this post was submitted on 28 Feb 2025
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[–] [email protected] 9 points 1 day ago (1 children)

It's worth noting that there just isn't enough supply that's actually in play in the market to rent or buy. Housing has two levels of demand because shelter is a need: there's the inelastic demand (I need shelter and I'll pay almost any price to make sure I have it) and elastic demand (I want to buy a house as an investment or a vacation property). This bubble isn't going to pop because it's not a true bubble; the supply of housing is below the need for housing that manifests as demand (the inelastic demand), which has sent the price skyrocketing because you've got people trying to satisfy a very deep inelastic demand with very shallow inelastic supply. That's had the knock-on effect of making it so that now the people just trying to find shelter are directly competing against people trying to find investments, and while the investors almost always have more money than you do, it also means that the price ceiling (the absolute maximum anyone is willing to pay for that property) gets raised even higher.

The reason why we got here, why the supply got so low on the first place, is because we basically stopped building houses after 2006. Even when we did start building houses again, I think the rate at which we're building them never fully recovered. There's a few other problems I'd be happy to get into, but here's the gist: the only housing really getting built without federal grant money is single family homes. We are NEVER going to solve the housing crisis by building not quite enough single family homes year over year. It just takes too much time and money to build too little capacity. So, what can you do about it?

Well, there's great news. If you live in a city or even a modest size town, and most people do, there's a really good chance you have a city council that meets regularly. This council has A LOT of control over what gets built in your city or town! In fact, they can control the zoning, and if your city is like mine, it's probably 90% exclusionary low-density single family home zoning by surface area, and probably has outrageous parking minimums that all but guarantee both a housing supply shortage and a lack of services (groceries, small cafes, etc) in those neighborhoods (which also raises your cost of living because now you NEED a car). They always have a public comment period so that people can raise issues that they feel are important.

Go to these council meetings and tell at them about how there isn't enough housing being built. They will cry about how they can't control the free market, but they can and do via zoning codes. If you keep the pressure up over time, you can make progress. If you meet other like-minded people there and network with them, you can make progress. You can get out there and make this change, it is within your reach.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 1 day ago

Like 10% of all housing sits vacant, the lack of supply in the market is not just a lack of units, it's also a strategy by investors to keep prices high.

[–] [email protected] 15 points 1 day ago (1 children)

According to the convincing argument by Gary Stevenson, so long as wealth inequality persists, assets are going to just get more expensive.

https://youtu.be/MSdhijZ7Uz4

It's not collapsing, Jack.

[–] UnderpantsWeevil 5 points 1 day ago

Going from 100 middle class people buying and selling 100 homes amongst each other to 2 extremely wealthy people 100 homes amongst each other and 98 people renting. The rich guys will price the assets out of reach of everyone else and make up the difference in rental profits.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 1 day ago (1 children)

I'd love to buy your condos - but if we look at renting versus buying... It's cheaper to rent versus buy until mortgage rates drop below 6%. We'll just be sitting here adding to the mortgage payment pile until then.

A house is laughably out of reach.

[–] Alteon 1 points 1 day ago

Your mortgage payment can often be cheaper than your rent payments. If your waiting until the rates drop, you'll be in an insane amount of competition to get a property.

If you buy now, you can then refinance at a later date and get literally $100k's off your mortgage. The downside is that your gambling on interest rates dropping.

[–] [email protected] 73 points 2 days ago (2 children)

As a millennial that was somehow able to afford a house this bubble needs to fucking pop.

I'll be locked into this house until I die and all of my friends and family will have to keep moving further away as they get priced out of their apartments each year. Before this I had moved 8 times in 6 years.

[–] [email protected] 7 points 1 day ago

I bought mine during the housing crash in 2008. Shit was ballin. No way I could afford a house now.

[–] MrQuallzin 14 points 1 day ago (4 children)

Also a millennial. Wife and I got our condo right before everything shot up, got a nice 3.25% APR. Great mortgage honestly. But we've been trying to sell our condo for a YEAR now and I honestly think it's the bubble holding back a sale. The condo is just too expensive for what it is (and the horrific rise of small community HOA fees has gotten way out of hand...). We're priced right compared to others on the market, but selling condos is just stupid hard right now.

