this post was submitted on 23 Dec 2024
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It's pretty spot on. It takes years to get a fab up to speed, and they've been stealing US IP shipped over there for manufacturing for over a decade. They'll try to annex Taiwan, and the US will be fucked. Jokes on them though, because TSMC has remote self destructive capabilities for their operations.
China will not invade Taiwan. They might try to invade a country like the Philippines, almost crash the world economy but more than anything their own country in the process and realize Taiwan is completely out of reach.
China has terrible demographics, a real estate mark that is in free fall, high debt, is the target of tariffs in every major economy and a domestic market that can’t consume what they produce.
Economically they are fucked unless the US and EU throw them a life line and allow them to dump products in their market again… which is not going to happen no matter which party is in control. The best they can hope for at this point is a Japanese style lost decade. But I doubt they can manage even that outcome.
Bottom line is the CCP will do whatever is in the best interest of the CCP staying in control of China. Even if that decision is terrible for China itself.
If they are backed into a corner it doesn’t matter that Taiwan is out of reach. All that matters is that the CCP stays in control.
That is what makes this next ten years very dangerous.
TSMC won’t destroy itself. If the US destroys TSMC on its way out, that will crush the global economy.
Man, I love how people give no agency to companies like this. Mainly because it shows they're entirely ignorant of the state of the world outside of their very limited knowledge and incorrect beliefs about it.
It's a no-win for them.
They lose the war and pull the trigger, and everyone from the janitor on up is prosecuted by the PRC as saboteurs.
They win the war and have blown up the factory? Goodbye #1 export product.
Its only value is as a hindrance to peaceful negotiation. The threat is actually more useful as a "we'll pull the plug if you abandon your defence commitments" rather than "we'll pull the plug when attacked". That bludgeon prevents Western powers from seeking a managed, Hong Kong/Macao sryle reunification strategy.
Or the US simply uses several Ohio-class submarines to glass the factories. Hooyah Navy. Hopefully take out as much of the PLA as possible along the way. Let them try ruling over a pile of dust and ash.
Wow, you're either not very smart, or are not aware of the state of the world.
https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/tsmcs-euv-machines-are-equipped-with-a-remote-self-destruct-in-case-of-an-invasion
Thanks for sharing this link, and I wonder if you could be nicer in your replies in the future
This is extremely funny and cartoonish. No one would benefit from this. As I said, the whole world would suffer.
Also, TSMC exists to make money. The Chinese government has overseen the largest economic growth of this century and would change little about the company’s daily operations.
The people who want this outcome of TSMC being destroyed are not Chinese or Taiwanese, they’re American. Like I said, it would be the Americans ordering the destruction of TSMC during reunification, as it was likely their idea to create these self-destruct mechanisms in the first place. Some ally we Americans would be if on our way out we crippled Taiwanese industry and sabotaged the world economy.
You do realize, don't you, that the majority of Taiwanese do not want reunification? Well, I mean, they want reunification with their party in power and don't want CCP-controlled reunification.
In one poll, 63% said they would personally fight if China tried to force reunification. In another poll, the VAST majority wanted to maintain the status quo. Some of those want to keep the status quo and decide later, some want to keep it forever, some want to keep it but start moving toward independence. In that poll, only around 2% want reunification now, and only 5% want full independence now. In another poll, 49% wanted full independence and 27% wanted status quo, while only 12% wanted reunification.
What the taiwanese want is sovereignty.
The threat of blowing up TSMC if invaded helps with their sovereignty because it both avoids the Chinese attacking them and helps the Americans defend them.
Well, not "crush", but I suppose the "AI" hype and that of cryptocurrencies will stop to think for 5 years or so.
I'm looking forward to this. Some incentive for developers to stop expecting faster machines every month is welcome.