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Hope this is the beginning of Israel's transformation into an isolated and boycotted rogue state.
Or, even better, the beginning of Isreal's transformation into a country where people see through the bullshit of the far-right and elect decent leaders, leaving Netanyahu to rot in prison.
Going by the general trend around the world lately, that's a very unlikely outcome.
A lot of Israelis are blaming Netanyahu for the war, the Supreme Court of Israel struck down his constitutional reform, and thanks to him Israel can no longer take the support of their oldest allies completely for granted. The relationship between the US and Israel was already at an all-time low before all this thanks to Netanyahu being a piece of shit.
Of course, there's also the flip side of the coin: Netanyahu has always had a fear based platform, and the political climate lends itself well to that at the moment. There's always a rally behind the flag effect, and elections are still far away. So even if he loses the next election in a landslide that might be too late. Frankly it has been too late for many years already.
So all in all I agree in not being incredibly optimistic.
It's a nice thought, but until US policy changes, Israel is bulletproof.
You're right. Given demographic changes in the US, I do think it's only a matter of time before most Americans consider Israel to be an albatross around their necks.
I've disliked Israel govt for decades. Fuck Bibi and the IDF.
Can you seperate Bibi and the current government from the Israeli people and it's potential to elect a moderate government?
What is the general public opinion in Israel? Any large number of Israelis opposed to this genocide?
It's not a genocide and no there is massive support for this war against Hamas.
Is this your professional opinion as an expert in international law, or?
Yes.
So what kind of qualifications do you have to make this assessment, that it's not a genocide despite looking exactly like one?
If it moves, sounds and looks like a duck... Saying it is not genocide does not make it disappear.
So what you're saying it's that it sounds like ethnic cleansing. Glad we agree.
No one can deny genocide. Whether they like it or not, Israel is currently commiting genocide against the Palestinian people. And as someone who has jewish ancestry (and was assigned this religion before becoming an atheist), any Jew who supports this makes me wanna vomit. There is no reason to support Israel's current govt or endeavors. Peace is the only way forward. Restoring the occupied land to their rightful owners is the path forward.
A law degree and years of practice trying cases, interpreting and applying evidence and standards of proof, proving and disproving intent.
A high number of civilian casualties does not equal a genocide. Especially not when they are being prevented from leaving by Hamas and being used as human shields.
Proportionately, the total number of Palestinians compared to total number of Iraqis, there were 150 times more civilian deaths and Iraq per capita than in this war. Do you consider the US war in Iraq to be a genocide?
Okay, I am going to step over this even though I think the number of civilians killed is outrageous and has beaten lots of high scores of this century.
But for argument's sake, what about withholding food, aid, and medical supplies? Doesn't enabling the population to die of treatable diseases one indicator of a genocide intent?
About America, probably not due to the lack of intent for genocide, but what the US did was a flagrant undeniable human rights violation. So is your point like this: "other nations have massacred a similar albeit lower number of people per week on average than Israel, so you shouldn't hold Israel accountable for any crimes despite it indiscriminately killing over 24k civilians in the course of 100 days" ?
No Israel and the US should absolutely be held accountable for war crimes if they are credibly alleged, investigated, and proven.
Stories get twisted though. Like, Israel withheld some supplies, some places, some of the time. Within days they opened a humanitarian corridor and supplies flowed. They also told everyone to get out of Gaza City because they were coming for the tunnels. Last I heard something like 600,000 to 800,000 people did not evacuate.
Egypt closed the southern border crossing. Israel locked down it's border: it had just had a significant military incursion over it's border and 1,300 civilians were intentionally murdered; Hamas attacked some military targets, but also concerts, shopping centers, families just driving down the road, and hundreds of first responders. Hamas had no pretense of just war. And then the cowards retreated back into the tunnels, which they hid inside apartment buildings, schools, and hospitals, and so forth.
It's not that "everything is a Hamas base." It's that the bases are underneath Gaza City and connected by a massive tunnel network. There are apparently hundreds of miles of tunnels. 800 tunnel hidden shafts have been found all over the city. Israel has every right to destroy the tunnels; they are an instrumentality of terrorism. When a nation is attacked, it has the right to respond proportionately: destroying the instrumentality of the attack is the literal definition of a proportionate response.
