I've been recently thinking about how a logical approach could be taken with the release of a Switch 2 and how Nintendo could give it a good first few years. I'm no professional in marketing or business (far from it), but I do still have some opinions. I feel that what the Switch 2 as a console could or should be like has perhaps been a bit over-discussed at this point, so I'd like to talk more about how it could be made successful from a business perspective. Let me know your thoughts.
Many people have been wondering lately how Nintendo can make a Switch 2 that will actually sell well, and not be another flop like the Wii U was immediately proceeding the Wii which sold like crazy. I would probably drive Nintendo straight into the ground if I was in charge with my zero experience, but here's my opinion.
If I was Nintendo I would be slowing down the release of games massively for at least a year before the Switch 2's release. They already seem to be doing this with the Switch 1, so this is a pretty obvious one. I would start by first slowing down the release of big new first-parties, and would as time goes on, slow down the release of the smaller first-parties, like Princess Peach Showtime. Whatever big first-party games weren't finished development on the Switch, I would start to transition the development of, over to the Switch 2, because a big game like a main-line Mario or big spin-off Zelda game that isn't a remake would convince many people to buy the new console if the game is exclusive to it.
I would, starting today, start printing new physical games in the Nintendo Selects line (Nintendo Selects is similar to Playstation Hits). I would also release this line on the Nintendo eShop as was done on the Wii U and 3DS (RIP). These games would be massively discounted from the original releases, for example, Breath of the Wild and Tears of the Kingdom which both released for $89 AUD (Australian Dollar) would be discounted. BotW would be dropped to $29, and Tears of the Kingdom would be dropped to $59 (which is about $40 USD) due to being less than a year old at this point. The prices of all the other Selects would depend on a per-game basis with how popular it was and how "big" of a release it was.
Due to the sheer success of the Switch and the sheer amount of great games available for it that a huge amount of Switch owners want: dropping the price of the games they want while simultaneously slowing the release of new games is a great way of allowing people to focus on buying the games they never got a chance to get (especially since Nintendo was so greedy by hardly, if ever, doing permanent price drops of their games (Breath of the Wild still $90)) making it very difficult to collect for a lot of people. They will be focusing on buying the games they want, while not thinking too much about the Switch 2. So, the more people who have bought the games on their wishlists, the more willing they will be to buy the new upcoming Switch, because they will actually be able to start buying the new games for that new console, without missing out on the games they wanted on the last console (the Switch 1).
I would announce the Switch 2 in around Feb 2025 (to allow the Christmas spending shock to wear off), and launch it in September 2025. Starting now, I would semi-rarely tease tiny tidbits of details about the new console without revealing any major details, this will create a build-up of hype to the reveal. The full reveal in Feb 2025 would reveal most major aspects of the console, without explaining the nitty gritty smaller details that get the hardcore fans excited. This will cause the fans imaginations to run wild as to how each thing will work, ramp up discussion about the console, and thus cause an influx of hype in the community, greater than what a simple reveal would be capable of on its own. Tease a tiny bit of the next main-line Mario game and Metroid Prime 4.
During the months of build-up of hype between the reveal and release of the console, announce that a new Smash Bros. IS happening, but don't announce a release year yet. About 2 weeks later, announce the development of the new Animal Crossing game, while revealing that the planned release date is in 2026. Animal Crossing is the second best selling Switch game and this is a vital announcement to ramp up the excitement of future customers and fans. In mid-late July 2025, hold a Nintendo Switch 2 (or whatever it will be called) Presentation, similar to the January 2017 one for the OG Switch. Hold it at an actual convention and allow visitors to get to play the early version of Mario Kart 9 or mainline Mario game on the new Switch that was only JUST announced or fully revealed after previous teases, during that presentation.
Of the smaller first-party games that were previously in development for the OG Switch, but were moved onto the Switch 2; the ones that most people don't generally buy a whole new console over, like Metroid (as much as it makes me cry to say that out loud); make those games cross platform releases, but keep the huge ones like the new Mario game exclusive to the new console. If Metroid Prime 4 releases in the first year of the Switch 2's life, and it's an exclusive game to that console, many potential sales may be lost due to a large portion of the Nintendo playerbase still being on the OG Switch, including players new to the Metroid franchise who still haven't bought the new console. So in that case, release the games on both platforms. The hardcore fan will either wait to get the new Switch to buy the game, or will buy it on the OG Switch that they already own. Either way, Nintendo will make a sale on this. I would only do this for the few remaining Switch games that were already in development for the OG console, and then be done with the console (in terms of new releases), because keeping new releases on the old Switch for too long will hinder the sales of the New console.
