They are tied? Are you fucking kidding me USA?
this post was submitted on 07 Nov 2023
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The overlap between sane voters and poll voters isn't very big.
As an American… expect it to continue getting worse. There are so many batshit stupid people in this country. It’s depressing.
Not only the preferences, the very same electoral system is a damn joke.
"Sorry, 10,000 people in some town in Michigan/Pennsylvania/Georgia decided we're fascist now."
"Sorry, billionaires, foreign countries governments, grifting assholes and Facebook Karens brainwashed 10,000 people in some town in Michigan/Pennsylvania/Georgia into believing that all Democrats are pedophiles and trans people are the downfall of society so they decided we’re fascist now.”
This timeline is disgusting. :/
When the average person is being told by Biden that the economy is doing great but don't see it in housing/food/gas prices where all their money goes, you can bet people will swing back to the lunacy of the right. When you only have two options and are desperate for change what option do people feel they have?
We desperately need third party options.
We should go after the corporations who are just plain taking advantage of people. It is sickening.
If Biden had responded to inflation with price controls these polls would be the other way around
Democrats tried but the bills never got out of committee. Especially when had hit $5 a gallon nation wide.
Tried? No. A few paid lip service. If the democratic party wanted something done they would get it done.
That's not how the legislative branch works. Congress has too many republicans.
It is so embarrassing how few people understand how our system of government works. The President is not a king.
Not a king. But the bully pulpit has considerable power to shape public discourse.
All I have seen from the administration is explaining how Bidenomics are a huge success, and look at these amazing numbers on a graph that don't represent working class struggles. It's a waste of breath when they could be pushing for policies that would make material change for working class people.
He sure as shit used the bully pulpit to explain why breaking up the railway strike was "in our best interests".
Most of these polls operate by calling people, most people Gen X and younger don't pick up their phones for unknown callers, so it's mostly old people being polled, plus the polls from conservative pollers purposely target conservative areas knowing that it will skew the polls how they intend for the polls to lean.
The last few elections should show that people are still overwhelmingly voting Democrat, but things are still far closer than they should be so we all gotta get out there and vote like our freedom from fascism depends on it, because it absolutely does.
20.58% of the US population are baby boomers as of 2022. Source March 2023.
Alternatively, 17% of the US population is over 65. Source July 2022.
Though those aged 50+ are about evenly split between Republican and Democrat Leaning, which was surprising to me. Source.
38.6% of the US population are southerners as of 2022. Source.
Obviously, the above are not additive but other than Georgia, southern states are red for the last Presidential election in 2020. Source.
Republican leaning and Democrat leaning about the same at 44% vs. 45% respectively. Interestingly, both parties are the same at 28% of the sampling with 41% identifying as Independant as of 2022. Source.
The source for thehill's article is from a CBS News poll which may or may not have an even demographic sampling of the US population. However, the above stats do suggest that it is probably accurate enough.
What's really important is what percentage of these samplings actually bother to vote. Only 49.1% of 18 - 24 year olds in the US are registered to vote, 62.7% for 25 - 24 year olds...increasing with age groups until 75 or older, where there is a slight drop to 76.6%. Source 2022. However, there was only a 62.8% turn-out rate during 2022 and was considered a 'surge'. Source 2022.
I really don't want to deep dive in available statistics to start figuring out analytics and predictions. I don't do this for a living and I am willing to devote no more than 30 minutes to all of this. And unfortunately, the statistics really didn't show what I'd expect, which was going to probably be that we can just blame the Boomers. It shows a pretty even split amongst the population. Though the trend seems to be that the older you are, the more likely you are to be registered to vote but not necessarily actually vote in the US.
Thank you mate!
[“In recent days, the New York Times/Siena College poll has gotten non-stop attention to the exclusion of nearly every other poll. But if you zoom out, you’ll see a more complete picture. There have been eight polls in the past three weeks showing President Biden leading or tied with Donald Trump,” Tyler said.]
This is the best summary I could come up with:
A year out from the 2022 midterms, every major outlet similarly predicted a grim forecast for President Biden,” Tyler said in the memo.
But Biden has consistently polled badly when voters are asked about his handling of the economy, with stubborn inflation easing very little over the last year.
He quoted economist Daniel Kahneman in the memo, who said: “Most successful pundits are selected for being opinionated, because it’s interesting, and the penalties for incorrect predictions are negligible.”
He echoed comments from Biden campaign manager Julie Chávez Rodriguez, who acknowledged in a memo last week that this will be a very close election.
Earlier Tuesday, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre also argued to reporters during the daily briefing that the latest set of polls should be treated with skepticism, pointing to recent examples of surveys failing to predict what would actually happen at the ballot box.
While some current and former Biden aides acknowledged the latest poll painted an unflattering picture, they dismissed the idea that the sky is falling on the president’s chances.
The original article contains 665 words, the summary contains 174 words. Saved 74%. I'm a bot and I'm open source!
i can understand harm reduction in picking your vote, but that should totally go out the window after the genocide Biden actively endorsed and enabled. and i'm saying this as a trans person, someone that stands to lose out fairly substantially if republicans gains power.
if your "harm reduction" is voting for a genocide endorser then something is clearly wrong, and you need steer the fuck away from the polls and into some direct action (if you're not already).
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