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It's my opinion that a huge proportion of people that identify with Reform will get cold feet in the ballot box and decide to stick with what they know.
That would be nice, but I'm more pessimistic and think low-information voters (along with the usual racists, xenophobes and other hateful morons) might vote Reform as a protest.
Worth pointing out that the author of this piece is labours campaign manager. Its absolutely in his interest to try and make out that it isnt in the bag for labour as lower turn out if people think its a done deal could be the difference between a huge and crushing victory for labour.
That said if you live in a seat where the Tories are incumbents or closest chalenger you should absolutly vote for whoever is best placed to win against them no matter what you think the result will be. They need to be crushed this election.
I agree with the need for tactical voting. I absolutely disagree with the desirability of ever voting for Reform, even to drive the Tories out.
True, and worth noting. But what he says is inarguably true: no votes have been cast and if people assume they don't need to bother voting, that could have a dramatic effect on the final result.
This is what I've been thinking. The unending narrative push that labour have this one already sewn up makes me almost suspect a psyop of sorts. The only thing proving otherwise is that there can't be anyone behind such a push. The right have proven they can't put up a unified front against a stiff breeze and the left don't stand to gain at all from the false sense of security that will result in lower turn out if people think it's going to go their way anyway.
The only thing proving otherwise is that there can’t be anyone behind such a push. The right have proven they can’t put up a unified front against a stiff breeze
The Tory party are tearing each other apart like rabid hyenas but there's more going on in the right than them. There's the Tory press, lobbyists and other interest groups (like those run out if Tufton Street) and other state actors with interest in leaving the country in disarray. They've largely given up on this election but they will already be planning ahead. Voter suppression and spinning the take that this is a vote against the Tories not a vote for Labour and that could leave Starmer vulnerable down the line.
I reckon someone has been doing private polling and whispering in Farage's ear about the chance of becoming PM next election. That's the real danger.
spinning the take that this is a vote against the Tories not a vote for Labour
far from a false claim.
Tory campaigners and their media assistants will definitely have calculated that playing up the narrative of landslide benefits them:
The landslide narrative is dangerous for Labour and it's certainly not being promulgated by their campaign.
Labour lost the election BEFORE Tony Blairs win because everyone thought it was a done deal, instead we got 4 more years of the tories.
yes, but Smith's Labour hadnt been 20 points ahead for over a year with less than 2 weeks to go to the election
Yep. But honestly the Tories are skilled at this shit. Labours lead has way more to do with hatred of the Tories. Then hope/love for labours offering. While the polls still have a large number of undecided responses.
The Tories know full well they only need dislike for labour or stammer to at the least leave labour with a weak majority maybe even change to a coalition government.
And while ill say the Tories are worse off for partners in the event that a coalition is needed. A Labour Lib Dem or less likely Labour SNP gov is not going to be hugely popular.
While the Tories turning things around with some last min bacon sandwich like crap is very doable. Fighting for a weak gov where they can take advantage on Labours infighting is likely the path they see ahead.
I just dont see it. All the indicators are showing a siesmic labour victory and have been for a long time. Not just voting intention but "who do you want as a prime minister" "who do you trust on the economy/NHS/cost of living", local elections, by-elections, a fractured right wing vote, poor recent economic performance, an extremely bad campaign by Sunak highlighting the worst aspects of the tories.
I just dont see how all that doesnt result in a huge Labour victory, the tories have even shifted their campaigning message to "dont let labour win too big and give them a blank cheque to do whatever they like"
It almost certainly does, but we still mustn't be complacent. Instead we should aim for that stretch goal of knocking them below the Lib Dems. If nothing else it'd be really funny
Absolutely, I just find it silly that some people say the Tories will pull out something like the Bacon sadwich at the last moment and turn things around.
File this under "expectation management".
I think its more that they're worried labour voters won't bother actually voting then the tories win anyway.
The tories also get votes because they are so horrible, they know this and play to it. It does help them, put people don’t want to admit this to pollsters so they don’t poll as well. Especially when they are completely undefendable like they are now. Nothing drives people like hate and anger, which the press and tories stir up at every chance. They’ll complain about immigration and how bad immigrants are, despite them being responsible for the highest levels of immigration ever (tories like immigration it keeps wages down and makes unions weaker).
The tories will get more votes than you would expect, not enough to win. The tories have always been this nasty and incompetent. They still won elections.
It is my belief that this is exactly what happened last election. Labour have it in the bag, may as well not walk to the polling station, just stay here and play Red Dead.
Corbyn had his youth vote, but they just couldn't be bothered voting because he had it in the bag.
This election I'm ringing around my friends and driving them to the polling station
I guess you weren't paying attention to the opinion polls at the last election.
I don't see how this can be the case. Labour were miles behind the Tories for the entire campaign on every metric, having been behind for virtually the entirety of the previous five (or more) years!