The tunnels, in my view, were illegally and recklessly constructed, they've been used for snuggling weapons, including some 40,000 rockets and rocket launching systems, thousands of soldiers, leadership, supplies, etc., and they are valid, just, and moral military target, even if they are underneath public infrastructure, as the public has been told to leave. They were built specifically for these purposes and got significant funding frok Iran and North Korea. They are used by Hamas and it's sympathizers and affiliates, including people who identify as Islamic State, Mujahedeen, and about a dozen other groups recognized by the western world as terrorist organizations.
Yes, allowing a population to starve or die of preventable disease is evidence of genocidal intent. 80% of the population evacuated and fled to refugee camps. "But Israel bombed the refugee camps." Read up on them. According to reporting that I read, less than 100 people have been killed in such strikes, and Israel says they were members of Hamas, including one large group that was apparently having a meeting in a mosque within a refugee camp that included ranking members of Hamas. Unfortunately, they forced women and children into the mosque with them to use as human shields.
It's sad and fucked. That's war.
So basically you are saying "Yes it's genocidal and shows intent but there is no compelling evidence against Israel". Correct?
No. You've misread.
But you said:
And then you followed that by explanations that from your point of view show that it's not genocide because less than 100 people die in such strike, and that Israel says they are Hamas so we should take their word for it.
What part did I misread?
I don't know. That's your thing. Makes sense to me. If the airstrikes killed a bunch of Hamas terrorists and a few human shields, that Hamas's fault.
Seems to me like my first summary was correct. Your point (paraphrased) is as follows:
"Yes, this looks like genocide, but it isn't because Israel said it's not and because they said they are killing Hamas members."
At least we both agree that withholding food, meds, and basic needs from the population shows genocidal intent. Guess we'll just have to wait for the court to decide. Would you accept the ICJ decision?
Absolutely would accept the ICJ decision. I said elsewhere I think in this thread that if it comes out the other way, I would read it and figure out what information I didn't have or failed to appreciate right now, which could have helped me reach a more accurate assessment of things.
One thing I know we both lack is the real intelligence behind these strikes. I'll tell you though, I tend to believe most of Israel's claims, not because of some intangible trust of Israel or Bibi, but because they make sense.
The tunnels are massive and elaborate. Hamas has tens of thousands of fighters. Tens of thousands of rockets, rocket launchers, along with all sorts of guns and ammo. All those fighters and weapons are somewhere in Gaza.
If they are just shooting missiles at random, that's a war crime. They say they are not doing that and based on the evidence so far I find that that to be credible. Sometimes when the US launches an air strike or drone strike, they have human intelligence or signals intelligence on a target, and depending on the value of the target, if he's with his family, or at church, the strike may or may not go ahead. With Hamas engaged in a strategy of subterranean, urban warfare and a policy of martyrdom and using human shields and hostages, I find Hamas and its affiliates responsible for the high number of civilian casualties.
I appreciate your engagement here and willingness to hear me out, as a random internet stranger.
I find it hard to believe Israel after they faked evidence and spread misinformation purposefully. I also find it hard to trust the word of a military official (that in my opinion is sending his/her soldiers to commit genocide) over hours and hours and hours of footage showing Palestinian children under the rubble and full families under flattened houses, or journalists plainly attacked and killed without any justification or warning or any fighters in their vicinity. Not to mention bombing ambulances and killing already critically wounded people.
One eye opener for me was Breaking the Silence, an organization that collects testimonies from previous or current IDF soldiers. The things the IDF does in horrendous. Torture and humiliation for no other purpose but to degrade Palestinians. I highly recommend checking it out especially those who had served in Hebron.
I also think the vast majority of other law experts disagree with you completely. I don't mean on the stuff about Hamas (all of what you said about the tunnels is most likely true), but about the proportionality of the attacks that have killed over 10k children, in shelters and schools. It shows that the IDF has no regard for Palestinian lives, and some evidence from October 7th shows that some IDF had no regard for Israeli lives either and ended up killing many people they were sent to protect. I am sorry but it's both impossible and unreasonable for me to have trust in the Israeli government or military (not just Bibi, we seem to both agree he is not exactly very bright).
There is no proportionality in having killed the largest number of medical professonals, UN workers, and journalists.
Thank you too for engaging in the discussion. I sometimes slip into this dark mood on the internet but there is no reason to turn this places into Reddit which we all probably left.
I will definitely check out those interviews.
Not an expert on idiocy myself, but you sure are looking like one.