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I suspect he's dropping out on some pretense, now that the campaign stopped being fun. If there is any chance in hell he could get a deal to get his sentence(s) commuted, I think he'd do it in a heartbeat.
His dropping out seems very unlikely. Not impossible by any means, but unlikely. He doesn't seem like the person who's capable of admitting defeat, especially considering his legal troubles
I agree, and I think we're working from the same priors. I just have a funny little hunch.
Heh, I get it. Let's see what happens – I'd certainly enjoy the chaos that Trump dropping out would cause. Republicans would go fucking nuts
It would have a pleasing symmetry with the headache Biden has caused with the old guard in the Dem party that wanted him out.
More likely than him "dropping out" would be him saying that there would be no Republican candidate for president "because the election is rigged!!!"
I could see this also, a bad faith withdrawal and pivot to inciting further insurrection. My gut tells me that some kind of historical first is coming down the pipe.
Could use it as an excuse for another coup attempt
I think if Trump was projected to lose by an embarrassing margin - I'm talking like 75-25 - he might prefer trying to weasel out of having a legitimate devastating loss on official record. That's not happening though with how big his base is, and with the electoral college being the way it is he is still probably favoured to win - though yes the polls are slipping.
Regardless, I can't see him dropping out now.
No way. Trump would just use that as "proof" that the election was rigged. In his mind there is no way people wouldn't vote him into office, so any scenario where he loses, his narcissism would force him to claim there was election malfeasance .
You're probably right.
He is still in quite a bit of legal jeopardy. I highly doubt he would drop out knowing that some lawsuits have only been held at bay due to the position of power a presidential candidate and the godhead of a cult has.
Not that I believe this is the case AT ALL, but to further this line of thought:
If he was dropping out, it would be because he's already got the party machine going on a new (guaranteed) nominee who would have already promised to pardon trump (and this promise would be assured by some damning fact trump could use as an assurance)
He won't. The only reason he is running this time is to stay out of jail though I think.
If he drops out, I guarantee he's going to be doing a runner shortly after.
It's more likely he'll use this event to set up things for a civil war
I could easily see that. Right now the only thing I'm not expecting is for the next couple of months to be uneventful.
0% chance. Narcissists cannot admit defeat.