Blackbeard

joined 1 year ago
MODERATOR OF
[–] Blackbeard 4 points 5 days ago

Part of me keeps hoping that there's some kind of systemic right-wing bias of modern polling methodologies, and that as time goes on we can count on the gap between polling and election results to get larger in the leftward direction. Gods what I wouldn't give for a systematic, nationwide trouncing of the GOP like the one Dems got from them in 2010. Instead it seems like we keep getting hope dangled in front of our faces and results are always middling, at best, with the rare exception of a Georgia runoff or an Alabama one-off.

I sure hope you're right that Cruz is in trouble. For all our sakes.

[–] Blackbeard 100 points 5 days ago (4 children)

What a bullshit, clickbait headline. The actual story is at the end:

Baris claimed that conservative polls showed that Trump was tied or had a "believable" edge against Harris.

"And when you look at the track records of the pollsters in those two courts, right in those two camps, really, you know the ones who are showing the tighter race with Trump with an advantage, have better track records," he insisted.

He's not saying her numbers are "unbelievable" as in, "holy shit that's awesome!" He's saying they're literally unbelievable, as in, "I don't believe that's real."

[–] Blackbeard 13 points 5 days ago* (last edited 5 days ago) (2 children)

Current polling data has Cruz trailing by 1 point

You're citing the only poll where Cruz is behind, so if we're talking about polling more broadly that's very much not true. His lead has been fairly consistent in the +3 to +5 range for months. Scott's lead is the same or bigger, again with one polling exception.

[–] Blackbeard 3 points 1 week ago (1 children)

The Supreme Court has rejected an emergency appeal from Nevada’s Green Party seeking to include presidential candidate Jill Stein on the ballot in the battleground state.

[–] Blackbeard 5 points 1 week ago (3 children)

...you want to use State power to bar a US citizen from running for office because she appeared in a photo, but you're accusing us of being arbitrary and authoritarian?

[–] Blackbeard 68 points 1 week ago (8 children)

The Green party was represented at the Supreme Court by Jay Sekulow, a Trump ally who was part of the president’s legal team during his first impeachment trial.

Yeah sure, it's the Democrats who are being dubious here...

[–] Blackbeard 5 points 1 week ago (2 children)

He's term limited.

[–] Blackbeard 22 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago)

The party doesn't care about him, specifically. His polling has been under water for months, and anyone who's not utterly delusional knows he's about to get thumped by Stein. They're now worried that if he stays in the race over the next month and a half, he will continue to be a lightning rod for Democratic attacks, especially on abortion, and that'll continue to dampen Trump's messaging. Still not convinced NC could go blue, but if it does, Robinson will be hugely responsible for it. He's a fucking moron who makes Trump look sane and stable.

[–] Blackbeard 55 points 1 week ago

What does any of that have to do with the comment you replied to or the article?

[–] Blackbeard 20 points 1 week ago (2 children)

For every Trump supporter you can find that lives in the unpopulated country in a trailer on a swamp, there are a dozen upper class spoiled brats for whom Trumpism has become core to their identity:

Trump voters’ median income exceeded the overall statewide median in all 23 states, sometimes narrowly (as in New Hampshire or Missouri) but sometimes substantially. In Florida, for instance, the median household income for Trump voters was about $70,000, compared with $48,000 for the state as a whole. The differences are usually larger in states with substantial non-white populations, as black and Hispanic voters are overwhelmingly Democratic and tend to have lower incomes. In South Carolina, for example, the median Trump supporter had a household income of $72,000, while the median for Clinton supporters was $39,000. (from 2016)

Throwing a little bit of anecdote behind that data, the most rabid Trump supporters in my family like to complain about "government teat" liberals while lounging on their 20+ foot boats which they launched from private docks beside their $1+ million lakeside or shoreside homes. That includes my father in law, 1 of my father's cousins, 4 of my uncles, and the husband of my own cousin. Not even exaggerating that they all either live on the waterfront or have a waterfront vacation home, and they all have huge boats. Three of my wife's uncles who are feverish Trumpers inherited a textile fortune from daddy and have never had to work a day of hard labor in their lives. The most rabid Trump supporter in my wife's extended network who routinely bitches and moans about how offended she is at the idea of "white privilege", lives on a 154 acre estate and inside a 7,550 square foot home that overlooks a private lake. She's as die-hard a Trump supporter as they come.