That's my thoughts. I'm not going to try to look too far ahead. Other than that, I would say that I would personally really like the next mainline 2D Metroid game (if the next Switch releases in 2025) to release in 2026. Hopefully the console will have done well enough by that point for the new Metroid game to sell well though, because according to Nintendo, Metroid Dread was supposed to be the end of the previous story-arc about "Metroids", implying there will be more future 2D games with a new story-arc. What are your thoughts on all of this?
I think slowing down on first party releases is natural at the end of any generation - once dev kits are available it just makes financial sense for new games to be built on the upcoming hardware.
Will Nintendo reduce the price of the current Switch's games? I doubt it (at least any time soon). Unlike the Wii U at the end of its lifespan, the Switch is still popular and people are still buying games like BOTW. And working on the assumption that there will be backwards compatibility, it wouldn't be consistent with Nintendo's strategy to reduce prices now.
I could see the new Metroid Prime being a Switch 2 launch title, and maybe they've been working on something like Odyssey 2 for that purpose. I doubt we'll see another Animal Crossing or Smash game for a while.
I don't think we've heard enough about Metroid Prime to bet on it being a Switch 2 launch title. I am thinking the upcoming Pokemon Legends is the likelier option, which already has a 2025 release window.
Yes I think you're right about Pokémon. But Nintendo does often keep things under wraps until the last minute. Maybe we'll hear something about Metroid a few months prior to the release of the new console? It would make sense to keep a heavy hitter like that up their sleeve.
Sheesh. Usually a launch title is supposed to demonstrate the potential of a console in regards to it's power and/or new gimmicks. Judging by the graphics in the Pokemon games of the Switch generation, when the console is more than powerful enough to do far better, I can't imagine a Switch 2 Pokemon launch title looking very impressive graphically, even if it's an improvement over the Switch 1's Pokemon graphics.
True. Some of the things I mentioned are obviously things that have already been done historically time and time again and Nintendo is obviously doing as we speak. As for the price drop though. Yeah, I don't expect Nintendo to do that because Nintendo is Nintendo. But I do think personally that that would be the logical step to take if I was in their shoes. My point about the price-drop is that because there are so many people who won't have bought all of the games that they wanted on the Nintendo Switch, it would be best to make those customers (which is a huge amount) be able to more easily purchase the games they want, thus the price drop suggestion.
If they have the games they want already, they are much more likely to care for and want to buy the next generation console, and they will gradually amass a list of games (even if it's a purely mental list) that they really want to get on that new system. A lot of people won't want to collect for the new system, until they've already bought much of their wishlist for the older system. Most people I think, including myself, can't afford to spend thousands of dollars on $80-90 games (AUD), or $60-$70 games for those in the USA. I think also, that a large amount of gamers won't want to spend that much money on a whole new console, when there are already so many Switch games they want to collect, which they don't yet have, as it is.
Even though so many are willing to spend that $80-$90 for 7 yr old games, so many still aren't willing, and in my opinion, it is more important for Nintendo to assure the success of the Switch 2, than to make some extra cash on the Switch 1 software sales during its slow-down year. Because if the Switch 2 is not successful, or does not sell as Nintendo hopes for, it will result in more loss of money in the end. It's a small sacrifice of short-term profit, that will result in a greater amount of long-term profit, while also making the customers more happy, and giving Nintendo back some good reputation from those who already hate how they keep their games the same price for over half a decade.
If I'm looking for the right sales, I could easily buy half a dozen or more Switch games for the same price as what the Switch 2 will likely cost on its own. I would rather buy the games on the Switch then fork out the money for a new console, and miss out on those games for a while longer. Therefore, backwards compatibility doesn't matter here, because if the Switch 2 is backwards compatible, than I can only play the games on the Switch 2 that I already owned prior. I, and I think many others, would rather play new games that I don't yet own, on a Switch, than to play the games that I already own, on a Switch 2 at a better frame rate or graphical resolution. Most people prefer new experiences over old ones; at least when it comes to gaming.
As for Metroid Prime 4. I think it probably won't launch that early on the Switch 2. If it has any chance of being very successful on the Switch 2 in the first year of that consoles life, it will have to be on launch day and launch day only. Otherwise, any other time in the year, and it risks being forgotten by the masses, because by the time most people have migrated to the Switch 2 in the 2nd or 3rd year of it's life, Metroid Prime 4 would no longer be relevant in the mainstreams' eye, and therefore sell very little in comparison to if it was released DURING that 2nd or 3rd year of the Switch's life. Of course I don't want Prime 4's release to be that long away, but I feel that if it's not a launch title, than launching in the 2nd or 3rd year of the console is the only chance it has of big success of sales. Imagine if Xenoblade Chronicles 2 launched in 2018 or 2019 (the 2nd and 3rd yr of the Switch's life) instead of 2017. I think it would have sold far more copies than it did. Not that Xenoblade 2 was an unsuccessful game.