this post was submitted on 19 Jun 2023
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93
Which Lemmy instance will be the biggest in 6 months? (self.nostupidquestions)
submitted 1 year ago by AskThinkingTim to c/nostupidquestions
82 comments fedilink hide all child comments
 

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[–] RightHandOfIkaros 63 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (3 children)

It probably would have been beehaw if they didnt defederate so early. Given the viewpoints of the people in charge there expressed in their comments on defederating and refederating, I suspect that Beehaw is going to have a consistent problem with constantly defederating and refederating.

Lemmy.world is most likely to grow the largest now because the barrier to entry is low compared to the other two. Additionally, the instance name gives the impression of a general or catchall instance moreso than lemmy.ml or beehaw.

[–] [email protected] 28 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Beehaw wants a safe space. They don’t want diversity; just the very rigid thoughts and opinions of which the owner approves. For this reason they don’t want most people to subscribe. And that’s fine. Every community can make their own rules.

[–] RightHandOfIkaros 24 points 1 year ago

Of course, every instance has the right to preserve their own echo chamber. That is not a problem, but it could be later when users keep seeing communities from one instance go away and come back, or users get effectively "banned" from interacting with those communities because they signed up on the wrong instance. Even if they refederate, they'll be seen as unreliable by everyone else.

Its like banning all people who drive a Toyota from parking in your parking lot because some people you don't like drive a Toyota. Sure, you have the right to do that, but you will be losing out on the parking fare of those big communities of Toyota drivers, and even people who dont drive Toyotas but see you banning them. Then you get less traffic, less users, people leave, and it becomes a parking lot that is 98% empty.

This leads to hyper segmented communities, which have benefits, but normies don't really like when a place only has 3 active users.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 1 year ago (2 children)

Agreed on the name thing, but the UI there is terrible. kbin is the most old school reddit-like one I've seen (admittedly I haven't seen much though) so I wonder if people will choose that in the end

[–] V4uban 5 points 1 year ago

UI will probably be fixed over time. Third party clients will arrive soon (some are already in early releases, such as Thunder: https://github.com/hjiangsu/thunder/issues)

[–] RightHandOfIkaros 3 points 1 year ago (2 children)

Kbin has potential, I even tried to sign up for kbin but registration was disabled. So I just signed up to lemmy.world instead. Unless kbin is reopened for registration, I foresee many others doing exactly the same thing.

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[–] T156 3 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

Beehaw was big, but from memory, they were third, behind lemmy.world, and lemmy.ml before they defederated. The gap would have probably become larger over time, since their account creation restrictions would limit growth, for better or worse.

[–] [email protected] 35 points 1 year ago (1 children)

No way it's not Lemmy.world, once all the normies (for lack of a better term) learn about it they'll go swarming. It's already growing fast

[–] AskThinkingTim 20 points 1 year ago (3 children)

The main reason it is growing is because you cannot sign up to Lemmy.ml if you tried right now.

[–] [email protected] 14 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Exactly, the easy access and low barrier of entry (like reddit, twitter, etc.) make it perfect to populate. That's kind of why some of the instances need signups right, to keep out the riff riff?

[–] AskThinkingTim 10 points 1 year ago (1 children)

It's also the second one in recommended servers. Lemmy.ml is nowhere to be seen.

[–] phil299 5 points 1 year ago

Correct me if I am wrong but I think the lemmy Devs run the .ml instance and they have specifically said the do not want to be in control of a large general instance as they have enough on there plate just refining the code base. Lemmy.world is I believe run by someone with a track record running a successful masterdon server so it looks well placed for growth atm

[–] sp6 5 points 1 year ago

Not sure about that. Even if .ml was open to new signups, there are quite a few reasons people would pick .world over it:

  1. .ml goes down more often than .world
  2. .world allows non-nudity NSFW content, while .ml does not allow any NSFW content
  3. A lot of people have concerns about "tankie" ownership of .ml (whether that's true or not), while the owners of .world seem more politically neutral

I got in before signups were closed, and have accounts on both .ml and .world, but have abandoned my .ml account for the above reasons

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[–] [email protected] 32 points 1 year ago (2 children)

I believe it is going to be Lemmy.World. Besides my home instance of Kbin, which I love dearly, it is the one I see and hear about the most.

It does make sense because it is open to sign-ups, is federated with pretty much everything (apart from closed off instances like Beehaw and the tankies at Grad), and has the advantage of being a Lemmy instance (which gives it name recognition).

In the long-term, I hope federation keeps this space open, even if there is one or some "main" instance(s) people use.

[–] MargotRobbie 32 points 1 year ago (3 children)

The good thing about having open sign-up is that you get a big userbase pretty quickly.

The bad thing about having open sign-up is that you have people squatting on usernames and impersonating other people.

