this post was submitted on 12 Jul 2024
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[–] [email protected] 5 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) (2 children)

Does Biden have the best chance of beating Trump

The election is in ~3 months. Yes. Next question.

[–] Viking_Hippie 9 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) (1 children)

He's much more unpopular than any previous president that won reelection, he's literally unqualified for the job, he's in a weaker position than when he BARELY won the first time and he's refusing to change course on the main source of discontent, his active and ongoing participation in a genocide and other war crimes committed daily.

No.

Next question: Will he be replaced by one of the 50 other Democrats who could beat Donald Trump (by his own estimate) before it's too late?

I hope so, but probably not.

[–] Blackbeard 4 points 3 months ago (3 children)

he’s refusing to change course on the main source of discontent, his active and ongoing participation in a genocide and other war crimes committed daily.

Voters simply don't care about Gaza anywhere near as much as they care about literally everything else:

https://iop.harvard.edu/sites/default/files/2024-04/240415_Harvard_IOP_Spring_2024_Topline_Final.pdf

https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/24564257/240126-nbc-april-2024-poll-4-21-2024-release.pdf

https://news.gallup.com/poll/644570/immigration-named-top-problem-third-straight-month.aspx

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/most-americans-disapprove-biden-handling-israel-hamas-war-poll-2023-12-10/

It shows up in poll after poll after poll. With the exception of chronically online lemmings and less than 10% of Democratic voters, nobody else really cares.

[–] Viking_Hippie 2 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) (1 children)

Voters simply don't care about Gaza anywhere near as much as they care about literally everything else

Well that's a damning indictment of the American people if I ever saw one!

With the exception of chronically online lemmings and less than 10% of Democratic voters, nobody else really cares.

Yeah, it's just the systematic slaughter of mostly defenseless civilians, specifically targeting aid workers, health workers and journalists, and also tens of thousands of children!

Just flagrant daily crimes against humanity, nothing you'd care about if you weren't a chronically online Lemming! /s

You're very much on the wrong side of history if you are indifferent to the many war crimes of Israel as well as the contributions of the US and other Western countries making it possible for them to continue in perpetuity.

[–] Blackbeard 1 points 3 months ago (1 children)

Yeah none of that changes the fact that voters don't care. Sorry people have different priorities than you, it seems like it really bothers you.

[–] Viking_Hippie 0 points 3 months ago (1 children)

Yeah, it actually DOES bother me that some people don't care about constant atrocities committed on helpless innocents. I'm kooky like that!

I wouldn't think that Donald Trump levels of casual indifference towards the mass murder and systemic torture of fellow human beings would be the norm amongst Democratic voters, but I guess it either is or there's something wrong with the methodology of the statistics you so gleefully present as redemptive of your Dear Leader..

[–] Blackbeard 3 points 3 months ago (1 children)

Feel free to point out repeated, systemic flaws that might lead to that kind of consistent result. If not, I'll just assume it's because you simply can't wrap your mind around the fact that voters have different priorities than you. Truth hurts.

[–] Viking_Hippie -1 points 3 months ago (1 children)

There's different priorities and then there's a near-total disregard for the lives and well-being of fellow humans.

There's disagreement on whether economic or social issues are more important. Whether foreign policy is important or only domestic issues really matter. Tons of room for legitimate disagreement there.

And then there's being indifferent to some of the worst atrocities humans have ever submitted other humans to being perpetrated in your name using weapons paid for by your tax dollars and political cover by the politicians you have chosen to represent you.

If that doesn't bother you, WHAT fucking does?

[–] Blackbeard 0 points 3 months ago (1 children)

I've never said what does and doesn't bother me. This conversation isn't about me at all. It's about voters, and about the fact that you mischaracterized their "main source of discontent". I showed evidence that it is, in fact, not their main source of discontent. It barely even registers, your personal outrage notwithstanding.

Voters do not care. Full stop. There are a number of likely reasons for that, but it's not terribly complicated.

[–] Viking_Hippie -1 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) (1 children)

Voters do not care. Full stop.

