this post was submitted on 23 Aug 2023
175 points (95.3% liked)

Canada

7241 readers
252 users here now

What's going on Canada?



Related Communities


๐Ÿ Meta


๐Ÿ—บ๏ธ Provinces / Territories


๐Ÿ™๏ธ Cities / Local Communities

Sorted alphabetically by city name.


๐Ÿ’ SportsHockey

Football (NFL): incomplete

Football (CFL): incomplete

Baseball

Basketball

Soccer


๐Ÿ’ป Schools / Universities

Sorted by province, then by total full-time enrolment.


๐Ÿ’ต Finance, Shopping, Sales


๐Ÿ—ฃ๏ธ Politics


๐Ÿ Social / Culture


Rules

Reminder that the rules for lemmy.ca also apply here. See the sidebar on the homepage: lemmy.ca


founded 4 years ago
MODERATORS
you are viewing a single comment's thread
view the rest of the comments
[โ€“] [email protected] 4 points 1 year ago (1 children)

I mean partly due to real estate now the largest contributor to the gdp (https://www.statista.com/statistics/594293/gross-domestic-product-of-canada-by-industry-monthly/ ) and partly due to the abundance of non home real estate supply, Canada is in a situation of not so much being in a bubble but being the bubble. In a 2008 type crash you have a large group of people with enough capital that could by out the foreclosed houses, the upper middle class (but not all of them https://www.cbc.ca/radio/day6/episode-407-the-waffle-house-index-trump-book-quiz-the-big-trip-photographing-spain-s-ghost-towns-and-more-1.4821840/photographing-spain-s-ghost-towns-10-years-after-the-financial-crisis-1.4821871 ).

But I think Canada's next crash will not be part of a world wide event and will be a value crash more then a mortgage crash at a time when that upper middle class is narrowing. When a value crash happens the people who would buy the majority would see their own equity take a hit, limiting how much appetite most would have for buying more. the ultra rich put their money in real estate for investment or laundering, they would be effected but not as much long term (nice to be rich).

Then you have the companies, most are leveraged to the teeth and are not even concerned with the rental income in a lot of cases (they still get all the rent they can, they just see it as a side effect). In the case of a value crash they would be underwater and go overnight, this does not mean other larger entities would not jump in to buy them for pennies on the dollar, but it would remove a lot of the intensive that exists right now. This might mean rents go up when these companies get desperate but the renting class can not bare much more and would likely result in another crisis.

In short term this next crash (unless something really drastic or shady is done) will be incredibly bad for everybody, but in the medium term the poor have little to no capital to lose compared to everyone else and should see prices collapse and due to that being Canada's largest business now would have to cater to the new market. In the long term many here in power would be back trying to pump up the housing bubble and most ultra rich would be hesitant to invest in a market that has shown it is a bubble (think Japan, Grease, Ireland, China, etc.).

[โ€“] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago

Thanks, good thought process ๐Ÿ‘