this post was submitted on 23 Dec 2024
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cross-posted from: https://lemm.ee/post/50512886

top 15 comments
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[–] Diplomjodler3 9 points 4 hours ago

So that's right up the alley of the incoming administration then?

[–] just_another_person 26 points 10 hours ago* (last edited 9 hours ago) (3 children)

It's pretty spot on. It takes years to get a fab up to speed, and they've been stealing US IP shipped over there for manufacturing for over a decade. They'll try to annex Taiwan, and the US will be fucked. Jokes on them though, because TSMC has remote self destructive capabilities for their operations.

[–] CosmoNova 4 points 4 hours ago (1 children)

China will not invade Taiwan. They might try to invade a country like the Philippines, almost crash the world economy but more than anything their own country in the process and realize Taiwan is completely out of reach.

[–] Dead_or_Alive 6 points 3 hours ago

China has terrible demographics, a real estate mark that is in free fall, high debt, is the target of tariffs in every major economy and a domestic market that can’t consume what they produce.

Economically they are fucked unless the US and EU throw them a life line and allow them to dump products in their market again… which is not going to happen no matter which party is in control. The best they can hope for at this point is a Japanese style lost decade. But I doubt they can manage even that outcome.

Bottom line is the CCP will do whatever is in the best interest of the CCP staying in control of China. Even if that decision is terrible for China itself.

If they are backed into a corner it doesn’t matter that Taiwan is out of reach. All that matters is that the CCP stays in control.

That is what makes this next ten years very dangerous.

[–] [email protected] 16 points 10 hours ago

It’s like a nonviolent alternative to nuclear war. Mutually assured destruction of bleeding edge technologies instead of death.

[–] einlander 17 points 10 hours ago (1 children)

China has their in-house Longson chip and can use Risc-v. This has the potential of accelerating a switch from x86/arm to more open standards.

[–] [email protected] 22 points 10 hours ago* (last edited 10 hours ago)

China's biggest hurdle is not the ability to make a chip, but more the ability to get good yields. It's more or less running into the same problem Intel did with 10nm, and what samsung has and the main reason why basically every chip maker is behind tsmc on bleeding edge.

This has the potential of accelerating a switch from x86/arm to more open standards.

hardware is a two way street, the other is getting a proper OS environment and people to be behind said projects. It's not like RISC-V designs aren't currently available.For example, Pine64's risc-v options have been available in the market for quite some time now. And DeepComputing is trying to release its framework laptop equivalent board using a StarFive JH7110. It will only accelerate if there is a bodies available to create the ecosystem in it, and as of the moment, not many developers are putting effort into making it an ecosystem.

An example of why hardware/software need to coexist is Snapdragon X Elite on Linux, as well as Asahi Linux(Arm based Macs on Linux). Neither are complete projects and do not hit the same performance their native OS versions hit yet remotely(nor efficiency). Theres a LOT you have to do to optimize hardware to the OS, and that just doesn't happen instantly.