this post was submitted on 15 Aug 2024
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“It was hiding in the celery," said DEA Special Agent in Charge Robert Murphy. "Obviously, we threw away the celery. That didn’t make it to the store.”

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[–] [email protected] 17 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) (5 children)

The crime stats are heavily skewed as undocumented persons are significantly less likely to involve the police.

Large groups of people are pretty predictable. The actual crime rates are probably much closer to the equivalent crime rates of the cities and neighborhoods that align to with their own economic status i.e class and poverty are the best predictors of crime rates, not citizenship, or lack thereof.

This isn't an argument for, or against, any immigration policy. It's an argument against using flawed statistics.

[–] FuglyDuck 9 points 3 months ago (1 children)

Dollar for dollar, hedge fund managers, bankers, CEOs and such like are far more prolific thieves than those in poverty.

(It’s kinda how they got wealthy…)

[–] [email protected] 5 points 3 months ago (2 children)

Yeah, I don't disagree.

But again, that has nothing to do with what's been discussed here.

For starters, this is about violent crime and it's not about the inherent criminality of any group of people.

It's about stats and why this particular statistic is critically flawed, and bogus.

[–] whostosay 2 points 3 months ago (1 children)

Incorrect, wage theft is the most common committed crime if we're talking about 'counts of crime' instead of just reporting.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 3 months ago (1 children)

Uh....what... incorrect...?

This entire thread was spawned from someone posting a statistic relating to violent crime rates amongst different population groups.

Financial crimes, wage theft, jaywalking, or any other criminal act you can think of, that isn't categorized as a "violent crime", is irrelevant when the discussion is about one specific flawed violent crime statistic....

[–] whostosay 1 points 3 months ago

You right, I lost track

[–] jumjummy 1 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago)

Ok, but putting this from another standpoint, while undocumented folks may be less likely to involve police for crimes committed against them, others are not so disincentivized. If these immigrants were, as the GOP likes to point out, criminals, you would expect higher crime rates reported by citizens. However, that’s not the case, and the crime that conservatives care about is only against them. They don’t care about undocumented immigrant crime against other undocumented immigrants.

[–] TempermentalAnomaly 5 points 3 months ago (1 children)

There's a lot of assumptions here.

Significant isn't specific. A specific number would give us an idea if the rate of crime committed by undocumented persons exceeds, meets, or continues to fall short of the other two groups.

Next, you're assuming that the victims of violent crimes by undocumented workers are other undocumented workers. This, to some degree makes sense. But it's not 100%.

Next, poverty in of itself isn't sufficient to predict rates of crime. Crime is a choice taken when there aren't other avenues available. Arguably, the reasons undocumented peoples move here is because their prospects are better here. That is to say, they chose to leave their people to come here instead of staying there and commiting crime. This isn't, obviously, specific. But it's a factor you didn't consider.

Finally, what do you mean by class? There's a lot of usages.

This isn't an argument to say you are wrong. It's an argument that you have been specific or open to other factors.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) (1 children)

Of course it's not specific, which is the inherent problem with these stats. Crimes that are not reported, cannot be factored into the crime rates.

But you rarely see this amount of skepticism when people point out how rapes and sexual assaults are also significantly underreported.

In both instances you have victim groups who less likely to go to the police and report the crimes.

I am not saying poor people are intrinsically more deviant, or criminal in nature. Many factors play into the increased crime rates of people in poverty, including but not limited to, desperation and over policing.

I also never said that undocumented migrants couldn't have crime rates that trend below national averages. I said that the notion that their crime rates were half the national average was bogus, for reasons that you seem to acknowledge as well.

My point wasn't to provide the framework for calculating the actual rates, or more approximate estimations, because frankly I don't have that skill set. But then again, no ideas I laid out in these comments originated from me either. These are all well known problems with that bogus stat.

Either people think disinformation, or "fake news", is bad, or they don't. They can't cry and scream about it when MAGA people use it, and then turn around and use it they when they feel it's politically expedient.

[–] TempermentalAnomaly 1 points 3 months ago

The actual crime rates are probably much closer to the equivalent crime rates of the cities and neighborhoods that align to with their own economic status

I was not defending the stats. I was critiquing your analysis and the conclusion you reached.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 3 months ago (1 children)

Real, scientifically backed, crime stats actually say the exact opposite of your claim. It turns out cops are racist as fuck, and are so much more likely to interact with and cause trouble for people of color whenever the opportunity presents itself that it’s not even a question. https://news.stanford.edu/stories/2020/05/veil-darkness-reduces-racial-bias-traffic-stops

[–] [email protected] 6 points 3 months ago

What you're talking about has exactly nothing to do what's being discussed here....

Except for the possibility that the racist reputation of police in America may contribute to the reluctance of the undocumented persons to report when that they've been a victim of a crime...

[–] vxx -2 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) (1 children)

Wouldn't that argument count more towards the victim of a crime than the perpetrator?

Why would someone not involve police when the offender is an undocumented immigrant?

Keep in mind, the statistic only includes felonies.

[–] [email protected] 12 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) (1 children)

You're assuming that undocumented persons are evenly dispersed amongst the country, and in every community, when they're not.

While you'll find undocumented persons all over the country, like any other group, there are areas of heavy concentration that account for the majority of population. And in those areas, they tend to form communities around each other.

So if the vast majority of them live within communities that comprise heavily of other undocumented migrants, those crimes that are between two and undocumented persons, are significantly less likely to be brought attention of American law enforcement.

I'm not saying never, but that is a common enough occurrence to skew those stats and make them disingenuous at best.

Again, nothing new to what I'm saying here...