Sure I'd love it if we could sell now and get some nice profits from the sale, but I absolutely agree this bubble needs to pop!

[–] [email protected] 12 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (5 children)

Complains that bubble needs to pop. Is trying to sell a condo but has it priced too high to attract any buyers. Doesn't lower price.

My dude, your desire for more money is the bubble that's holding back the sale.

Your scenario is a microcosm of the whole market.

[–] [email protected] 12 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (1 children)

I'm assuming they're looking to buy after this condo sale. If that's the case, they may not have much choice as their next place will be similarly insanely inflated, so they need that money to get the monthly payment to something affordable.

That's the position my partner and I are in. We have equity in our house, but it's mostly because it has "appreciated" to a level that we could never afford, despite making a combined over quarter million dollars a year (due to living in a high cost of living area). Even if we sold our house at full inflated market price and used it all as a down payment, we'd be hard pressed to afford a place with the same price.

It's not that I'm complaining about the equity, it just doesn't get me much when everything else is insanely inflated. We barely squeaked into the place we're in because COVID tanked interest rates and prices in our area.

[–] MrQuallzin 3 points 1 day ago

Yup, once we sell we won't even be able to buy in the local area near our families. Mortgage rates are still stupid, we'd never be able to afford having an actual house here

[–] chknbwl 7 points 1 day ago (1 children)

I'll never understand people like this. Most of us will never own a home at this rate. Yet there are folks, who already own their home, who are complaining they can't switch their home like it's some trading-card game. They're part of the problem.

[–] MrQuallzin 4 points 1 day ago (4 children)

Yup, I'm a total cocroach and the scum of society for wanting to have somewhere that me and my pregnant wife can live with room to grow with the little one.

I suppose we should decide to not sell and instead rent it out at extreme rates? Or perhaps raise a child in a place who would never have a room of their own?

I fully acknowledge that I'm privileged to have gotten a decent job and we happened to be in the right place at the right time, but comparing a single family trying to better their circumstances to the oligarchs and international entities who hoard land and homes for profit is a shit thing to do.

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[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 day ago

I would argue that someone can't sacrifice their future ability to buy just to lower the price on a single unit.

They're stuck by the incentives of the situation just like everyone else.

We can't expect anyone to act outside their own good when it comes to huge amounts of money. Especially in a capitalist society where the only thing that protects your quality of life is money. No one is going to step in when things go wrong except your decision to protect yourself and your family by making financially beneficial decisions.

And yeah, that sucks when you are the other major portion of our society who isn't given the resources to grab that protection/money with both hands and not let go.

And on a more solution oriented note:

  1. We need increased supply of dense housing appropriate for the average family, for the 20-30 yr olds who simply need a single bedroom, and for the retirees who need a small place to live after their children move out. Dense housing because driving an hour to where your job is makes sense to only a very small fraction of people and cities are continuing to attract people.
  2. Increased pay for the average worker - probably requiring a decreased incentive to drive profits above all else for the large corporations that drive the majority of our market. (Thinking of examples like Walmart that pay minimum wage and then require their workers to receive government subsidies... meanwhile Walmart gets a profit. It's a little circular.)
  3. Kindness so we can all share our stories and think of solutions that change the structure and don't require individuals to act outside their own interest. If we shut down conversation we're no better than our silly two party system that seems to make enemies out of each other. Listen and sympathise and learn what each person has been able to build. Don't be each other's enemies. That's letting the system we're in win.
[–] thejoker954 2 points 1 day ago (1 children)
[–] MrQuallzin 1 points 1 day ago (1 children)
[–] thejoker954 2 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Only a small subset of folks want to live in a condo.

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[–] MrQuallzin 1 points 1 day ago (1 children)

We're the lowest priced among the competition. I don't care about "more money", but my family is starting to grow so we need to be somewhere other than a tiny condo and I can't do that selling at a loss

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Will anyone buy it at the current price? No? Then I'm sorry to say but you have not yet reached the market clearing price.

