this post was submitted on 06 May 2024
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One of the big themes of the fall of the Roman Republic was that many leaders faced a dilemma: stay in office or face dire legal consequences. Julius Ceasar had to make sure he held office continuously for decades or else he would have been dragged through the courts.
If you asked me 15 years ago, I would have naively said that modern governments do not have this problem. But one look at Trump or Netanyahyu and the logic is clear: do everything to stay in power, because if you fail you get life in prison.
While I like the comparison between Trump's legal troubles and Julius Caesar's, my inner pedant needs to point out that Caesar was not part of the fall of the Roman Empire. Depending on how you break up the timeline, Caesar was the beginning of the end for the Roman Republic and his heir Augustus was the beginning of the Empire.
My inner pedant needs to respond and point out that I said "the fall of the Roman Republic".
So we are in pedantic agreement.
Lol, I swear I can read
Now kiss.
It's funny - Caesar (and many other populare politicians) faced state repression from proclamations which suspended the normal functioning of the law and government (Senatus consultum ultimum). Nowadays the goal is to avoid state repression from the normal functioning of the law.
It's arguable he crossed the Rubicon with his armies against Rome specifically to avoid the legal consequences of losing power. Cato was living his life to ensure Ceaser would eventually face the courts. Cato would kill himself after that was made unattainable by Caesar's own coup.
“Caesar was reported to be marching against the city with an army, then all eyes were turned upon Cato, both those of the common people and those of Pompey as well; they realised that he alone had from the outset foreseen, and first openly foretold, the designs of Caesar. 2 Cato therefore said: ‘Nay, men, if any of you had heeded what I was ever foretelling and advising, ye would now neither be fearing a single man nor putting your hopes in a single man.’”-Plutarch (Life of Cato)
'The courts' here meaning 'a kangaroo court by Cato and his fellow ultraconservatives in the Senate'.
I believe Julie C's rein came to an extrajudicial end.
If you consider Trump's current legal situation, I'd argue we absolutely still are. The political upper crust can be in contempt of court every day of the week for a month and suffer no more than a few fines they will refuse to pay. That's assuming they've pissed off someone powerful enough to actually drop the hammer and aren't pure teflon, a la Ken Paxton or Rick Scott.
So much of the current political moment is highlighted by how utterly untouchable the major party leadership demonstrates itself to be. From Nixon to Cheney to Trump, there's no agent within the system willing to level any kind of punishment.
This leads to increasingly bold actions by people grasping for that next brash ring. Greg Abbott can throw barbed wire into the Rio Grande. Ron DeSantis can ship buses full of migrants into downtown NYC and Chicago in what amounts to a kidnapping attempt. Police in Columbia and UCLA and Austin can round up college students as trespassers within their own campuses. Etc, etc.
Just increasingly illegal and corrupt activities by tin-pot dictators who no longer fear a democratic process that's been caged and disenfranchised into obsolescence.
You're not wrong, our current oligarchs can get away with almost anything. The only time they face serious consequences is when there is a coalition of other oligarchs who want to punish them.
Which is why I believe Trump and Netanyahu fall into this political trap of "win or prison". They both have many politically powerful enemies.
Maybe I'm being optimistic, I dont want to come off as a shitlib who's thinking "Mueller is really gonna get Drumpf this time!", but I think its very likely hes going to prison if hes unable to pardon himself.
Maybe. But I think there's a very good chance he wins in November. And rather than confront that possibility, we're seeing a lot of bureaucrats try to slow roll the process so as not to have to deal with the possibility of answering what you do with a President Elect who has been sentenced to a jail term.