Yeah, I often protest in the streets and on campuses, risking arrest or much worse from cops and Zionist agitators based on "not caring" 🙄

I'm not a statistician, so I'm gonna let someone else locate the smoking gun, but those statistics CANNOT reflect actual reality. Especially since at least the first one suggests that people aren't really That worried about CLIMATE CHANGE either.

I'm thinking maybe sampling bias or asking the questions in Norwegian? 🤔

[–] Blackbeard 3 points 3 months ago (1 children)

I linked the polls directly. Feel free to check the language of the questions out yourself. Looks like English to me.

[–] Viking_Hippie -1 points 3 months ago (1 children)

Sure, it LOOKS like English, but they didn't write the questions phonetically, so some of them might be asked with a Norwegian accent so impenetrable as to be incomprehensible!

[–] Blackbeard 2 points 3 months ago (1 children)
[–] Viking_Hippie -1 points 3 months ago (1 children)

They don't even care whether or not they understand the questions now?

Sounds like a highly unlikely electorate 🤔

[–] Blackbeard 2 points 3 months ago (1 children)

Voters don't care about Gaza. Whatever weird "last word" game you're playing now doesn't detract from that. Sorry the truth makes you uncomfortable.

[–] Viking_Hippie -1 points 3 months ago (1 children)

Voters don't care about Gaza

It seems very important for you to repeat that statistical error again and again. Methinks you're a Zionist Biden apologist and just trying to checks notes make Biden look good by making the population of the United States look horrible.

Whatever weird "last word" game you're playing

I'd accuse you of the same, but I'm pretty sure that repeating yourself doesn't count 🤷

Sorry the truth makes you uncomfortable.

1: No, you're obviously not the least bit sorry

2: no matter how many cherry picked pieces of faulty data you pull out of your ass, it's by definition not true that voters that risk their lives for a cause don't care about that cause.

If I'm right about you being a Zionist, you obviously value non-Israeli human lives very little, but the rest of us actually tend to find them precious enough that we generally don't waste them if we can avoid it

3: only thing making me uncomfortable is your seemingly total lack of regard for humans that are inconvenient to your Dear Leader and/or your favorite fascist apartheid regime 🤷

[–] Blackbeard 0 points 3 months ago (1 children)

I provided the polling evidence in black and white. You're flat wrong, and a vast majority of voters don't obsess over the things that keep you awake at night. They have other priorities, and the people who do care enough to protest are in a significant (albeit disproportionately loud) minority. It's strange how difficult it is for you to accept that very simple fact.

[–] Viking_Hippie 0 points 3 months ago

I provided ~~the~~ nonrepresentational if not downright faulty polling ~~evidence in black and white~~

Fixed it for you.

You're flat wrong

Nope.

a vast majority of voters don't obsess over

First they didn't care, now they do, just not to the point of obsession? Yay, redemption arc!

the things that keep you awake at night

Actually, people DO tend to care about rumination and the wrong temperature in the bedroom!

I like it cool, see, and that can be difficult in the summer..

the people who do care enough to protest are in a significant (albeit disproportionately loud) minority

That's what they said about the students protesting the FIRST Apartheid regime, the ones protesting against the Vietnam war, and the ones protesting for civil rights with MLK and Malcolm X.

Funny how the students were on the right side of history and inspired significant change in spite of the resistance of naysayers like you, who will later pretend that they were on the right side of history the whole time.. Just like when your Dear Leader opposed desegregation bussing because he "didn't want his children to grow up in a racial jungle"..

It's strange how difficult it is for you to accept that very simple fact.

I understand that very simple lie just fine. What's strange is how important it is for you to pretend that Americans don't care about the victims of the genocide in Gaza.

Why IS it so important to you, I wonder.. Are you one of IDF's mass murderers for hire? Maybe even one of the people in charge of the murdering? Both? 🤔

[–] AbidanYre 2 points 3 months ago

Even for the folks who are outraged by what's happening in Gaza, letting trump win isn't going to make the situation any better, and will likely make it significantly worse.

