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This is a bigger deal than I suspect people might realize. The reason there’s been destabilizing civil wars in Syria and Libya is their Russian bases. Now they might have to go through NATO country waters for basically everything in the Mediterranean.
Whether it’s wise is going to be up to history. I’m not saying that. I’m saying you could have predicted who would have a civil war 15 years ago with a map of Russian bases.
Yeah the moment the civil war ended in Syria I started chatting with folks about what this means for Russia’s presence in Ukraine. They can’t handle both of these crises at once. To say they need this warm water port Is beyond an understatement. This is as significant to Russia as the US losing Israel in the Middle East with regards to ME power projection. Their entire hub of power projection for the region just vanished along with their only real warm water port.
This is as significant to Russia as the US losing Israel in the Middle East with regards to ME power projection.
Russia's situation is worse. If the US lost Israel, the US would still have bases in Bahrain in the Persian Gulf and Djibouti in the Red Sea for power projection in the ME plus others. Russia's other warm water ports are in the Black Sea (which can be cut off by NATO member Türkiye or Kamchatka in the Pacific far from most everything else in Russia.
Fair US does have “backups.” And yeah there’s Black Sea but that’s why I said “basically”
Good.
Sounds like good news to me
In 2014 Ukraine, Russia invaded and annexed Crimea to save the port in used historically (which belonged to Ukraine). I'm sure Syria is reading the history books to see if Russia tries that again in Tartus.