Lemmy.World

Just ran into a link to this article from another medium. While I realize this is speculations, it's still a summary of models that look at the risk of concurrent global crop failures.

From the article:

Abstract
Simultaneous harvest failures across major crop-producing regions are a threat to global food security. Concurrent weather extremes driven by a strongly meandering jet stream could trigger such events, but so far this has not been quantified. Specifically, the ability of state-of-the art crop and climate models to adequately reproduce such high impact events is a crucial component for estimating risks to global food security. Here we find an increased likelihood of concurrent low yields during summers featuring meandering jets in observations and models. While climate models accurately simulate atmospheric patterns, associated surface weather anomalies and negative effects on crop responses are mostly underestimated in bias-adjusted simulations. Given the identified model biases, future assessments of regional and concurrent crop losses from meandering jet states remain highly uncertain. Our results suggest that model-blind spots for such high-impact but deeply-uncertain hazards have to be anticipated and accounted for in meaningful climate risk assessments.

Diverse regioni agricole vitali per la produzione alimentare mondiale possano infatti essere colpite contemporaneamente da ondate distruttive e persistenti di caldo o di pioggia, facendo schizzare alle stelle i prezzi dei beni di prima necessità in tutto il mondo.

[Articolo in inglese.]

Simultaneous harvest failures across crop-producing regions are major threats to global food security. A strongly meandering jet can trigger these, however, climate and crop models underestimate effects with consequences for climate risk assessments.

The lead author also has an explanatory Twitter thread if that site isn't broken today