Better not invade Taiwan as it will go the same way as Ukraine
this post was submitted on 19 Aug 2024
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China is one hell of a lot more competent than Russia
I think the main saving grace is that whatever posturing individual people want to do, China has a good thing going on with trade with the West which no one involved on either side wants to fuck up.
China is one hell of a lot more competent than Russia
We have no real idea whether this is actually true on a military level as their military is even less tested in real world conditions than the Russians were. Even if they are, an amphibious assault on an island with the potential of the world's most powerful navy in the way is a lot more difficult to pull off than a land invasion.
An analyst outlined that there likely wouldn't be an amphibious assault. That more likely they would first try to take over key airports and seaports with special forces. The waters on the strait are too treacherous and unpredictable for an amphibious assault and you would also have to account for where they would be landing
They'll activate their fifth columnists first
Sure, but Taiwan is also a lot more prepared than Ukraine, is an island, and has the promised backing of the US, who has ships in the area. Oh, and F-35s.
The US is the trump card here. I highly doubt China will start anything if MAD is involved.
Oh come off it. I know you really don't believe that a standard US administration would launch a nuclear first strike in defense of Taiwan.
China is not the USSR, and the possibility of war between the powers has not historically been thought of in the same context as the Cold War USA vs USSR WWIII Nuclear Bonanza.
Not right off the bat, but I could believe they'd respond conventionally, and then it's a bit of a slippery slope, isn't it?
I mean, it's possible the two could wage some sort of polite "flower war" over Taiwan, but I don't know for sure and don't want to find out. I'd assume neither does China, regardless of revanchist butthurt.
You're right that it's not the Cuban Missile Crisis anymore, but that's exactly because now everyone is afraid of nukes in a way they hadn't really grokked in that era. Very much including China, as far as anyone can tell.
It's not a slippery slope, it's called an escalation ladder.
Again, you need to stop thinking of this in the historical context of the Cold War and USSR vs USA. Well there are similarities, it is a very different situation for any number of reasons.
It’s not a slippery slope, it’s called an escalation ladder.
And it's spelled "while" not "well". There, we're even.
I'm well aware of the vocabulary. Trying to make me look dumb over choice of phrasing is kinda a dick move.
Again, you need to stop thinking of this in the historical context of the Cold War and USSR vs USA. Well there are similarities, it is a very different situation for any number of reasons.
It is a very different situation in some ways, but I think the same military logic applies. When the US says "competition not conflict" what they mean is "let's have a Cold War, but a polite, orderly one". China is building missile silos like crazy, and the West is gradually severing off themselves from the Chinese economy.
I used text to speech and didn't proofread because that's all this little dialogue warranted. You got me.
More prepared, yes, but a lot smaller. A saturation attack is going to do significantly more damage because of the higher density of critical targets and infrastructure. But unlike a CBG, they can't withdraw out of range while they wait for resupply.
honestly though tsmc is likely much more valuable to western nations than ukraine, China might be competent but there's going to be a lot more western money for their defence
See, this is an interesting question. Are they?
They certainly succeed in giving off that vibe. They seemingly have seen a lot of economic growth while Russia stagnated. I would probably guess that they are, indeed, more competent.
But, they're an even bigger unknown than Russia. They're notoriously opaque and at least sometimes cook the books when showing the outside world their economy growth, or stuff like their rate of fatalities during COVID.
They seem to have a much bigger GDP and a much more loyal citizenship than Russia. We think their technology is better than Russia's, but not as good as ours.
But, we won't really know if they are a paper tiger until we see them in a real conflict. They could, with the advantage of proximity, be unassailable by the west if they invade Taiwan. Or we might see themselves completely blunder trying to stop a rebellion in a small country. I don't think anybody guessed Ukraine would hold up like they have, even with western supply lines.
Idk man. I lived there for 4 years. Competent is not the word I would use to describe that place
I've lived in America for over 30 years and I wouldn't use competent to describe us either
Fair enough.
Assuming the actors are rational
Don't worry, nations of the world and everyone involved even low level military people are always perfectly sensible
What's the worst that could happen
McDonald’s politics
Isn't that the carrier they were using as a theme park
Oh, not the one...hoping...three gorges....
I remember these kinds of posts on the buildup to the invasion of Afghanistan