this post was submitted on 26 Sep 2024
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Justin Trudeau survives no-confidence vote in Canadian parliament (www.bbc.com)
submitted 1 month ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]
21 comments fedilink hide all child comments
 

While vote to topple his government has failed, it signals a new series of tests for the prime minister.

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[–] [email protected] 16 points 1 month ago (1 children)

I think he still has one chance - which he almost certainly won't take.

Announce that he'll step down when this term is up, and immediately hold a short leadership race, with the new leader vying for a brand new PM position.

To sweeten the pot, he could toss in proper PR electoral reform. It would throw cabinet into chaos, but the Greens and NDP would probably support it; and Trudeau would go down in history with the likes of Tommy Douglas as someone who fundamentally changed Canada for the better.

But his ego is too big for the first item, and the party is too scared to let him pull off the second.

So we're likely stuck with a fucking Christofascist neo-Nazi for our next PM.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 1 month ago (1 children)

There's other options too. Among them: a massive swing away from corporate smell along with popular pro-labor rhetoric and actions; electoral reform without stepping down; Jagmeet introducing electoral reform in the current parliament, Trudeau supporting it, etc.

[–] [email protected] 10 points 1 month ago (1 children)

I like 'em, but I'm not convinced.

a massive swing away from corporate smell along with popular pro-labor rhetoric and actions

Corporations - which are already pretty damned conservative - will back the CPC with ten times the money if this happens. It would be lovely, but would guarantee a Poilievre win.

electoral reform without stepping down

That will prevent the CPC (or anyone else) from securing a majority in the next election, but I don't think it'll win the election for him.

Jagmeet introducing electoral reform in the current parliament, Trudeau supporting it

Ah, now that's interesting! I like this one quite a bit.

At the end of the day, I honestly don't believe Trudeau can win another election under any reasonable circumstances. The best he can do is stack the deck in the party's favour, and then step down.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 month ago

Corporations - which are already pretty damned conservative - will back the CPC with ten times the money if this happens. It would be lovely, but would guarantee a Poilievre win.

I doubt it'll work. There are significant limits to political spending. Corpos can't fund political campaigns directly and there isn't an easy or unlimited way to do it indirectly. It's gotta go via individuals and the limits there are small. The cons will get more but I don't think it'll be dramatically more.

That will prevent the CPC (or anyone else) from securing a majority in the next election, but I don’t think it’ll win the election for him.

Yes.

At the end of the day, I honestly don’t believe Trudeau can win another election under any reasonable circumstances. The best he can do is stack the deck in the party’s favour, and then step down.

In the current status quo probably true. Who knows what could happen with PP till the election. Perhaps something unreasonable would come out. 😅