It will be somewhat challenging for them to meet all the criteria, but they would benefit from the attempt either way. I imagine being part of the bloc will be key to their demographic future after the war.
this post was submitted on 04 Oct 2023
168 points (97.2% liked)
World News
39522 readers
3439 users here now
A community for discussing events around the World
Rules:
-
Rule 1: posts have the following requirements:
- Post news articles only
- Video links are NOT articles and will be removed.
- Title must match the article headline
- Not United States Internal News
- Recent (Past 30 Days)
- Screenshots/links to other social media sites (Twitter/X/Facebook/Youtube/reddit, etc.) are explicitly forbidden, as are link shorteners.
-
Rule 2: Do not copy the entire article into your post. The key points in 1-2 paragraphs is allowed (even encouraged!), but large segments of articles posted in the body will result in the post being removed. If you have to stop and think "Is this fair use?", it probably isn't. Archive links, especially the ones created on link submission, are absolutely allowed but those that avoid paywalls are not.
-
Rule 3: Opinions articles, or Articles based on misinformation/propaganda may be removed. Sources that have a Low or Very Low factual reporting rating or MBFC Credibility Rating may be removed.
-
Rule 4: Posts or comments that are homophobic, transphobic, racist, sexist, anti-religious, or ableist will be removed. “Ironic” prejudice is just prejudiced.
-
Posts and comments must abide by the lemmy.world terms of service UPDATED AS OF 10/19
-
Rule 5: Keep it civil. It's OK to say the subject of an article is behaving like a (pejorative, pejorative). It's NOT OK to say another USER is (pejorative). Strong language is fine, just not directed at other members. Engage in good-faith and with respect! This includes accusing another user of being a bot or paid actor. Trolling is uncivil and is grounds for removal and/or a community ban.
Similarly, if you see posts along these lines, do not engage. Report them, block them, and live a happier life than they do. We see too many slapfights that boil down to "Mom! He's bugging me!" and "I'm not touching you!" Going forward, slapfights will result in removed comments and temp bans to cool off.
-
Rule 6: Memes, spam, other low effort posting, reposts, misinformation, advocating violence, off-topic, trolling, offensive, regarding the moderators or meta in content may be removed at any time.
-
Rule 7: We didn't USED to need a rule about how many posts one could make in a day, then someone posted NINETEEN articles in a single day. Not comments, FULL ARTICLES. If you're posting more than say, 10 or so, consider going outside and touching grass. We reserve the right to limit over-posting so a single user does not dominate the front page.
We ask that the users report any comment or post that violate the rules, to use critical thinking when reading, posting or commenting. Users that post off-topic spam, advocate violence, have multiple comments or posts removed, weaponize reports or violate the code of conduct will be banned.
All posts and comments will be reviewed on a case-by-case basis. This means that some content that violates the rules may be allowed, while other content that does not violate the rules may be removed. The moderators retain the right to remove any content and ban users.
Lemmy World Partners
News [email protected]
Politics [email protected]
World Politics [email protected]
Recommendations
For Firefox users, there is media bias / propaganda / fact check plugin.
https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/media-bias-fact-check/
- Consider including the article’s mediabiasfactcheck.com/ link
founded 2 years ago
MODERATORS
What do you think the major challenges are?
The Ukraine has a ton of corruption on all levels, which would be a big problem. The EU only allows corruption at the top.
There's a million things I don't know, ~~but the two big things that have to get mentioned first are the war and Turkey's inevitable opposition.~~
Turkey isn't in the EU, do they have much sway?
One problem I forgot to mention is people like me, who will be distracted while trying to contribute to the conversation, who overlook the fact that we're not talking about NATO.
I am very pleased to hear that Ukraine will join us.
I hope it will be a true and complete membership.
And finally, I wish I could be a little mouse in Putin’s office, watching him choke on his own balls.
Is this just a performance piece to show support without really doing anything? There's 0 chance a country at war could focus on making the changes required to join. There's also 0 chance they get admitted while at war, as that would obligate the EU to mobilize against Russia, which they really don't want to do.
..no.. This is just clearing some of the bureaucracy ahead of time, so that Ukraine can join more swiftly once the war is over.
Once the war is over it's going to take a decade+ to rebuild, probably 50+ years to clear the majority of minefields. That's going to require massive aid and investment that still can't be used to advance the country towards the EU.
This might seem either cynical or naive, depending on your opinion.
Russia will have to pay for the reconstruction, similar to how Germany had to pay for WW2. It will benefit both Ukraine and EU to have EU contractors do the work inside EU. Even if Russia takes 50 years to pay off the debt, the money is toll free and flowing from day one inside EU if Ukraine gets to join.
Yes, minefields will take a long time, unless new technology is deployed. There are still no-go zones from WW2. Hasn't stopped the world from turning.
The Ukrainian economy is predicted to be strong after the war. It's not just a poor shithole bomb field. Before and even during the war they were and are a key source of agricultural products to the entire world.
