this post was submitted on 28 Jan 2024
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A clash between Texas and the Biden administration over who controls the Texas-Mexico border continues to escalate this week as federal officials once again demanded the state give Border Patrol agents access to a park that is a popular corridor for migrants to enter the United States illegally.

This comes in response to a recent Supreme Court decision, where the court allowed federal officials to dismantle a wire barrier along the border, prompting a legal battle initiated by Texas. Texas argued that this action, aimed at aiding migrants, infringes on state sovereignty and damages Texas security measures.

In response to this decision, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott released a letter arguing that Texas has a right to control the border and that it supersedes federal government control. Abbott’s accusation that the federal government has breached the Constitution by having “broken the compact between the United States and the States” is almost identical to South Carolina’s 1860 declaration of secession.

Furthermore, Abbott’s letter espouses the fringe theory of constitutional law known as “compact theory,” popularized by Confederate states during the Civil War era and supported by Confederate President Jefferson Davis.

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[–] [email protected] 5 points 10 months ago (3 children)

Which is too bad, because I’d love “Texit” to happen

[–] eek2121 16 points 10 months ago (2 children)

You really do not, here is why in no particular order:

  • When Texas does, other red states will follow.
  • Once that happens, forget human rights for anyone other than white men. Arrests/executions of trans folks, for example, will be a thing.
  • Blue folks in the red area will be trapped and unable to get back home.
  • War will break out, millions if lives will be lost.
  • Don’t count on the military. Much of it id in red states and many members of the military are republicans.

Less likely, but far worse scenario could happen in addition to the above: Russia, Iran, North Korea, China, and other countries take advantage and attack parts of europe and possibly parts of the US. The US is a large part of NATO, so NATO will struggle to respond to the combined threat.

I understand wanting to see it happen, but much of what I said is very likely to play out if TX follows through.

You don’t need to believe me, but just think it through.

[–] [email protected] 13 points 10 months ago

Gotta disagree with the last two bullets. I think it's pretty unlikely any active duty military switches sides. So you're left with the largest military arsenal on the planet and one of the largest standing armies vs the Texas rangers, which likely would just haul ass to the US. I mean why wouldn't they? They don't have infinite weapons and personnel on their side.

They'd have it over in an afternoon if there was an armed conflict at all.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 10 months ago (1 children)

Eh, fuck that. Let's let them try it and round up all the racists and criminals. Why should we all lose land over this? Plus, there are plenty sane people in Texas... They should inherit the land for putting up with all those fucking crazy people.

[–] FlyingSquid 6 points 10 months ago (2 children)

It wouldn't happen in the sense that they would never succeed, but it would be amusing to see them try.

[–] [email protected] 12 points 10 months ago (2 children)

Texas can’t even keep its own electric grid up because of their isolationist attitude. I’d honestly love to see how it would go if all the tax and federal aid were to suddenly dry up. That’s not even getting into having a passport to leave the state, tariff on imports, taxes on exports, then getting retaxed to come into the United States.

I wonder how firearms legislation would wind up.

Texas also most likely would be unable to produce its own ammunition and would have one fuck of a time establishing trade routes that would be forced to go through the Gulf of Mexico, an easy target with only one way out between two corridors. Given that the whole thing was over Mexico border enforcement, something tells me land trade wouldn’t be very reliable if it were feasible.

[–] FlyingSquid 6 points 10 months ago

Texas has a lot of farmland, but do they even have enough to successfully feed their population on their own? And with enough diversity to keep the population satisfied? And they would be totally on their own because the U.S. would blockade them on every side except the Mexican border and there's no way in hell Mexico would make a deal with them.

[–] quaddo 1 points 10 months ago

Just wanted to throw something else into the discussion.

I’ll preface this that a) I’m no economist, and b) I’m Canadian.

Let’s harken back to circa 1996 when the Quebec separatists were once again threatening to leave. Also, they were going to keep the Canadian dollar as their currency.

I was having a chat with a coworker, who did have a minor in finance. He pointed out that if Quebec separated and kept the Cdn dollar, their fiscal policy would be dictated by Canada.

So reframing this for Texas: if they seceded, would they keep the USD? If not, how quickly would they be able to design their own currency and mint it? What exchange rate would they use for their citizens and how quickly could they get the new currency into the hands of everyone, including out in the boonies?

I’m completely glossing over any considerations around what might happen if they kept the USD.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 10 months ago* (last edited 10 months ago) (1 children)

Lets be honest if Gov. Abbot really tried to secede he'd likely find himself facing his very own "home grown" insurrection one way or another

Say what you want about the U.S., they have a lot of experience quietly funding local "freedom fighters" and I doubt this would be any different.

[–] FlyingSquid 5 points 10 months ago

The whole thing would be a massive shitshow and would not get Abbott anything he wanted.

I also doubt that his corporate masters would allow him to tank the stock market like that, because that's what would happen. Something tells me ExxonMobil and AT&T (both headquartered in Texas) would allow it to happen. They'd put a bullet in the back of Abbott's head before he could sign the articles of secession if they had to.