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Freezing investment into the country and nuclear grade austerity will always bring inflation to an almost stand still. You're literally tossing liquid nitrogen on your economy, it's absolutely going to freeze.
And this is the key aspect that usually makes people who consider this pause for a second. Because freezing your economy might solve the right now problem, it also has the ability to ice economic activity completely, triggering an economic depression. This is the "balance" so to say. The harder your freeze, the more you'll need to rewarm the markets to get your economy going again.
This has always been the super tricky part of the weapons grade austerity. The what comes after part. So Milei has done it, he's cooled the markets and supply has nearly cratered in the country. The next steps is to get production back and start pesos in the country to start flowing again.
I've always been a bit irresolute about Milei's approach on the economy. I'm not against it, it's just a strategy that's playing with fire in a gun powder factory. First and foremost, I hope that the people in Argentina find economic stability, because boy do they deserve it. So to that end I hope WHOEVER succeeds in getting that done. And second, I really hope this is something that can be long lasting. Hyper austerity has a history of bad boomerang effects. It can work, it's just takes a ton of work, more than most governments are willing to invest. And so there's a big chance that we could start to see some positive only to then watch it completely crumble once again.
If I was a leader, this isn't exactly a strategy I would pick. There's just a ton of places where it can go all wrong. But I hope the guy gets it fixed once and for all. But dang, I don't know how dude is smiling in that photo because if I was going down this road I wouldn't be able to sleep properly.
Milei is pumping millions into shale oil pipelines and lithium mines, I assume that's his game plan for "rewarming the markets".
Could you give some examples of where this has worked in the past?
Here's a fun one:
Neoliberalism: Oversold? -- Finance & Development, June 2016 https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2016/06/ostry.htm
Finance & Development, June 2016, Vol. 53, No. 2
Thank you for posting this. It is good to see studies, even metanalysis or otherwise, enter the forum discourse.
That doesn't sound like a positive outcome...
And it's coming from inside the IMF house.
I thought he was another right wing populist demagogue but apparently there is method to his madness. I hope he pulls off this stunt perfectly and is able to land the plane.
The method to his madness is "fuck the poor."
It's a lot easier to win the fight against inflation when you don't give a shit who suffers because of it.