this post was submitted on 17 Jul 2024
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The World Is Moving Away from Fossil Fuels. Canada Is Holding On for Dear Life | The Walrus (thewalrus.ca)
submitted 4 months ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]
31 comments fedilink hide all child comments
 

Last month, Alberta didn’t just announce it had transitioned entirely off coal as an energy source; the province kicked the fossil fuel six years ahead of a wildly ambitious schedule. The scale of achievement this represents defies exaggeration—and contains a warning for oil fans everywhere. [...] what happened to coal is coming for oil next.

Virtually every major analyst that isn’t an oil company (and even some of them, like BP) now expects global demand for oil to peak around 2030, if not sooner; McKinsey, Rystad Energy, DNV, and the International Energy Agency all agree. This places Canada in a uniquely vulnerable position. Oil is Canada’s biggest export by a mile, a vital organ of our economy: we sold $123 billion worth of it in 2022 (cars came in second, at just under $30 billion). Three quarters of that oil is exported as bitumen—the most expensive, emissions-heavy form of petroleum in the market and therefore the hardest to sell. That makes us incredibly sensitive to fluctuations in global demand. Think of coal as the canary in our oil patch.

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[–] [email protected] 38 points 4 months ago (6 children)

Other than selling mediocre coffee and McMansions to each other, Canada has precious little else. That's why we cling like limpets to extractive industry: without it, we've got nothing because our governments have comprehensively failed to develop much of an industry, preferring to give tax breaks to oil barons and house traders.

[–] Bookmeat 19 points 4 months ago

There is also West Coast forestry which is going to nosedive as we destroy most of the trees in BC as climate change burns and floods through the rest.

[–] [email protected] 7 points 4 months ago

We don't even own our shitty coffee anymore, and most of our mcmansions are owned by foreign investors.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 4 months ago

I was writing a rant, but yeah, I'm tired of our industry being snapped up and run into the ground and important crown corps or public works being sold off for pennies.

We didn't get here overnight and we won't get out overnight either, there's definitely been some movement, lots of strategic plans and investments plus the technology superclusters are working to update our industry, just would like to see the needle move faster and like, more reporting and messaging on what's being done at each level of government because I don't feel like we're generally aware of that.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 4 months ago (3 children)

Extractive industry is heavily required if we're going to get off fossil fuels, we have tons of metals that are pretty damn important for building nuclear and various renewable energy sources.

But in the meantime, the world was clamouring for natural gas because of sudden restrictions due to the war in Ukraine and it was pants-on-head retarded to turn that down.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 4 months ago

Which is true, but the issue is that Canada didn't plan ahead like either Saudi Arabia or Norway and use our oil wealth for something useful.

We have away royalties and used the money for tax cuts and giveaways to the rich. Alberta in particular is guilty of being unable to plan for a rainy day.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 4 months ago (2 children)

Uhm, natural gas is not an alternative to oil. Has the same problems.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago)

They were saying we should have taken advantage of the short-term opportunity.

The problem is that Natural Gas is not portable and the plants required to ship it overseas take time and investment to build.

So, the situation was not so “pants on head” obvious really. That said, I agree with them that we should have done it. I say that as somebody that would like the fossil fuel industry to go away.

Canada would probably be a major LNG provider to Europe at this point if we had done it. However, they are trying to transition away from it as well so the clock is ticking. And, of course, if the war ends, some will go back to buying from Russia. So it was only ever a short-term opportunity for Canada ( though longer than many believed at the time ).

Natural Gas is still a fossil fuel so your main argument is correct. However, it is a lot better than oil or coal. It makes sense to move to natural gas over coal to generate electricity and the world is doing that. It also would have made sense to move vehicles, especially larger trucks, to Natural Gas. Even if the end-goal is electric, NG would have been a great first step ( especially in paces where the electricity is coal or natural gas anyway ).

[–] [email protected] 1 points 4 months ago (1 children)

Fossil fuels aren't a yes/no thing, we aren't getting off them cold turkey and neither is any other country. Part of the process is substituting higher emitting fossil fuels with lower emitting ones while we work towards the goal.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago)

For the 25½ years we have left? Better subsidize research on alternatives to plastic and kerosine. Oil getting more expensive in the process would even be helpful.

Should have, yes. But time is short now.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 4 months ago (2 children)

Extractive industry is heavily required if we're going to get off fossil fuels

Can you explain why? As in, why does Canada need so much mining when there are other wealthy nations that don’t focus so much on it?

Maybe all nations do, idk

[–] [email protected] 1 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago)

Every country is different, and they all have their economic strengths. Ours happens to be relatively environmentally conscious resource extraction, and if we stop then that just drives demand towards other regions where things aren't done to the same high standards.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 4 months ago (1 children)

Because we are the second largest country in the world and have vast amount of natural resources... why shouldn't we develop them?

All the materials being used by these tiny (geography-wise) European countries that many consider to be "better" than us certainly aren't coming from those countries... why shouldn't it come from us?

[–] [email protected] 1 points 4 months ago (1 children)

Shouldn’t that mean we are, economically, in a better position than those tiny European countries?

I’m not too savvy but I always thought Canada’s economy is worse than the average Western European country. Maybe that’s not true either.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 4 months ago (1 children)

We're worse off because we severely limit our development of our natural resources and a lot of what we do develop is exported in a fairly raw state (we don't do much value adding).

[–] [email protected] 0 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago)

"pipsqueak1984" -- guys I think I found Pierre.