I wish I were joking.

[–] Blackbeard 3 points 1 week ago (1 children)

the subject is mute.

*moot

[–] Blackbeard 2 points 1 week ago

I hear you. Didn't mean for that to come across as an attack on you.

 

President Biden’s policy agenda is incredibly popular, much more popular than his opponent’s. But Biden the man? Not so much.

The question now is whom to blame for the approval gap between the president and his agenda: voters, the media or Biden himself.

Democrats have long argued that their policies are more popular than those of Republicans. In a recent blind test conducted by YouGov, that was unmistakably true. The polling organization asked Americans what they thought about major policies proposed by Biden and Donald Trump without specifying who proposed them. The idea was to see how the public perceived ideas when stripped of tribal associations.

Biden’s agenda was the winner, hands down.

Of the 28 Biden proposals YouGov asked about, 27 were supported by more people than opposed them. Impressively, 24 received support from more than 50 percent of respondents.

 

Mod has been inactive for a year, and I’d like to take it over and help it generate more traffic.

 

The frequency and magnitude of extreme wildfires around the globe has doubled in the last two decades due to climate change, according to a study released Monday.

The analysis, published in the journal “Nature Ecology & Evolution,” focused on massive blazes that release vast amounts of energy from the volume of organic matter burned. Researchers pointed to the historic Australia fires of 2019 and 2020 as an example of blazes that were “unprecedented in their scale and intensity.” The six most extreme fire years have occurred since 2017, the study found.

 

The latest insight comes from a study on butterflies in the Midwest, published on Thursday in the journal PLOS ONE. Its results don’t discount the serious effects of climate change and habitat loss on butterflies and other insects, but they indicate that agricultural insecticides exerted the biggest impact on the size and diversity of butterfly populations in the Midwest during the study period, 1998 to 2014.

 

I deleted it when it didn't gain enough traction, and I'd like to revive it.

 

A major expansion underway inside Iran’s most heavily protected nuclear facility could soon triple the site’s production of enriched uranium and give Tehran new options for quickly assembling a nuclear arsenal if it chooses to, according to confidential documents and analysis by weapons experts.

Inspectors with the International Atomic Energy Agency confirmed new construction activity inside the Fordow enrichment plant, just days after Tehran formally notified the nuclear watchdog of plans for a substantial upgrade at the underground facility built inside a mountain in north-central Iran.

Iran also disclosed plans for expanding production at its main enrichment plant near the city of Natanz. Both moves are certain to escalate tensions with Western governments and spur fears that Tehran is moving briskly toward becoming a threshold nuclear power, capable of making nuclear bombs rapidly if its leaders decide to do so.

 

Israel is up against a regional superpower, Iran, that has managed to put Israel into a vise grip, using its allies and proxies: Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis and Shiite militias in Iraq. Right now, Israel has no military or diplomatic answer. Worse, it faces the prospect of a war on three fronts — Gaza, Lebanon and the West Bank — but with a dangerous new twist: Hezbollah in Lebanon, unlike Hamas, is armed with precision missiles that could destroy vast swaths of Israel’s infrastructure, from its airports to its seaports to its university campuses to its military bases to its power plants.

But Israel is led by a prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, who has to stay in power to avoid potentially being sent to prison on corruption charges. To do so, he sold his soul to form a government with far-right Jewish extremists who insist that Israel must fight in Gaza until it has killed every last Hamasnik — “total victory” — and who reject any partnership with the Palestinian Authority (which has accepted the Oslo peace accords) in governing a post-Hamas Gaza, because they want Israeli control over all the territory between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea, including Gaza.

And now, Netanyahu’s emergency war cabinet has fallen apart over his lack of a plan for ending the war and safely withdrawing from Gaza, and the extremists in his government coalition are eyeing their next moves for power.

They have done so much damage already, and yet not President Biden, the pro-Israel lobby AIPAC, nor many in Congress have come to terms with just how radical this government is.