I mean, can you imagine?

[–] [email protected] 14 points 1 year ago (1 children)

I absolutely couldn't imagine it at all.

Loved your performance in Suicide Squad, particularly the bit where you said it was Squad'in time and Squaded on the Joker

[–] MargotRobbie 12 points 1 year ago

That movie made me a Squad'illion dollars.

[–] LemmySoloHer 6 points 1 year ago (1 children)

I read this in a Harley Quinn accent so I'm 99% sure this is the actual Margot Robbie and is all the proof I need to consider this a verified account. Thank you Ms. Robbie for explaining things once again like you did in The Big Short!

[–] MargotRobbie 9 points 1 year ago (2 children)

If you like me explaining things, feel free to join the community I made for everyone to explain things.

https://lemmy.world/c/nowlemmyexplain

Also, preorder tickets for "Barbie", opening July 21st only in theaters. The writers are still on strike and I've got bills to pay.

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[–] rms1990 4 points 1 year ago

Take my username from my cold dead hands!

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[–] [email protected] 30 points 1 year ago (1 children)

lemmy.world because it's currently the biggest instance with open signups, and it has "lemmy" right there in the name. It's the obvious place for a novice to choose.

[–] dumbcrumb 9 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Exactly the reason why I chose it. Tried to sign up one some other ones and it wasnt working for some reason but lemmy.world worked instantly and has a nice name.

[–] T156 4 points 1 year ago

It was also the biggest instance, and if you're not too familiar with how the Fediverse stuff works, it's a no-brainer to sign up to them, just in case you ended up stuck on there. You'd still have stuff to look at, compared to smaller instances like startrek.website, which might only have three communities.

[–] T156 27 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (6 children)

Lemmy.World, almost certainly. As it is, they're on track to surpass lemmy.ml, and lemmy.ml has stated that they don't really want to be a big instance, but would prefer to be a smaller one like they used to be, redirecting new users to other instances, not least of all because the number of users was causing the server to implode.

Kbin is nice, and all, but it's technically its own thing, and isn't really a lemmy instance, even if it can be used as one. It's not quite as big as the others are.

Beehaw's account creation limits will almost certainly hamper any growth they will get, even if they decided to refederate with lemmy.world and sh.itjust.works again, but even then, they were still the third-biggest before defederating, so it might be a bit of a toss-up.

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[–] [email protected] 18 points 1 year ago (5 children)

Either kbin.social or Lemmy.world. Then again, this hyper growth period is ripe for disruption. Facebook is talking about an ActivityPub instance. Imagine if they poured resources into UX improvements and directed their 2.5 billion users to it. It would be the largest instance by far overnight.

[–] [email protected] 13 points 1 year ago

It would also be defederates instantly by hundreds of communities - people don't want corporations here because of what corpos have done to their own social media platforms.

The last thing I want to see is a meta community get big, because meta will probably start injecting ad posts directly into the community. I'm ok if it's just the users, I'm not ok if it's all the other baggage.

Not to mention meta will probably start with microblogging platforms first. Which is a bit harder to fuck with in the way meta can with Lemmy/kbin. I'd be more ok with it if they stayed there, I would however delete or park my Instagram accounts, especially if insta users can follow me directly on mastodon.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 1 year ago

If Meta makes a ActivityPub instance, what are the chances they'll pull the old Microsoft "Embrance, Extend, Extinguish" approach on us?

To be honest, I'd rather them stay away. Let this be it's own thing, untainted by the monopolies.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 1 year ago (5 children)

Dumb newbie question, is kbin.social the same feed as lemmy.world?

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 year ago

They both run off of the ActivityPub protocol (aka. The Fediverse), so they are able to see each other's content (as long as they don't defederate), but they are not intrinsically the same feeds.

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[–] zephyr 16 points 1 year ago

IMO, I hope none becomes "the biggest" or "the official". It's good for decentralization to have "competing" instances.

[–] [email protected] 14 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

currently it's looking like lemmy.world.

[–] [email protected] 12 points 1 year ago (2 children)

Biggest user base, or biggest in terms of posting? If it's the latter, definitely lemmynsfw

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[–] pandarisu 11 points 1 year ago (1 children)

One that hasn't been created yet

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[–] [email protected] 7 points 1 year ago (3 children)

Well spreading the userbase is the ideal situation.. when 1 becomes too big it gets an extreme server load and too much control over content created there.. The whole idea of lemmy is to spread out.. I can imagine if instance owners get this idea they would temporarily suspend account registration on their own trying to push alternative instances to maintain a good decentralized user base.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 year ago

I mean, we already know distribution will naturally follow a gaussian curve. Same as city population and so many other things. There won’t be many equally big instances. Only many equally small ones.

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