I'd love to buy your condos - but if we look at renting versus buying... It's cheaper to rent versus buy until mortgage rates drop below 6%. We'll just be sitting here adding to the mortgage payment pile until then.
A house is laughably out of reach.
It's worth noting that there just isn't enough supply that's actually in play in the market to rent or buy. Housing has two levels of demand because shelter is a need: there's the inelastic demand (I need shelter and I'll pay almost any price to make sure I have it) and elastic demand (I want to buy a house as an investment or a vacation property). This bubble isn't going to pop because it's not a true bubble; the supply of housing is below the need for housing that manifests as demand (the inelastic demand), which has sent the price skyrocketing because you've got people trying to satisfy a very deep inelastic demand with very shallow inelastic supply. That's had the knock-on effect of making it so that now the people just trying to find shelter are directly competing against people trying to find investments, and while the investors almost always have more money than you do, it also means that the price ceiling (the absolute maximum anyone is willing to pay for that property) gets raised even higher.
The reason why we got here, why the supply got so low on the first place, is because we basically stopped building houses after 2006. Even when we did start building houses again, I think the rate at which we're building them never fully recovered. There's a few other problems I'd be happy to get into, but here's the gist: the only housing really getting built without federal grant money is single family homes. We are NEVER going to solve the housing crisis by building not quite enough single family homes year over year. It just takes too much time and money to build too little capacity. So, what can you do about it?
Well, there's great news. If you live in a city or even a modest size town, and most people do, there's a really good chance you have a city council that meets regularly. This council has A LOT of control over what gets built in your city or town! In fact, they can control the zoning, and if your city is like mine, it's probably 90% exclusionary low-density single family home zoning by surface area, and probably has outrageous parking minimums that all but guarantee both a housing supply shortage and a lack of services (groceries, small cafes, etc) in those neighborhoods (which also raises your cost of living because now you NEED a car). They always have a public comment period so that people can raise issues that they feel are important.
Go to these council meetings and tell at them about how there isn't enough housing being built. They will cry about how they can't control the free market, but they can and do via zoning codes. If you keep the pressure up over time, you can make progress. If you meet other like-minded people there and network with them, you can make progress. You can get out there and make this change, it is within your reach.
As a Millennial, I'm confused why you wouldn't use the correct White Ninja meme on the left.
According to the convincing argument by Gary Stevenson, so long as wealth inequality persists, assets are going to just get more expensive.
It's not collapsing, Jack.
Going from 100 middle class people buying and selling 100 homes amongst each other to 2 extremely wealthy people 100 homes amongst each other and 98 people renting. The rich guys will price the assets out of reach of everyone else and make up the difference in rental profits.
Isn't it Blackstone and not blackrock that buys homes (and not that many)?
I see, so we must collapse Blackrock first.
Just know that black rock has 9% or higher controlling share in almost all companies and they colluded with vanguard and another company I don't remember and all those 3 companies have 9% controlling shares in each others so they all 3 vote same in almost every thing
Just be aware that BlackRock is capitalism’s final boss.
This is Berkshire Hathaway Erasure.
They are the most well known private equity firm, but when I learned they are in the 40th place of how many assets they own and manage I was flabbergasted... Worth giving in some more time to understand what happened to the financial world in the past 25-30 years. https://www.visualcapitalist.com/worlds-50-largest-private-equity-firms/ . Personally I can't wrap my head around how much money this ultra rich club has.
Wait, they own the equivalent of 1/3 US yearly GDP?
Not only do BlackRock, Vanguard, and State Street own everything, they also own shares in each other. Antitrust is dead; it’s basically one big monopoly. These three firms own corporate America
They own most of these shares via their index funds, which do not give them controlling power on the companies
Those shares are generally voting shares, giving them enormous power.
Very cool article!
As a millennial that was somehow able to afford a house this bubble needs to fucking pop.
I'll be locked into this house until I die and all of my friends and family will have to keep moving further away as they get priced out of their apartments each year. Before this I had moved 8 times in 6 years.
I bought mine during the housing crash in 2008. Shit was ballin. No way I could afford a house now.
Also a millennial. Wife and I got our condo right before everything shot up, got a nice 3.25% APR. Great mortgage honestly. But we've been trying to sell our condo for a YEAR now and I honestly think it's the bubble holding back a sale. The condo is just too expensive for what it is (and the horrific rise of small community HOA fees has gotten way out of hand...). We're priced right compared to others on the market, but selling condos is just stupid hard right now.
Sure I'd love it if we could sell now and get some nice profits from the sale, but I absolutely agree this bubble needs to pop!
