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Yeah. Came here to write exactly this.
What OP misunderstood is the old tale of mortality vs. lethality.
In a simplified explanation: Mortality defines the percentage of deaths in a population by a cause.
Lethality is the percentage of deaths of people suffering from a cause.
In our case:
Smokers might only get hit by a bus slightly less often or slightly more often(1) (Mortality)
But they have a far greater chance of dying from it when they get hit. The same can be said for being shot,etc. Being a smoker always reduces your statistical chances.
(1:Actually quite fascinating - there is conflicting evidence on that one, as smoking is often statistically associated with substance abuse and bad health - which increases the likelihood of major trauma events, but on the other hand smokers die earlier,leaving more old people to walk in front of vehicles due to reduced cognitive abilities)
We must do something about all these old people getting run over by buses.
Less busses, more big trucks. Truck-Chan will isekai them safely.
I wonder what happens when the truck driver and the old person both smoke. Does that cancel them out? 🤔
Puff, puff, pass away
Quick maffs.
Free cigarettes! Should help reduce the number of old people getting run over by buses
Indeed is major trauma (which getting run over by a bus is a euphemism for) a much overlooked concern for older people (especially "the younger" old people, which are between 60-75).
So what about if we control for age? Are old smokers more or less likely to get hit by a bus than old non-smokers?
Quick, someone do an RCT.