this post was submitted on 24 Jun 2024
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UK Politics

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This is opinion. So read it as such. But consider it please.

Obviously if you read this based on the title. I assume you oppose the Tories.

But if you are wondering why labour are so keen to manage expectations. There is a reason.

Campaign funding wise the Tories are estimated to be 19m ahead of labour. But honestly at the moment they are not spending a huge amount more.

We know the Tories are skilled at election manipulation. So there is genuine fear that the Tories plan to launch a campaign within the last few days.

I.E. when there is less time and funding to ensure fact checking is effective.

They know Starmer is more publicity aware then Corbyn was. He is able to play it in a way that dose not scare traditional Conservative voters.

They also know thanks to Boris, that the courts are unable to punish them for outright lies during any political campaign. And that Rishi is prepared to lie about and accuse civil servants of lying when challenged.

As huge as polling is against the Tories. All it would take is some dramatic claim against the party or Starmer. To convince Tory traditional voters to bite their tongue and vote Tory. While convincing left wing voters not to vote or to switch to 3rd party in seats where labour are the 1st or 2nd party.

The fact we know they have a huge amount of money unspent. Makes it clear they plan to launch something nearer the end of the election. And the only advantage of leaving it so late. Is it will limit the ability of the party to effectively react. Or fact checkers to be able to prove and distribute evidence of lies.

Please be prepared for this.

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[–] [email protected] 25 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago) (8 children)

Everyone, just please go and vote if you are able to. It's very little time out of your day and it's only once every few years. Remember that you do need photo ID this time

If you are interested in tactical voting, something our electoral system unfortunately incentivises, then there is https://stopthetories.vote/ to vote against the Conservatives

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[–] [email protected] 15 points 4 months ago (1 children)

Some of the voters are a bit scary too. I keep hearing a clip from LBC where some asks Starmer if he would've been in Corbyn's cabinet.

Starmer kicked Corbyn out. That's years ago. Why are you still trying to link the two people still now.

Finally, who are the 20% that would still vote Tory? Rich business people with no ethics?

[–] [email protected] 8 points 4 months ago

Why are you still trying to link the two people still now.

Because that is where the Tories are likely spending some money. They keep bringing up the he supported Corbyn. They and the right wing of labour spent in the last election to destroy his reputation. So the Tory party sees it as a cheap attack to push the idea over social media.

I am a little disappointed that it is not answered with, how Rishi was willing to support a PM candidate with a racist publications in the media and later willing to lie to parliament to prevent their ability to shut down his policies.

[–] [email protected] 10 points 4 months ago (3 children)

It's just getting more and more difficult to feel okay voting Labour. I know splitting the left wing vote isn't tactically smart, but voting for labour isn't even a left wing vote anymore :(

(I'm still pro-tactical voting, I'm just doing it with more frustration than ever before)

[–] [email protected] 18 points 4 months ago (2 children)

There will literally be Tory trolls/bots pushing this narrative to split the Labour vote. Get the Tories out, then push Labour for PR, hard, to keep Tories out of unjust power.

[–] franklin 6 points 4 months ago (1 children)

This is the exact same problem in the United States and even Canada right now. It's leading me to believe it's the inevitable conclusion of a first past the post system.

[–] [email protected] 9 points 4 months ago (1 children)

FPTP has to go, but the further right the government, the hard it is to push them for it. A right Labour is better odds then any Conservative flavor, and it's not like the Conservatives are moving left right now.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 4 months ago (2 children)

PR (well, some forms of it) is less bad than FPTP but it's not a panacea. Most PR systems have the problem that they give disproportionate power to unprincipled centrist parties that can make or break coalitions, at the expense of parties with more distinct agendas. This can lead to situations where the centrists are always there, regardless of how the election went, like the Free Democrats in Germany for many years. So if you want the LibDems to hold the whip hand, go for PR, since that result is as inevitable as the emergence of two big parties under FPTP.

[–] steeznson 5 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago)

I'd enjoy that scenario as a Lib Dem member

[–] [email protected] 3 points 4 months ago

What I wanted hasn't been implemented.

I want Mixed Member PR (Germany and New Zealand have this), but with score/range voting instead.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago)

I used to be a party member but left years ago when it got rough! Maybe getting back into politics more directly is the way to go: changing parties from within!

[–] [email protected] 6 points 4 months ago

I’m just doing it with more frustration than ever before

Pretty sure that represents the labour lead atm. Def folks wanting to vote against tories rather then for labour. Unfortunately it also leave the Tories with an open attack vector. They just need to time the right attack to dramatically split the left vote in Lab seats where they are still 2nd.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 4 months ago (1 children)

It's just getting more and more difficult to feel okay voting Labour.