I would love to buy a condo right now, but rent is cheaper than buying looking at a 5 year time frame until mortgage rates drop below at least 6%. It would be years before the interest and taxes portion of the payment dropped below our current rent.
We've literally agreed with our landlords who want to sell after we leave that we're all sitting still until mortgage rates drop. (Or I guess inflation rises high enough to offset the debt versus investment part of the pile.)
And this is all after moving to Utah from the west coast to get cheaper housing in general... Although the lower paychecks basically balance it all out 😂
Complains that bubble needs to pop. Is trying to sell a condo but has it priced too high to attract any buyers. Doesn't lower price.
My dude, your desire for more money is the bubble that's holding back the sale.
Your scenario is a microcosm of the whole market.
I'll never understand people like this. Most of us will never own a home at this rate. Yet there are folks, who already own their home, who are complaining they can't switch their home like it's some trading-card game. They're part of the problem.
Yup, I'm a total cocroach and the scum of society for wanting to have somewhere that me and my pregnant wife can live with room to grow with the little one.
I suppose we should decide to not sell and instead rent it out at extreme rates? Or perhaps raise a child in a place who would never have a room of their own?
I fully acknowledge that I'm privileged to have gotten a decent job and we happened to be in the right place at the right time, but comparing a single family trying to better their circumstances to the oligarchs and international entities who hoard land and homes for profit is a shit thing to do.
You're not a cockroach, but you should have considered attempting to move before conceiving. You were in a privileged position, not because you were capable enough to find a decent job, which you are and should be proud of, but that you have a whole home for your family already. No one forced you to add an additional member, and thus feel overcrowded. There are consequences to your decisions.
I'm not comparing you to an oligarch, but you have to understand that many young adults who want to own just their first home simply can't.
Holy fuck man. Fuck off and go eat the rich. I'm not your enemy. You are owed no explanation or glimpse into the YEARS of family planning and medical problems we've faced to be where we are now. Just because someone is able to squeak their way into the game the world leaders play is not an attack on you.
Sorry, I forgot you're the exception to the rule. No one else has ever had to deal with medical issues preventing them from having children, as well as not having a home. You're the main character and everyone else can "fuck off".
I'll let you get back to your little pity party, dealing with the effects of your choices. I hope you can make a nice profit on your current home, since that's clearly what you want.
I'm assuming they're looking to buy after this condo sale. If that's the case, they may not have much choice as their next place will be similarly insanely inflated, so they need that money to get the monthly payment to something affordable.
That's the position my partner and I are in. We have equity in our house, but it's mostly because it has "appreciated" to a level that we could never afford, despite making a combined over quarter million dollars a year (due to living in a high cost of living area). Even if we sold our house at full inflated market price and used it all as a down payment, we'd be hard pressed to afford a place with the same price.
It's not that I'm complaining about the equity, it just doesn't get me much when everything else is insanely inflated. We barely squeaked into the place we're in because COVID tanked interest rates and prices in our area.
Yup, once we sell we won't even be able to buy in the local area near our families. Mortgage rates are still stupid, we'd never be able to afford having an actual house here
Also its a fucking condo.
And?
Only a small subset of folks want to live in a condo.
...and? This isn't news.
We're the lowest priced among the competition. I don't care about "more money", but my family is starting to grow so we need to be somewhere other than a tiny condo and I can't do that selling at a loss
Will anyone buy it at the current price? No? Then I'm sorry to say but you have not yet reached the market clearing price.
Yes actually. Almost everyone who's toured in person has said the price is the right for the market, but they're generally not finding specific things they're looking for. We're a backup for one person right now, and the things turning people away are out of our control (HOA prices, neighbor to a public service). Couple people went for other properties due to the lack of AC in ours (Would cost $14,000 for a mini-split, so not cost effective while selling) and it's totally understandable.
What if they start a huge fire and burnt down a ton of houses if they couldn't hold out anymore?
No, but they can remain solvent longer than you can survive on the streets.
And that's how they get you.
they have enough money to remain solvent for generations.
and they're using our retirement money to do it
What impact would a nationwide guerilla campaign of vandalism against say, Berkshire do?
I think we need more than vandalism. But it couldn't hurt. Where's Mario?
Why stop at Berkshire? Vandalize any home that sits vacant. We have more vacant homes than homeless in America. We just need to make vacant homes too big of a risk
No no no open the house to people that need to crash with a roof over their head. Squatting is the answer. Maybe eve some destructive squatting.
That's definitely a more productive solution
“Productive destructive squatting” sounds like a euphemism for part of my morning routine
Or luigi blackrock