Indeed, House Speaker Mike Johnson and his fellow G.O.P. mischief makers decided to reward Netanyahu with the high honor of speaking to a joint meeting of Congress on July 24. Pushed into a corner, the top Democrats in the Senate and the House signed on to the invitation, but the unstated goal of this Republican exercise is to divide Democrats and provoke shouted insults from their most progressive representatives that would alienate American Jewish voters and donors and turn them toward Donald Trump.

 

Mark Robinson, the firebrand Republican nominee for governor in North Carolina, has for years made comments downplaying and making light of sexual assault and domestic violence.

A review of Robinson’s social media posts over the past decade shows that he frequently questioned the credibility of women who aired allegations of sexual assault against prominent men, including Hollywood producer Harvey Weinstein, actor Bill Cosby and now-U.S. Supreme Court Justice Brett M. Kavanaugh. In one post, Robinson, North Carolina’s lieutenant governor, characterized Weinstein and others as “sacrificial lambs” being “slaughtered.”

Robinson has drawn scrutiny for his incendiary remarks on other issues, including about LGBTQ+ people, religion and other political figures. But his comments on domestic violence and sexual assault stand out for their tone and frequency, as well as Robinson’s repeated questioning of accusers.

While Robinson is, in some ways, emblematic of the Republican Party’s turn under Donald Trump toward rewarding inflammatory, sexist language, his dismissals of women threaten to test Robinson’s appeal with voters troubled by that history, in particular female voters.

 

Last fall, out of public view, the North Carolina Supreme Court squashed disciplinary action against two Republican judges who had admitted that they had violated the state’s judicial code of conduct, according to three sources with direct knowledge of the decisions.

One of the judges had ordered, without legal justification, that a witness be jailed. The other had escalated a courtroom argument with a defendant, which led to a police officer shooting the defendant to death. The Judicial Standards Commission, the arm of the state Supreme Court that investigates judicial misconduct by judges, had recommended that the court publicly reprimand both women. The majority-Republican court gave no public explanation for rejecting the recommendations — indeed, state law mandates that such decisions remain confidential.

Asher Hildebrand, a professor of public policy at Duke University, explained that in the 2010s, North Carolina had policies designed to keep the judiciary above the political fray, such as nonpartisan judicial elections. However, the gradual dismantling of these policies by the Republican-controlled legislature has driven the court’s polarization, according to Hildebrand.

 

Preventing local governments from reducing plastic waste is just one recent example of the many ways Republican lawmakers have used the state budget, theoretically a fiscal document, to weaken existing environmental regulations or prevent more.

Since taking power in 2011, GOP leaders have introduced dozens of environmental provisions in state budgets, rather than standalone bills. That includes 2023 provisions preventing North Carolina from joining a cap-and-trade program that could have limited greenhouse gasses released by the state’s power plants and stymieing Gov. Roy Cooper’s efforts to shift trucks across the state from diesel fuel to electric power.

Since 2017, state environmental officials have been grinding their way toward regulating these per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances, or PFAS. While scientists know of thousands, DEQ identified eight present here that it intended to regulate in ground- and surface water.

But in April, the N.C. Chamber, the state’s powerful business interest group, urged the N.C. Environmental Management Commission to slow down and conduct more research before approving rules for the substances. Much of Chamber President Gary Salamido’s argument to delay setting new limits focused on new drinking water rules the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency finalized this year for six of the eight PFAS the state is considering limiting.

He also pointed to the renewed Hardison Amendment, writing that regulators need to consider whether they are going further than the EPA’s rules.

 

A federal judge blocked most of a law championed by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) that strictly limited transgender health care for adults and banned it completely for children.

In his decision, U.S. District Judge Robert L. Hinkle rejected a common mantra of the DeSantis administration, saying that “gender identity is real,” and that the state cannot deny transgender individuals treatment.

“Florida has adopted a statute and rules that ban gender-affirming care for minors even when medically appropriate,” Hinkle wrote. “The ban is unconstitutional.”

 

More efficient manufacturing, falling battery costs and intense competition are lowering sticker prices for battery-powered models to within striking distance of gasoline cars.

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