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Game | Date
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Donkey Kong Country Returns HD | Jan 16, 2025 Xenoblade Chronicles X: Definitive Edition | Mar 20, 2025 Metroid Prime 4 | 2025
Third best selling console of all time. Behind DS (154.02 M) and PlayStation 2 (155 M)! Switch is going great, but I don't think it will be able to take over either of those.
TotK is selling really good. It should be able to cross BotW. Let's wait and see.
BTW I just realized DS is less than a million behind PS 2! Wow, what a close one.
Thanks for the link, and posting the summary!
@picandocodigo it's averaging about 20M units a year, so assuming Switch 2 makes the Switch 1 totally obsolete, we'd need another year+ of strong sales to rise to number one. If the Switch 1 continues to be sold after Switch 2 is released (not fully backwards compatible, Switch 1 price drop, Switch 2 is just more expensive), then less than a year or strong sales plus another couple years of long tail sales to get over the hump.
If it overtakes, I can imagine the most likely scenario to make it happen are - Switch 2 is considered unambiguous successor at $350-$400, Switch 1 price drop of only like $25-$50, basically just to clearance out the old stock, except no switch lite replacement for the first year, so the now $150-$175 switch lite continues to to rack up sales at a ridiculously apealing price. Obviously they could easily reach 1at place if they did a really agressive price drop but that doesn't seem likely for nintendo at all- a small price drop on the lite, especially if the choices are $150 Lite, $250 V2, $300 OLED, $400 Switch 2
That's interesting.
If Switch 2 is completely backwards compatible with Switch games, and Switch ( or Switch Lite) is much cheaper than Switch 2, I can see some people getting Switch instead.
Let's see what happens.
My Switch games collection is the biggest games collection I've ever had, so it better be backwards compatible 😅
Haha, same here. Not counting subscription games, my Switch games library is bigger than my PS5, PS3 and PS Vita's library combined.
The Nintendo Switch will absolutely pass the ps2.
ps2 had multiple price cuts. The Nintendo Switch has had none.
I don't think Nintendo believes in price cuts. Though, I haven't checked the data on their previous consoles.
@picandocodigo @slimerancher I think you're underselling how important the price cuts were to the PS2's longevity, and I don't think Nintendo is willing to go nearly that far. The PS2, like the Nintendo Switch, launched at $299. 2 years later it dropped to $199. Then steady price cuts all the way to $129 preceeding the launch of the PS3 in 2006 at $499/$599. I think it's safe to say that the enormous price difference played a huge role in it's ongoing sales past the PS3 launch. PS2 launched in March 2000, and 7 years later it had sold 117 million units, taking us just a few months past the PS3 launch. In the next 5 years the PS2 sales racked up another 40 million units, or about 25% of all PS2's sold occurred after it's successor's launch.
If the Switch were to follow the same trajectory and a Switch 2 launched this holiday season, we'd see another 40+ million units sold over the next 5 years, ending in over 170 million units sold. But there are a number of reasons to doubt this will happen.
#1 there might literally just not be enough chips left to do that- it's speculated that Nvdia stopped production of the chips and there's a finite number left, which may fall short of that goal.
#2 Nintendo seems very reluctant to drop prices. The PS2 by this point was less than half of the launch price and only 65% of its cost after the first major price drop. The Switch is 100% of its launch price, and I believe in some regions it even got a price hike.
#3 it seems implausible that the Switch 2 will cost as much as a PS3 did at launch (more expensive than the Series S and PS5 digital, equivalent to Series X and PS5 disc). That means the price delta between the Switch and Switch 2 will necessarily be far narrower than the PS2/PS3, so continued sales after the Switch 2 launch are unlikely to be as robust.
#4 Sony wasn't trying to pump up the PS2 numbers, selling it nearly until the PS4 came out was a strange phenomenon born of unusual circumstances. I don't think Nintendo will have any interest in selling the Switch alongside it's successor except to clear out inventory, for the same reason the Wii U and Switch V1 were both discontinued promptly after their successor's came out.
I'm honestly kind of shocked at how few people bought a GameCube. It was such an amazing console, it deserved better. I guess that's what happens when you're in the same console generation as the PS2.
I can say the same about the Wii U, to be honest. Yeah the hardware was gimmicky and weak, but it had some stellar games. What's sad is that most of its killer apps are on Switch now, so the Wii U is all but obsolete. Obviously it's great that they're on Switch, but I know it's gonna hurt the Wii U's legacy in a few years when the Wii U and Switch are both retro. "I'm gonna emulate some retro games! The Wii U has some excellent titles, let's play- Wait, these are all better on Switch."
@PastaRhythm @nintendo The PS2 was such a juggernaut and the GameCube was seen as more of the same from the N64, but with smaller gimmicky discs. Plus the Xbox dropped, and online computer gaming with broadband T1 connections really took off. The Wii U was poorly marketed and poorly understood. Had they given it a different name to differentiate completely from the Wii it probably would’ve done better.
I loved my Wii U. As you say, there were some amazing games. Nintendo Land was an underrated party game. I had so many nights of fun with friends playing Nintendo Land, Smash Bros Wii U, Mario Kart 8, and more. I won't deny Star Fox Zero was a major disappointment and pain in the ass with the controller gimmicks, but in general it was a fun console. At least Nintendo learned from it, the failure of the Wii U was probably 90% marketing. Not saying it could have done as well as the Switch, but it could have done way better had they presented and named it better.
Will TotK surpass BotW?
I believe so. What do you think?
I think so too, I'd be suprised if it didn't!