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[-] [email protected] 3 points 12 hours ago

Nope, no harm at all. It's probably worth doing just to make sure they do have your current address down right!

[-] [email protected] 4 points 14 hours ago

Definitely, it's a good marker to compare future trends with.

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submitted 18 hours ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

The latest figures show that just 20 per cent say they would be delighted (7 per cent) or pleased (13 per cent) by a Sunak/Conservative victory, while 57 per cent would be disappointed (25 per cent) or dismayed (32 per cent).

A further reason to make sure the Conservatives lose: You don't want to disappoint or dismay the majority of the country, do you?

[-] [email protected] 7 points 18 hours ago* (last edited 13 hours ago)

I wish he wouldn't, but can't really blame him for trying. He might well win, after all.

EDIT: There's precedent for this, it turns out! Last time an incumbent, independent former Labour MP in Islington North ran for re-election was in the 1983 GE, when some guy called Jeremy Corbyn won easily for Labour. I don't think there's much read-through to the current situation because, firstly, the incumbent in 1983, Michael O'Halloran, obviously didn't have Corbyn's national recognition and, secondly, O'Halloran not only had defected (not been expelled), but had effectively defected twice: from Labour to the SDP, then from the SDP to 'Independent Labour' (in reality, just him) when he wasn't selected to fight the seat for his new party.

[-] [email protected] 7 points 18 hours ago* (last edited 18 hours ago)

Makes sense since somewhere between two thirds and three quarters of voters think it's time for a change of government!

[-] [email protected] 5 points 18 hours ago* (last edited 14 hours ago)

We're going to get a lot of polls, I'm sure, during the campaign so I just want to give some hot tips for reading the polls to people who haven't followed a GE that closely before.

  • Changes within 3 points or so aren't statistically significant on their own. The thing to do is to look for overall trends. If this company does another poll tomorrow showing Labour on 42% or 47%, that really wouldn't mean anything much.
  • This also means that, if a poll the day of the election looks like this, then any actual election result with Labour between 42% and 48% would mean that hypothetical poll was accurate - or no more inaccurate than expected. Obviously, that is a very wide margin, which should tell you something about the predictive power of individual polls this far out from election day!
  • Don't look for whatever headline caught your eye lately as the 'cause' of the any shift in the polls. Almost nothing makes much of a difference to polling and it's almost certain that large chunks of the population missed whatever you thought was important. Things like partygate and Trussonomics really did move the dial: it's stories of that kind of magnitude that have a real impact.
  • A corollary of the above is that almost nothing parties do during election campaigns makes a difference - 2017 was very unusual in that respect. Generally, voters have made their minds up already.
  • You can't straightforwardly compare polls by different companies. If some other company releases a poll tomorrow with Labour on 41%, that does not mean Labour's lead has in any sense fallen over that 24-hour period. Again, you need to look at overall trends to have any understanding of what's going on.
  • Relatedly, always look at the dates of the fieldwork and the dates of the changes (which OP has very rightly posted here). Some companies publish polls more often than others. Sometimes you'll see a poll with a massive change, but it turns out to be comparing with the last election, while many of the very frequent polling companies are comparing with last week.
  • On a similar note, look at where the polling was done. Polls of, e.g., just London, which some companies do, tend to show massive Labour leads, which people sometimes get very excited about because they wrongly think they're national polls.
[-] [email protected] 20 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

Now, this is an absolutely terrible idea with no redeeming features whatsoever but before we dismiss it just because of it's total lack of merit, we should also consider that it would be really, really funny.

[-] [email protected] 19 points 2 days ago

Too late, I've already changed it to say VOTE BINFACE.

(I am, of course, kidding.)

[-] [email protected] 5 points 2 days ago

You do. I don't know why, really. Sounds like the German system is better!

[-] [email protected] 3 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago)

I mean, it should get sent in plenty of time, without you having to do anything! There should be more info on precise timings on gov.uk.

[-] [email protected] 3 points 2 days ago

If you're already registered for a postal vote at your current address, you should be fine!

175
submitted 2 days ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

I assume most people here already are registered but just in case: here's the link.

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submitted 2 days ago by [email protected] to c/labour

You know you don't want to wake up on 5 July to five more years of the Tories. Volunteer to make sure that doesn't happen!

[-] [email protected] 6 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago)
[-] [email protected] 33 points 4 days ago

This is another version of the comment people are mocking. 'Ah, but in this incredibly extreme situation, bikes are inefficient!' Yeah, I know, mate. I wasn't planning on biking to the south pole with a fridge on my back, was I? The point is not that bikes are the best solution for every single journey any human has made or will ever make, but that cars aren't the best solution the vast majority of the time.

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submitted 1 week ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

In short, they're sticking with the New Deal for Workers, the unions won, it's great stuff.

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submitted 2 weeks ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

I think this is true.

I've been a big supporter of Starmer doing things I don't personally like in order to smash the Tories, but the local elections showed that the downsides of his strategy are starting to appear. He needs to shore up that left leaning vote, now, and he should look to Sadiq Khan and the other successful metro mayors to see how it's done. Luckily, and partly thanks to Starmer's leadership, he has plenty of examples to pick from!

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submitted 2 weeks ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]
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submitted 2 weeks ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

There's going to be an Urgent Question on the prisons crisis after PMQs today, so I thought I'd share this for some helpful background info.

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submitted 2 weeks ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]
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submitted 3 weeks ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]
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submitted 3 weeks ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

Thought this was quite good on getting people to defect and not just because it makes an identical point to one I made around here the other day:

There’s no getting away from the fact that it is quite difficult to reconcile a “they’re all the same” argument with a “this person chose to leave one for the other” argument: if they’re all the same, why bother moving?

But the most important point is this one:

Someone who used to vote Tory not voting Tory now is one vote off the Tory column, and someone who used not to vote Labour voting Labour now is one vote on the Labour column, and some people can be in both categories at once, and the net impact of just one of these people on the difference between the total Tory vote and the total Labour vote is +2.

A bit wordy, but does very clearly make the point that Labour trying to win over Tory voters isn't so much an indication of their political philosophy as an acknowledgement of arithmetic.

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submitted 3 weeks ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

Looks like he's going to jump before he's pushed.

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submitted 4 weeks ago* (last edited 4 weeks ago) by [email protected] to c/labour

Further analysis from the Guardian here: Labour’s plans for Great British Railways all but set up by Tory government.

And, for people who really like to go into the detail, Labour have now published a 28 page PDF, 'Getting Britain Moving' talking about how and why they're going to do it.

view more: next ›

frankPodmore

joined 11 months ago