this post was submitted on 18 Feb 2025
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Even some of us in Australia could see it coming. Back in 2023, one of our former PMs interviewed a member of a CIA taskforce that had created a predictive model for civil wars. Normally it's used on other countries, but they tried applying it to the US and you can guess what the results were.
https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/americas-coming-civil-war/id1674095396?i=1000626742633 https://open.spotify.com/episode/0MVeiDPgEtLRMsg3kMHV2K https://www.audible.com.au/podcast/Americas-coming-civil-war/B0CH8QQ4N2
Yeah, Americans are very keen on the idea that the situation will resolve violently through civil war (or revolution).
I'm skeptical. More likely they will quietly submit, as they have so far. Non-US countries should consider the entirety of the US a hostile regime until I'm proven wrong, the same way they do with Russia or Belarus.
Honestly, with the way Musk is tearing through departments and the cybersecurity threat his team poses, none of the US's allies (e.g. Australia) should be sharing intelligence with the US any more. If we're smart, we should be treating the US as having been compromised by hostile foreign powers.
I'd forgotten that episode. Time for a relisten, Turnbull has done a good job with that podcast.
He probably needs another host though, someone else to bounce off to liven him up a little.
I heard Shorten is about to become quite a lot less busy....