Why? The Tories are barreling towards literal fascism, anything that will stop that is good. Could Labourbe better, absolutely, but it is not worth falling into what America has become just to spite them for being centralist and unambitious.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 4 months ago (1 children)

Some of Labour's recent policies (and stances on Palestine, trans people, etc) are scary and harmful. It's emotionally hard having to vote for a party that has spoken about removing your rights.

Pragmatically though: I know voting Labour will still shift things towards being better, even if that "better" is way worse than I wanted, and I would never begrudge anyone for voting for them. There's always more we can do in-between elections anyway

[–] [email protected] 3 points 4 months ago (1 children)

Edit: This is rambly and long and probably wrong, it's not worth anyone's time to read. Sorry.

I'm not trying to persuade you to vote Labour (I'm not voting them), but isn't their current trans policy a slight improvement over now? Only needing approval and a diagnosis of dysphoria from one doctor, not having to live openly as your preferred gender for two years.

Its still not remotely good enough, and will continue to see people die, but hopefully fewer people. Its a tiny little crumb. Like, the UK is transphobic to a shocking extent. And it would be good if the supposedly left-wing party properly stood for minority rights, instead of being bellends on refugees and trans people.

To be honest, this isn't even really directed at you, I'm mainly just talking it through for myself, a proud socialist questioning my gender. Sorry.

Tories have been trying to fight this election on immigration and trans people, as a replacement for their Boris and Brexit campaign in 2019 that beat Corbyn. Starmer has seemingly been trying to avoid giving them any ammo in this regard.

But Labour has a massive lead in the polls, even if it took a 5% hit by properly defending trans people, it could easily afford it, rather than making the climate even more unsafe. Maybe this policy is a tiny step towards that?

I've always maintained that even voting for the lesser of two evils is the least you can do, basic harm reduction, while then protesting and direct action and everything else on any other day.

But with Labour so far ahead, how important is it that they win every Tory marginal? But what matters more, stopping Labour from having the biggest majority ever, or pushing the Tories into 3rd? And every seat Labour takes from the Tories pushes them closer to the LibDems.

I saw Richard Drax predicted to lose Dorset South for the first time, and that filled me with such joy that I wouldn't even care if he lost it to Starmer himself. Fuck the Tories.

The rivers and the oceans are full of actual shit.

I don't know. I don't know what I'd vote in a predicted Tory-Labour marginal. Thankfully I live in a Labour safe seat and am free to campaign and vote with my conscience.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 4 months ago

No need to apologise, I agree :)

I'm also in a labour safe seat, and grateful I can vote my conscience, I'm just sad other people aren't so fortunate. Labour are saying some tiring stuff now to win over the Conservative voter base: it's the one time where I hope that politicians lie. Let's hope that Labour uses their win for good things, as they've promised in previous years.

May we all get to vote for more positive things within the next decade 💚

[–] [email protected] 6 points 4 months ago

jokes on them I already sent in my postal vote

[–] undergroundoverground 6 points 4 months ago

Hard agree. They gutted the electoral commission while gerrymandering like crazy. They have an army of right wing boomers brow beating anyone they come across into the ground with their "the two parties are identical in every single way" BS (all claiming to be left wingers while doing so, of course). If labour had been betting on things, using insider knowledge, there would be arrests already. The Met police went to the most secure and videoed place in the country (10 downing street) and lied, telling the whole nation that there was no evidence of the parties they were having during lockdown. Etc etc etc.

The very wealthy people and powerful people they represent won't go quietly, if at all, and they have no morals.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 4 months ago (1 children)

Starmer purged the left wing from his party, he can't be surprised when they don't vote for him.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 4 months ago (1 children)

Agreed. But its not about starmer being good. Its about being less bad then the Tories.

FPTP is an utter fuck over of an electoral system. That leaves very few places where voting 3rd party or even not voting is not a vote for Tory rule.

Its unpleasant but a simple fact that evil is quantifiable. When your choice is limited via the voting system. Refusing to vote for the lesser of 2 evils basically means you support goes to the greater.

[–] Gradually_Adjusting 1 points 4 months ago

The fight to resist evil is never wholly successful, but always necessary.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 4 months ago (1 children)

Maybe, or maybe they realise how screwed they are and will just save some of the cash for a future election.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 4 months ago

That is the definition of under estimation. Any theory can be wrong. But when you compare the cost of being prepared. Vs the cost of another 5 years of Tory rule. Its rather daft to ignore the money being there. Especially when you consider previous election manipulations the Tories and their right wing media supporters have managed.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago)

If you're worried about this, the best way to prevent it is to donate to and volunteer with the Labour party. Yes, there's a few places where voting for a different party is the better anti-Tory tactic if that is your priority, BUT:

  • it's hard to know for sure who the best vote is because the various tactical tools, polls, etc., often don't agree
  • very nearly everywhere Labour is your best bet anyway
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