The reason Ukraine has been a poor country is not due to lack of production or unwillingness to produce. It's been due to corruption. Corruption originating in people linked to Russia. The current president pledged to clean the country from that and so he was attacked by the people benefitting from their poverty. Ukraine is strong and will be stronger within EU when it has rid itself of corruption.
Russia can't pay the costs of restoration they don't have the money, any amountof repayment is goingto be a token value to the true cost. We also learned from WWI, that saddling nations with crushing reparations is bad. The allies also invested in Germany after WWII, the soviets extracted penalties that are still noticeable today.
Countries just don't go back to normal after wars. There's even more opportunity for corruption while rebuilding. Entire cities will need rebuilding, "temporary" housing will need to be established, millions of refugees need places to return to that have power, water, and employment opportunities. Figuring out any looting or plundering is basically impossible beyond a token amount.
Rebuilding an apartment complex and replacing all the stuff inside is a long slow process that will need to happen hundreds of times.
Russia can’t pay the costs of restoration they don’t have the money, any amountof repayment is goingto be a token value to the true cost. We also learned from WWI, that saddling nations with crushing reparations is bad.
Two words: Mining concessions. Even creates jobs for Russians. Other countries then can guarantee loans against future profits from those. That's going to be very hard for any future Russian government to disagree with if it's the condition for lifting sanctions because if there's one thing Russia has then that's abundant natural resources. Would also do Russia good to not be able to earn that much foreign currency with resource exports for a change, giving an impulse to develop internally.
As to corruption, well, EPPO. There's already quite extensive working arrangements in place, as it stands I absolutely expect Ukraine to join EPPO (which would mean they can prosecute in Ukraine). It may not be an official requirement to join but that doesn't mean that it's not mandatory.
It's not going to be easy at all, but it is going to be an easier financial struggle if Ukraine is part of EU, both for Ukraine, EU and even for future Russia. Reuilding will be cheaper and the bill can be footed up front.
Point is that it's going to be an ongoing balance account rather than a direct loss account. EU doesn't have to wait for Russia to repay Ukraine, as long as there's an expectation that "most" of the money will be there.
EU don't want Russians to be kept in poverty for decades due to war crimes of previous generations, so eventually EU will accept some financial losses and write off the balance to keep Russians from becoming refugees in Europe. Things don't always cost what is charged, so there's a lot of levee to negotiate in decades to come, while still making money and keeping everyone afloat. Contractors who do this kind of work know how to ask for prepayment and do price gouging, so they'll be fine getting paid less than the suggested price.
I'm optimistic that things will work out, but it would be even easier if only Russia would accept the inevitable and cut the losses for everyone.
There’s 0 chance a country at war could focus on making the changes required to join
They've already been doing that: The judicial governance and media legislation reforms are complete, the rest are in progress.
There’s also 0 chance they get admitted while at war, as that would obligate the EU to mobilize against Russia, which they really don’t want to do.
Quoth Article 42.7 TEU:
If a Member State is the victim of armed aggression on its territory, the other Member States shall have towards it an obligation of aid and assistance by all the means in their power, in accordance with Article 51 of the United Nations Charter. This shall not prejudice the specific character of the security and defence policy of certain Member States.
Commitments and cooperation in this area shall be consistent with commitments under the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, which, for those States which are members of it, remains the foundation of their collective defence and the forum for its implementation.
...which can very well be read as "as NATO is trying very hard to not get involved with boots on the ground NATO states will stay out of it". And the non-NATO states aren't likely to send anything in the first place, being neutral, which means that the "aid and assistance by all the means in their power", "not prejudice the specific character of the security and defence policy of certain Member States", means weapons delivers and shit.
Now, I'm not saying that Ukraine will join before the Russians are kicked out, but it could be made to work.
If the EU admits Ukraine and doesn't mobilize against Russia beyond existing aid packages it makes the defensive pact useless. It doesn't matter that it may be justifiable to not send troops, according to the law, international relations are about actions.
Presumably everyone would organise behind the scenes to make the right public diplomatic moves to not damage the article. It wouldn't be easy, it won't be ideal, but it's a way that can be walked is all I'm saying. Also depends on war progress of course Russia besieging Lviv and Ukraine on the verge of kicking Russians out are two vastly different scenarios because what Ukraine would need is vastly different.
They are going to be admitted because Europe has decided that the cost of keeping Eastern European countries out is higher than the cost of admitting them.
The EU was born during a time of global order and peace. It was a economic experiment without a military to back it up. With the U.S. backing away from the world stage and becoming more insular those times have changed and the EU will need to change with it. I suspect that once Europe meets with Ukraine and the other candidates they will then look at what they will need to change to admit them. Single nation vetos, policies on corruption and democracy will probably all be up for review.
Before new countries accede to the union, the union needs to reform itself. All of this will take years anyway