but I’ve heard this before. Assembly devs complaining about compiled languages. C/c++ devs complaining about every newer language. Traditional devs complaining about web developers. Backend web developers complaining about blogs/cms tools. Nearly everyone complaining about electron.

And honestly I think those folks had a point. The old stuff written when the tools were simple and memory scarce were almost works of art. The quality of software development (especially with regard to optimization) has been going downhill for decades. What ever the llms do will just be part of this trend.

[–] jacksilver 17 points 7 months ago (1 children)

The use of LLMs though is more similar to outsourcing than it is to a new technology. No one is talking a out changing how we program, we're talking about changing who does the programming.

While outsourcing has had its ups and downs, I think most companies have found that skilled technical people can't really be outsourced easily/cost money everywhere. I suspect we'll see a similar thing here with LLMs because the core compentcy that makes programmers/engineers expensive is knowing what to do, not how to do it.

[–] someacnt_ 2 points 7 months ago

Greatly put, offloading to llms is nothing like people choosing for "easier" high-level languages. They are not really easier as well, imo.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 7 months ago

IDK just because it's old doesn't mean it's good. I've worked on lots of legacy garbage in those lower level languages that was terrible.

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[–] [email protected] 18 points 7 months ago

I think every CTO expects to inhereit technical debt, whether by overworked devs or overautomation

[–] [email protected] 16 points 7 months ago

They'll outsource to cheaper offshore LLMs.

[–] [email protected] 15 points 7 months ago

@ajsadauskas @technology I've been thinking for a while that I truly pity anyone who's going to have to maintain this AI-generated code.

[–] [email protected] 14 points 7 months ago (1 children)

I haven't seen any talk of wholesale replacement of developers with LLMs in my organisation. What has happened is that these tools have been made extensively available to developers. I think right now they are basically being assessed in terms of how much they help developer productivity. Not sure about other places though, I agree with the idea that it's not really feasible to just straight up replace devs with an LLM.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 7 months ago

Yes, they aren't there... Yet.

[–] [email protected] 14 points 7 months ago (1 children)
[–] [email protected] 2 points 7 months ago

@veronica @ajsadauskas @technology The hype around AI in software engineering seems to be that it is ‘proven’ that devs produce code quicker. it is going to be interesting to see if the corporate world values code quality over development velocity. There seems to be a pervasive belief that “move fast and break things” is how the big guys do software engineering. A few points to note:

  1. this idiom only applies when you fail fast, realize it, and address the problem that has been introduced.
  2. Break things does not mean enshittify ie create tech debt by virtue of poor code
  3. It really only applies if you have enough development resources to do the rework. That is to say, can afford to get it wrong often.
    #AI #copilot
[–] [email protected] 11 points 7 months ago

Not five years, but this year itself

[–] [email protected] 8 points 7 months ago* (last edited 7 months ago)

@ajsadauskas @technology A system that can’t balance brackets and is awful at math is gonna do great 👍

[–] [email protected] 5 points 7 months ago (1 children)

@ajsadauskas @technology …and they’ll find themselves lapped by those who didn’t drink the LLM Kool-Aid.

[–] BrianTheeBiscuiteer 1 points 7 months ago (1 children)

If quality trumped speed and convenience how does McDonald's stay in business?

[–] [email protected] 5 points 7 months ago (1 children)

@BrianTheeBiscuiteer McDonald’s actually puts a burger on the bun. Not the best, but adequate for a quick bite. General LLMs put bullshit into the ether.

[–] BrianTheeBiscuiteer 2 points 7 months ago (1 children)

Yes, adequate is the word. The tipping point doesn't come when they're "good", it comes when they're "good enough".

[–] [email protected] 1 points 7 months ago

@BrianTheeBiscuiteer Context matters too — If I need a quick bite, McD’s will do. But you won’t catch me dead expecting to get a good steak out of them. 🤣

[–] [email protected] 4 points 7 months ago

@ajsadauskas @technology good prediction. This is basically what they always do with every overly-hyped technology.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 7 months ago
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