this post was submitted on 17 Oct 2024
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Israeli officials said Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar was killed by Israel Defense Forces in the southern Gaza Strip on Wednesday. Hamas has not commented publicly on the reports.

Sinwar was the mastermind of the Oct. 7 terror attacks, which killed 1,200 people and set off Israel's year-long war against Hamas in Gaza. Israel has made killing him a key objective, and may now be more willing to scale back its military operations in Gaza.

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[–] FlyingSquid 36 points 1 month ago (4 children)

I just don't see this changing anything.

[–] [email protected] 14 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (2 children)

He was particularly hostile to peace with Israel (and Israel was particularly hostile to peace with him). Furthermore (according to my understanding) Hamas doesn't have much formal structure; it isn't like the USA where the government is ready to accept the vice president as the leader if the president dies. I assume that Sinwar prepared a successor, but there's still probably no one who knows all the same things and has the loyalty of all the same people.

[–] FlyingSquid 21 points 1 month ago (2 children)

Israel has already moved on to Lebanon. This is a forever war. That's what Netanyahu wants. His best friend has been trying to tell the world about it.

https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-798324

[–] gAlienLifeform 16 points 1 month ago

He also wrote that Netanyahu will pay any price at the expense of the public in Israel, provided that his rule does not fall "and therefore, to the horror of it, there is no chance that the war will end in the foreseeable future. Neither voluntarily nor according to logic. Its continuation forever is the only barrier that will prevent his personal catastrophe.

Yep, the ongoing war is delaying a corruption trial against Bibi where I think he could be sentenced to up to 30 years in prison, so he's going to keep this war going forever if he can

[–] [email protected] 4 points 1 month ago (1 children)

Israel is not the USA. It doesn't have the economy to support a forever war, even with US help. Most of its soldiers are reservists who need to go back to their jobs sooner rather than later.

[–] FlyingSquid 4 points 1 month ago (1 children)

Please read the article I pasted the link to.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 month ago (1 children)

I'm not a fan of Netanyahu but that article isn't a hard-headed political analysis. Even Netanyahu is constrained by physical reality; he might not have a realistic plan for peace, but that doesn't mean he can continue war indefinitely.

[–] FlyingSquid 7 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

He will try. That's the point.

I doubt any war could literally never end.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 month ago (1 children)

You don't think that whoever survives the horror they just have been through on Gaza will eventually replace them?

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (1 children)

No, I don't think the popular theory that organizations like Hamas exist because people want revenge is correct. The critical component seems to be a power vacuum; in its absence humans will tolerate anything. If Israel establishes order in Gaza by some means (and by that I don't just mean armed patrols through hostile territory) then there can be occasional terrorist attacks but no organized resistance.

The problem that I see is actually that there's little precedent for establishing order in circumstances like this while acting with the humanitarian constraints that Israel does have. The USA failed in Afghanistan and Iraq. Russia succeeded in Chechnya but Israel cannot (and should not) even come close to the level of brutality Russia employed.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 1 month ago

Yeah if Israel extends it's apartheid into Gaza, that'll bring peace in the region for sure.

/S

[–] [email protected] 4 points 1 month ago (1 children)

They need to take out the real terrorist, Bibi

[–] FlyingSquid 2 points 1 month ago

Things are going to have to get a lot worse for the IDF before they would take out their own leader.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 month ago (1 children)

I think it makes it a bit more difficult to escalate and therefore help elect Trump. For Bibi, Sinwar being at large is an unequivocal argument to keep on keeping on in Gaza. Now that he's gone, he'll have to use flimsier ones and whoever might push back, could push back harder.

[–] FlyingSquid 0 points 1 month ago

Who is going to push back?

[–] InverseParallax -1 points 1 month ago

Meh, it's not a bad thing.

Killing Hamas (who did Oct 7) should make it easier to put things back together afterwards.

Bibi has to go first though, obviously, he's 10 Sinwars.