[–] OccamsTeapot 1 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) (1 children)

How big were the win margins in 2020 again?

[–] Blackbeard 1 points 3 months ago (2 children)

How is that in any way relevant to my correction about "the main source of discontent"?

[–] [email protected] 1 points 3 months ago (1 children)

The Democrats can't afford to lose even half of that 10%.

[–] Blackbeard 3 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) (1 children)

I didn't say they could. I was correcting someone who indicated Gaza is "the main source of discontent" among voters, when in fact polling shows it is not. I didn't say literally anything about the election or who's likely to win, or what that discontent might mean in the future.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) (1 children)

You asked how the electoral margins were relevant to the topic. I just answered your question.

Quibble about which issue is more important all you want, the DNC is already underwater on voter enthusiasm regardless.

[–] Blackbeard 1 points 3 months ago (1 children)

I'm not "quibbling". I'm pointing to polling evidence that directly contradicts a claim the other user made. I didn't say a damn thing about the DNC, or voter enthusiasm, or electoral prospects, or any of that information. I literally just showed polls of priority issues for relative importance. That's the end of my point, so please don't respond to an argument I didn't make.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 3 months ago (1 children)

Your disagreement was not one of kind, but of scale. You're choosing to focus on polls of issue priority as if that matters when we both agree that the party can't afford to lose any support regardless of the issue.

[–] Blackbeard 2 points 3 months ago (1 children)

I didn't say anything about whether the party can or cannot afford to lose support.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 3 months ago
[–] OccamsTeapot 1 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) (1 children)

You said this:

Voters simply don't care about Gaza anywhere near as much as they care about literally everything else:

[Links]

It shows up in poll after poll after poll. With the exception of chronically online lemmings and less than 10% of Democratic voters, nobody else really cares.

[–] Blackbeard 2 points 3 months ago (1 children)

Yes I did. Your powers of observation are uncanny.

So again, what does the 2020 margin of victory have to do with the purported "main source of discontent" among voters, which isn't borne out by polling data?

[–] OccamsTeapot 0 points 3 months ago (1 children)

I didn't say it was the main source of discontent. I just think that being able to win the election is the most important thing. It doesn't have to be the "main" source to cause the problem we're all talking about.

[–] Blackbeard 4 points 3 months ago (1 children)

I didn't say you did. I corrected someone else, and you responded to me. So again, how is your response relevant to me correcting someone else's factual inaccuracy?

[–] OccamsTeapot 0 points 3 months ago (1 children)

I obviously mistook this as a conversation about the upcoming election and Biden's chances, but I can see now that you are purely interested in correcting someone about this one thing, and not about whether or not that has an important impact on Biden's chances.

Yes wow you're right it isn't the "main" source of the discontent. Congratulations.

[–] Blackbeard 4 points 3 months ago (1 children)

Yes, I corrected someone's factual inaccuracy. If you want to respond to things that other people are currently talking about, be my guest.

[–] OccamsTeapot -2 points 3 months ago (1 children)

I was talking about the thing the person you responded to was talking about.

Anyway, this was oddly hostile so I'm out.

[–] Blackbeard 3 points 3 months ago (1 children)

Then respond to them, not me.

[–] OccamsTeapot -1 points 3 months ago (1 children)

I was responding to what you said about what they said. This is generally how conversations go

[–] Blackbeard 2 points 3 months ago (1 children)

You didn't respond to what I said though. You responded, yes, but it had nothing to do with what I said or the point I was making or responding to.

[–] OccamsTeapot -1 points 3 months ago (1 children)

Never mind dude, there is a link, but I've already tried to explain it. You were correct in your comment, which I think is all you're bothered about.

[–] Blackbeard 3 points 3 months ago

That's quite literally all I was trying to say, so yes.

[–] [email protected] 8 points 3 months ago

Did you not pay attention to Frances election? Much shorter with much better outcomes. Maybe the year long election cycle is the problem driving turnout down in the US, which benefits republicans.