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For US folks, is right now a good time to buy a house? (self.asklemmy)

submitted 2 days ago by Suck_on_my_Presence to c/asklemmy

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Since the election I've kinda buried my head in the sand to try and stay sane, so I'm not sure what projections are looking like for the real estate market. Unfortunately I need to move pretty ASAP and I'm having the worst luck with rentals.

So, anyone have any advice or an idea of the outlook in the next few months?

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[–] [email protected] 10 points 1 day ago

I'm neutral on the housing market right now. People buying houses are generally living in them (or renting them), there's very little house flipping like in 2005-06. There's also no interest-only mortgages, so people actually have the cash flow to stay. Rates are probably not going up, but they might come down a little. If they do drop, I think prices will go up proportionately such that the monthly payment is the same either way. New housing is being built, but not fast enough to make a major impact on demand in the near term.

Altogether, I think housing in the US is "fairly" valued on a supply/demand basis at the moment. If we get a recession, prices might dip, but I would be very surprised to see another crash like 2007-09. However, I also don't expect to see prices go up quickly from here other than in response to lower interest rates. So, if I were making a new purchase decision today, I'd be thinking about the following:

Do I plan to stay 5+ years (the longer, the better)
Can I comfortably afford to pay the mortgage (or is it at least comparable to rent)?
Can I afford a major repair bill? Especially if any of the big ticket items will hit their typical end of life in the next 5 years.

Here are some of my major home maintenance expenses from the last 10 years:

Water supply line to the house failed (polybutylene): $2.5k
Tankless hot water unit failed: $3.5k
Wildlife exclusion due to rats in the attic and crawlspace: $2k
Electrical repairs due to rats in the crawlspace chewing on wiring: $3.4k
Totally gut and rebuild kitchen & bathroom due to plumbing failure: $2k deductible, plus my homeowner's insurance increased every year since
Replaced failed mini-split HVAC system: $3.5k
Dig up and repair sewage line that was clogged with roots: $3.5k
New sod to repair the lawn after the plumbers dug it up: $1.5k

Those are the big items I recall that I had little choice in. I also replaced my way past end of life 2 zone HVAC system for about $30k. I could have kept the old one running longer and I could have gotten a cheaper replacement (maybe $22k), but the old system was struggling and couldn't keep the house comfortable anymore. I seem to recall hearing a good rule of thumb is to set aside 1-2% of your home's value every year for major maintenance and that seems about right from my experience.