[–] MrQuallzin 1 points 1 day ago

Yes actually. Almost everyone who's toured in person has said the price is the right for the market, but they're generally not finding specific things they're looking for. We're a backup for one person right now, and the things turning people away are out of our control (HOA prices, neighbor to a public service). Couple people went for other properties due to the lack of AC in ours (Would cost $14,000 for a mini-split, so not cost effective while selling) and it's totally understandable.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 day ago

I would love to buy a condo right now, but rent is cheaper than buying looking at a 5 year time frame until mortgage rates drop below at least 6%. It would be years before the interest and taxes portion of the payment dropped below our current rent.

We've literally agreed with our landlords who want to sell after we leave that we're all sitting still until mortgage rates drop. (Or I guess inflation rises high enough to offset the debt versus investment part of the pile.)

And this is all after moving to Utah from the west coast to get cheaper housing in general... Although the lower paychecks basically balance it all out 😂

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[–] moakley 5 points 1 day ago

As a Millennial, I'm confused why you wouldn't use the correct White Ninja meme on the left.

[–] Thteven 50 points 2 days ago (2 children)

I see, so we must collapse Blackrock first.

[–] [email protected] 8 points 1 day ago

Just know that black rock has 9% or higher controlling share in almost all companies and they colluded with vanguard and another company I don't remember and all those 3 companies have 9% controlling shares in each others so they all 3 vote same in almost every thing

[–] [email protected] 43 points 1 day ago (3 children)
[–] xektop 11 points 1 day ago (1 children)

They are the most well known private equity firm, but when I learned they are in the 40th place of how many assets they own and manage I was flabbergasted... Worth giving in some more time to understand what happened to the financial world in the past 25-30 years. https://www.visualcapitalist.com/worlds-50-largest-private-equity-firms/ . Personally I can't wrap my head around how much money this ultra rich club has.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 day ago

Blackstone is not BlackRock, but yes they are also scary. 📺 So does private equity own everything?

[–] UnderpantsWeevil 3 points 1 day ago

This is Berkshire Hathaway Erasure.

[–] [email protected] 19 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Wait, they own the equivalent of 1/3 US yearly GDP?

[–] [email protected] 41 points 1 day ago (2 children)

Not only do BlackRock, Vanguard, and State Street own everything, they also own shares in each other. Antitrust is dead; it’s basically one big monopoly. These three firms own corporate America

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 day ago (1 children)

They own most of these shares via their index funds, which do not give them controlling power on the companies

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 day ago

Those shares are generally voting shares, giving them enormous power.

[–] [email protected] 11 points 1 day ago

Very cool article!

[–] [email protected] 5 points 1 day ago

Isn't it Blackstone and not blackrock that buys homes (and not that many)?

https://youtube.com/watch?v=Q6pu9Ixqqxo

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

In Germany real estate became significantly cheaper in many parts (not all, not e.g. Berlin or Hamburg). In my north German mid size city we had ~15 percent price reduction in the last 2 years. In our neighbour city they even had 25%.

On the other hand, I know people who sold their houses when prices where high, invested their money and are happy renters now. It apparently can be a lot better financially according to many experts (here in Germany, no idea about the US).

[–] SpruceBringsteen 30 points 2 days ago (7 children)

What impact would a nationwide guerilla campaign of vandalism against say, Berkshire do?

[–] [email protected] 19 points 2 days ago

I think we need more than vandalism. But it couldn't hurt. Where's Mario?

[–] [email protected] 11 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (2 children)

Why stop at Berkshire? Vandalize any home that sits vacant. We have more vacant homes than homeless in America. We just need to make vacant homes too big of a risk

[–] [email protected] 10 points 1 day ago (2 children)

No no no open the house to people that need to crash with a roof over their head. Squatting is the answer. Maybe eve some destructive squatting.

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[–] [email protected] 24 points 2 days ago (1 children)

No, but they can remain solvent longer than you can survive on the streets.

And that's how they get you.

[–] [email protected] 18 points 2 days ago (1 children)

they have enough money to remain solvent for generations.

[–] [email protected] 12 points 1 day ago

and they're using our retirement money to do it

[–] [email protected] 14 points 1 day ago

What if they start a huge fire and burnt down a ton of houses if they couldn't hold out anymore?

How Britain almost solved the housing crisis

[–] Sgt_choke_n_stroke 14 points 2 days ago

Or luigi blackrock

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