Six months is a long time in politics, and Albo’s popularity has slipped considerably since then. A lot of those mid-suburban seats that Labor unexpectedly swept in the last election will be up in the air, and electoral funding reforms are likely to hit the teals hard, to the conservatives’ advantage.
this post was submitted on 26 Dec 2024
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IIRC July was also at the start of the CFMEU allegations, before the corrupt government administration came into effect.
The CFMEU had around 125,000 members as of a year ago, and obviously we can't assume they'll all follow their leaders' advice and swing lefter-than-Labor but having seen the huge presence of other union members marching along side them and having seen the former Labor supporters in my union express their shock and betrayal, there's a real chance of that big chunk of the labour movement abandoning Labor.
The observation I found most interesting here is obvious but hadn't occurred to me. That is that the RBA is going to find it increasingly difficult to justify not reducing interest rates going into the election. As much as that has almost nothing to do with the government if voters are feeling economic pressures lifting and the ALP can get some media traction with it they've got a chance.
if voters are feeling economic pressures lifting
Only 1/3 of homeowners have a housing loan, they'll be the ones benefiting directly. Investors will not pass on any savings to renters and those owning outright will see a savings hit, going backwards.
We've just starting seeing some minor impact on lowering housing prices making it easier for people to buy a place. For example
That combined with a reduced immigration rate should see property prices at least stabilise at the stupid levels they're at now, rather then keep increasing and making it worse.
Cheaper interest rates might give a small short term sugar hit to a few but cheap interest rates are a sign of structural and dysfunctional failure, they allow people to do stupid shit they should not, like constantly bid up housing prices. We have loose lending laws, as the IMF has pointed out for years, compounding the problem and a buch of other dunmb shit like first home owners grants all making it worse.
We have a planet being destroyed before our eyes and we're getting a nation of fools electing donkeys. Nothing new under the sun there though.
The two party preferred polling rarely exceeds like 4 percentage points difference between ALP/Coalition, if only 10% of home owners notice a difference and shift their vote it's back towards a likely ALP victory.
Those electoral funding reforms don't come into effect until after the next election IIRC.
It will be interesting to see if the Teals revert to Libs or if they can hold or even expand their footprint.
i really wish particularly in brisbane teals would run against the greens in the inner city, feel like a teal/labor qld would be best
They inherited a bit of a mess thanks to covid, the global economy and the previous government. Inflation seems under control but I think they could still be punished by the many people who are struggling. Also they have created divisions with unions and other traditional supporters that are going to be an ongoing issue. The ALP are on some dangerous ground blessing some unions over others depending on factional support and politics instead of the interests of workers. They shouldn't take anything for granted.
A huge amount of power resides with the ultra wealthy who own the media platforms. Musk could go on the attack as he thinks he is God-Emporer of the world now. Murdoch will be hostile. Industry groups will be funding campaigns. Foreign governments and corporations will be funding anti-democratic, divisive politics to weaken us. They will need to work very hard and be very creative to get their message across in this environment.
I think we could very easily wake up to a Dutton government with the labor machine shaking their heads in disbelief. A huge proportion of the population get a completely different algorithmic feed of what is going on in the world and then they all form their echo chambers and it takes over the work place and community. The ALP will need to get out in the community and see how broken the information environment has become.
And for the people who think Albo has been piss-weak on some issues, the reality is the ALP can't piss off the wrong people because of the above. They are going to have to sit in the middle, placate big business and fossil fuels and nibble away at stuff and be content with being the coalition-lite. Put a minor party or independent above them if you don't like it but this isn't the time to walk away.
I think this is really insightful analysis, great post. I often wonder why some of you key points around the headwinds that Labor faces (and progressive politics in general) don't really get much of an airing.
It's so obvious that LNP's messages get boosted and the Labor ones get blunted when you pay attention to it. Sam happens when LNP are in Govt, so it's not just a "going the opposite a voice- type thing.
Don't even start on the amount of dark and dirty money, backroom influence and corporate interference.
Feels bleak sometimes, but sanity will prevail at some point. 🤞
They inherited a bit of a mess thanks to covid, the global economy and the previous government.
I like how during the 10 years of lnp government it felt like we heard "we're cleaning up their mess!" what felt like all the time. But I don't recall this government saying it beyond the first few weeks. Are their political strategists dumb? Maybe.
What is the point of saying it if the press won't report it?
There were probably extenuating circumstances after 2019 but I have no idea what was going on under the Hockey and Morrison treasuries. Hockey might have been disinterested but Morrison was a disaster. They kept on taking on more debt and where was it going? Not increased services for taxpayers. Mates? Waste? Corruption? Who knows?
Our percentage of government debt to GDP still isn't too bad in global terms. Even under the coalition while it was lax management and dodgy deals it wasn't going to break the nation.
It was certainly going up under Gillard but very notable the massive outrage in the press ceased as that continued and considerably worsened under successive coalition governments. Extremely biased press coverage and complete dumbarsery from the Australian public to accept the media spin when the debt figures are public record.
This is why i can't blame them for going on the attack with the CFMEU, could you imagine the hysterical hyperventilating hypocrites howling about those allegations for the rest of the year, i could, i could see the Murdoch Propagandists salivating at the possibility.
Labor had to head that shit off, or lose the narrative for too long.
Also can't hurt the Unions to not look like the stereotypes the corporate vampires are always trying to paint them as. I hope in time the will be able to see wood for the trees.
In the Unions defence though, the Albanese could help communicate what that larger picture looks like for them.
A PM Dutton would be unhinged AF.