Apparently, there was only so much IP to steal
this post was submitted on 13 Nov 2024
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I hope it all burns.
It'll implode but there are much larger elephants in the room - geopolitical dumbassery and the suddenly transient nature of the CHIPS Act are two biggies.
Third, high flying growth, blue sky darlings, they're flaky. In a downturn growth is worth 0 fucking dollars, throw that shit in a dumpster and rotate into staples. People can push off a phone upgrade or new TV and cut down on subscriptions, but they'll always need Pampers.
The thing propping up AI and semis is an arms race between those high flying tech companies, so this whole thing is even more prone to imploding than tech itself, since a ton of revenue comes from tech. Sensitive sector supported by an already sensitive sector. House of cards with NVDA sitting right at the tippy top. Apple, Facebook, those kinds of companies, when they start trimming back it's over.
But, it's one of those things that is anyone's guess. When you think it's not even possible for everything to still have steam one of the big guys like TSMC posts some really delightful earnings and it gets another second wind, for the 29th time.
Definitely a house of cards tho, and suddenly a lot more precarious because suddenly nobody knows how policy will affect the industry or the market as a whole
They say shipping is the bellwhether of the economy and there's a lot of truth to that. I think semis are now the bellwhether of growth. Sit back and watch the change in the wind
nvidia at least sells shovels, they already made some real profit unlike openai
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Nice, looking forward to it! So much money and time wasted on pipe dreams and hype. We need to get back to some actually useful innovation.
Fingers crossed.
Seems to me the rationale is flawed. Even if it isn't strong or general AI, LLM based AI has found a lot of uses. I also don't recognize the claimed ignorance among people working with it, about the limitations of current AI models.
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The tech priests of Mars were right; death to abominable intelligence.
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Sigh I hope LLMs get dropped from the AI bandwagon because I do think they have some really cool use cases and love just running my little local models. Cut government spending like a madman, write the next great American novel, or eliminate actual jobs are not those use cases.
Yay
Theres no bracing for this, OpenAI CEO said the same thing like a year ago and people are still shovelling money at this dumpster fire today.
Oh nice, another Gary Marcus "AI hitting a wall post."
Like his "Deep Learning Is Hitting a Wall" post on March 10th, 2022.
Indeed, not much has changed in the world of deep learning between spring 2022 and now.
No new model releases.
No leaps beyond what was expected.
\s
Gary Marcus is like a reverse Cassandra.
Consistently wrong, and yet regularly listened to, amplified, and believed.